They're getting aid from South Korea now, and killing them anyway. - Edit 1
Before modification by Joel at 24/11/2010 01:25:32 AM
The underlying reality on the peninsula is that war makes no sense. Both sides know it beyond dispute. Here’s what happens if war breaks out: half of South Korea’s population is within 50 miles of North Korea’s arsenal of almost 12,000 artillery guns and rockets. Those weapons are more than sufficient to destroy much of what South Korea has created in over half a century. As for North Korea, a U.S. air and missile attack would destroy what’s left of that country and leave its dictatorship in want of a home. Thus, war would destroy both sides, and neither side can afford war.
American political leaders (not to mention more than a few posters here) wanting to look tough will undoubtedly propose some U.S. military actions, but fortunately for them, they won't get their way. Any game of chicken will have to be up to our South Korean allies. It's South Korea's decision whether there will be an all out conflict, and they do not want an all-out conflict.
Beyond question, Pyongyang knows all this. So when they ratchet up the danger level, they’re doing it for some other reason. Explanation No. 1 is that the shooting is part of Pyongyang’s succession problems. The Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Il is in poor health and fading. It appears that he has jumped over his second son and intends to empower his third son instead. This third son, Kim Jong-Un, has some exalted military title and he may be ordering the high-wire military actions to show how tough he is.
Explanation No. 2. Asia experts think that Pyongyang is taking these actions as the only way it knows of getting our full attention. And what they think Pyongyang wants is to resume the usual negotiations—our concerns regarding their nuclear program and their desires to have more economic assistance. In fact, that has been the message the North Koreans have provided quietly during several recent visits by private American groups. From their point of view and from their experiences, Washington pays attention to them only when the warning flags go up.
American political leaders (not to mention more than a few posters here) wanting to look tough will undoubtedly propose some U.S. military actions, but fortunately for them, they won't get their way. Any game of chicken will have to be up to our South Korean allies. It's South Korea's decision whether there will be an all out conflict, and they do not want an all-out conflict.
Beyond question, Pyongyang knows all this. So when they ratchet up the danger level, they’re doing it for some other reason. Explanation No. 1 is that the shooting is part of Pyongyang’s succession problems. The Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Il is in poor health and fading. It appears that he has jumped over his second son and intends to empower his third son instead. This third son, Kim Jong-Un, has some exalted military title and he may be ordering the high-wire military actions to show how tough he is.
Explanation No. 2. Asia experts think that Pyongyang is taking these actions as the only way it knows of getting our full attention. And what they think Pyongyang wants is to resume the usual negotiations—our concerns regarding their nuclear program and their desires to have more economic assistance. In fact, that has been the message the North Koreans have provided quietly during several recent visits by private American groups. From their point of view and from their experiences, Washington pays attention to them only when the warning flags go up.
Twice this week alone; I'd say the "danger level" is pretty high for those being murdered. As I noted above, another Guardian article contends that the South Korean ship was destroyed because of Explanation No. 1. I shudder to think how the world would respond if Obama had felt the need to destroy a few vessels in the Mexican Navy before his inauguration was secure.
As for explanation number two, in the wake of the their earlier act of war this week and the revelation of a second nuclear weapons facility they'd never mentioned before South Korea has publicly stated interest in the return of US nuclear missiles, so I'd say they have our attention. They're getting monetary and humanitarian aid from South Korea and developing the ability to nuke targets on the other side of the Pacific with impunity; what further concessions do you think we should allow them to extort?
A game of chicken ends when one side of the other blinks. When people are dying that's not what's going on: This is a case of "how many of your people will you let them kill before you do more than politely ask them to stop?" The whole business of not resisting North Korean aggression because they might attack South Korea was absurd enough when it was obvious they'd do that anyway sooner or later, but now that they're actually doing so it's truly incomprehensible. We can't make them stop what they're doing because it would force them to do what they're doing?
For now, yes, South Korea will call the ball. Until/unless China has North Korea nuke Tokyo or L.A. on their behalf that will remain so, but waiting until then, tolerating multiple lethal acts of war within the same WEEK simply because we don't want people killed by acts of war seems positively insane to me. You don't want war, fine, but it's not me you have to convince, it's the people shooting at you.