Falling in and out of Communion with various Anglican Churches isn't entirely new, although the Realignment does pose some very new problems. Still, it's the hyperconservative Anglicans who really are least likely to join the Roman Catholic Church. You're close about Anglican identity, but I think a better statement is "Most of what it emans to be Anglican is to see yourself as Not Catholic."

I still think schism is relatively unlikely. Impaired communion for the foreseeable future, though, I think is nearly certain.

EDIT: Part of the reason I find schism unlikely and joining the Roman Catholic church almost unthinkably improbable is the huge leeway various churches get. There's no real reason for Anglicans to convert en masse to Roman Catholicism when they can just leave the ECUSA and go to the Church of Kenya or the Southern Cone. That way they get to keep everything, including the name. There's just no real reason for Episcopalians to go Catholic when they can stay Anglican; either way, the authority goes overseas.