Interesting comparisons. - Edit 1
Before modification by Joel at 06/02/2011 12:47:17 AM
And it's certainly important to remember they are just that and no more; nothing prevents Egypt from following an entirely novel path of their own. Yet the revolutions in other countries went the way they did for reasons (although since, by Wikipedias numbers, it's 98% Christian, in some form, we can hardly call it a "Muslim country" ). The Iranian and Indonesian models seem the most likely course for Egypt, but neither is a given.
That's the thing: I don't consider a repressive theocracy a given if Mubarak falls, I simply consider it a strong possibility, and how I feel about Mubaraks potential ouster hinges entirely on whether that possibility is realized. I won't say that, as an American, I'd be thrilled at the prospect of a democractic secular state opposed to US policy, but it wouldn't alarm me on behalf of both Egyptians and the rest of the world the way a sharia state would. Again, such a state will not be automatic in the absence of Mubarak, but it would be a very likely possibility, and if it did materialize your own article says this:
That seems legitimate cause for concern, because however dismissive people wish to be of the idea Islamic militants are simply using protesters as pawns (as the Ayatollah did) and that the public disavowals of sharia are dishonest, there is real reason from the mouths of MB leaders to believe otherwise, and people paid to be right about Mid-East forecasts consider that a serious possibility. I obviously wouldn't consider Iman Al Zawahiri coming home to Egypt to torture thousands of others in cells he once occupied an improvement over Mubarak, but something like Indonesia just as obviously would be a vast improvement. How I feel about Mubaraks removal, if it does, in fact, occur, depends entirely on what replaces him; all we know for certain is that something will if he goes.
That's the thing: I don't consider a repressive theocracy a given if Mubarak falls, I simply consider it a strong possibility, and how I feel about Mubaraks potential ouster hinges entirely on whether that possibility is realized. I won't say that, as an American, I'd be thrilled at the prospect of a democractic secular state opposed to US policy, but it wouldn't alarm me on behalf of both Egyptians and the rest of the world the way a sharia state would. Again, such a state will not be automatic in the absence of Mubarak, but it would be a very likely possibility, and if it did materialize your own article says this:
"If they do gain control, it's going to be almost impossible for the people to take it back," says former State Department official Leslie Gelb, referring to the Brotherhood. Ian Johnson, a journalist who has written on the movement, quoted its former leader as saying he "still wants to impose Islamic law, or sharia, in Egypt, but says he would do so slowly, building up support at the grass-roots level rather than imposing it from above, as was done in Iran."
That seems legitimate cause for concern, because however dismissive people wish to be of the idea Islamic militants are simply using protesters as pawns (as the Ayatollah did) and that the public disavowals of sharia are dishonest, there is real reason from the mouths of MB leaders to believe otherwise, and people paid to be right about Mid-East forecasts consider that a serious possibility. I obviously wouldn't consider Iman Al Zawahiri coming home to Egypt to torture thousands of others in cells he once occupied an improvement over Mubarak, but something like Indonesia just as obviously would be a vast improvement. How I feel about Mubaraks removal, if it does, in fact, occur, depends entirely on what replaces him; all we know for certain is that something will if he goes.