Your thinking and mine are much alike here, I believe. - Edit 1
Before modification by Joel at 23/11/2010 07:36:20 PM
It's only when the generation that remembers the Long March is out of power that the Korean situation could be peacefully resolved as the result of Chinese intervention, and then only if the people in charge of the PLA see that their greed would be hindered by a war on the Korean peninsula. Until those two prerequisites are met, I do not see a peaceful resolution of the situation that would have any pretense of being a long-term solution.
Notice that one of those prerequisites has the implied requirement that the West has actually stepped up and said "We are ready to fight". If China does not see resolve on the part of the US, South Korea and Japan, and a willingness to resolve the situation by military means, China will not be ready to make any significant concession at all. What incentive do they have?
The danger in waiting is that the younger generation may feel that China will be stronger if the West is weakened through war. A war that saw North Korea destroyed but potential economic rivals Japan and South Korea ruined might be an economic boon for China if they let North Korea start something and then step back and not assist, essentially leaving North Korea to the mercy of the US and South Korea.
Plausible deniability is the term I'm thinking of. China is perfectly willing to play a game like that. The question then becomes one of the damage caused by a war now vs. the damage caused by a war ten years from now. The former is certainly preferable to the latter.
Notice that one of those prerequisites has the implied requirement that the West has actually stepped up and said "We are ready to fight". If China does not see resolve on the part of the US, South Korea and Japan, and a willingness to resolve the situation by military means, China will not be ready to make any significant concession at all. What incentive do they have?
The danger in waiting is that the younger generation may feel that China will be stronger if the West is weakened through war. A war that saw North Korea destroyed but potential economic rivals Japan and South Korea ruined might be an economic boon for China if they let North Korea start something and then step back and not assist, essentially leaving North Korea to the mercy of the US and South Korea.
Plausible deniability is the term I'm thinking of. China is perfectly willing to play a game like that. The question then becomes one of the damage caused by a war now vs. the damage caused by a war ten years from now. The former is certainly preferable to the latter.
A catspaw is always more useful than a proxy, after all; the former can be left to twist in the wind once they've done your dirty work, and it costs you nothing. Same reason I think it's so absurd that the West is so credulous about North Korea suddenly developing:
1) An nuclear engineering cadre capable of producing nuclear weapons,
2) the technical equipment necessary to process the materials,
3) the uranium ore to enrich by that means,
4) the missile technology necessarily to deliver it to the other side of the Pacific and
5) the iridium and other rare metals necessary to construct such missiles
all out of the blue. I mean, sure, China and Russia may have armed them during the Korean Non-War, but SURELY that's not still going on (despite the fact that it's an open secret Pakistan got the bomb from China, which appears quite willing to provide unstable and/or radical governments with nuclear weapons in the interest of geopolitics and personal wealth).
It's ALL about plausible deniability: North Korea can hold South Korea, Japan and, very soon, even CA hostage, and even it all goes to hell and a nuclear exchange occurs Chinas biggest worry is that the wind might shift inland and carry some fallout their way. Meanwhile, the home of 1/6 of America, and much of our technological base, will be glow in the dark glass, and Japan will likely be caught up in the colateral damage (drawing in still more of the US military fervently hoping AEGIS is as good as advertised). They won't even have to make excuses for Kim anymore, they can just cut him loose with no remaining option except an all or nothing impossible to win war, then wring their hands and weep crocodile tears over what the foolish Koreans and Americans have done to each other and their allies.
I don't see much hope of the younger generation, more thoroughly indoctrinated with nationalism than any for some time (which is saying a lot in China) and conditioned by the response to Tiananmen to view all dissent as treason, moderating or reconciling. In fact, it might even be that IS the best long term hope, that the younger generation is so convinced of Chinas superiority and ascendancy that they'll force the issue too soon, before victory is as certain as they've been taught. But for right now, hell, since Nixon infamously went to China (great Commie fighter that he was), "what incentive do they have?" remains very much the question. Right now they can continue doing as they always have and we'll continue shipping them all our industry in exchange for more debt.
I am so SICK of people so terrified of action they'd rather commit suicide by default. Seems inescapable anymore though, which is part of my frustration and disgust.