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I'm backing Romney currently but let me point out some stuff Isaac Send a noteboard - 30/01/2012 12:18:41 AM
First big one, the poll is utterly meaningless, because of this at the end:

"The survey of 737 registered voters, taken Tuesday through Saturday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points."

1) Registered voters is a better gage then 'people', but republicans simply vote with higher frequency then independents or democrats.

2) It's not really a 5% error, because if you're going to look at 12 'battleground states' its only logical to look at them individually. For instance, did Santorum pick up Pennsylvania, his home state? That would be a big deal. Of course, had they sampled 737 votes broken equally by 12 states we'd have about 60 people per state, and the margins on that are huge.

So this isn't really a useful poll, it's just Gallup and USA today wanting a quick cheap one someone can right an article about. I also kinda find it silly to run polling on anything but specific upcoming states mid-primary because they know, like I know, that a single thin victory in one state can flip 5 or 10 points in the next one... also Gallup's polls were horribly off in 2008 primaries so I don't really trust them. Just for perspective, here was the polling this time four years ago, RCP Average

Poll Date McCain Romney Huckabee Giuliani Paul Thompson Spread
RCP Average 1/29/2008 26.7 20.0 18.7 13.3 5.2 -- McCain +6.7

And that was just when McCain was starting to pick up steam and Thompson had dropped out.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

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For those still wondering why the Republicans need to nominate Romney..... - 29/01/2012 11:25:25 PM 978 Views
That's of swing states only. - 29/01/2012 11:37:48 PM 693 Views
Well, we can assume that most other states will stay Red or Blue as usual..... - 29/01/2012 11:58:25 PM 533 Views
Assumptions are rarely a wise decision making method. *NM* - 30/01/2012 04:21:23 AM 263 Views
In this case they're a pretty good measure. - 30/01/2012 02:09:30 PM 521 Views
The general predictability of our voting process kind of bothers me - 30/01/2012 02:21:58 PM 619 Views
It's much the same elsewhere - just not as obvious because there's no electoral college. - 30/01/2012 10:47:15 PM 639 Views
The French are doomed. - 31/01/2012 12:32:46 AM 514 Views
That is one of the problems with focusing so much attention and national and presidential politics - 01/02/2012 05:21:25 PM 601 Views
Damn good point - 01/02/2012 06:47:06 PM 530 Views
I live in a town of about 10000 people - 01/02/2012 07:35:13 PM 572 Views
What about Massachusetts? - 30/01/2012 03:55:46 PM 700 Views
I'm backing Romney currently but let me point out some stuff - 30/01/2012 12:18:41 AM 586 Views
Romney has the best chance of winning against Obama, but he's also the most like him. - 30/01/2012 12:20:26 AM 510 Views
It will be much better..... - 30/01/2012 12:34:46 AM 617 Views
Your abuse of the ellipsis is starting to irritate me. - 30/01/2012 04:28:04 AM 844 Views
Instead of ..... , I can end each sentence with a or - 30/01/2012 01:05:51 PM 594 Views
you are already getting 50% of what you want under obama - 30/01/2012 08:04:57 AM 625 Views
I would love to hear you give details about this "50%" from Obama,,,,, *NM* - 30/01/2012 01:04:25 PM 217 Views
Sad but true. - 06/02/2012 03:44:44 AM 489 Views
I wouldn't rule out Paul's chances vs. Obama, either. - 02/02/2012 12:00:45 AM 739 Views
If Ron Paul is the republican nominee, he will be the next President. - 02/02/2012 12:24:22 AM 584 Views
First time voters don't make up 50% of the electorate. - 02/02/2012 06:36:09 PM 446 Views
He might win Minnesota - 02/02/2012 07:05:22 PM 615 Views
Like Ventura? I see your point. *NM* - 02/02/2012 08:40:25 PM 204 Views
and the guy with a satallite dish on his head - 02/02/2012 08:49:43 PM 555 Views
Huh. - 02/02/2012 10:02:36 PM 689 Views
no it ended that is an old story - 02/02/2012 11:29:42 PM 513 Views
btw, taking a blind guess here, but - 02/02/2012 12:05:16 AM 527 Views
I can neither confirm nor deny that..... *NM* - 02/02/2012 04:30:19 AM 218 Views

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