1. Moiraine was one of the few to hear the Foretelling by Gitara that the Dragon had been Reborn. Without someone to relay this juicy bit of information to the Shadow, they would continue on their merry way, oblivious to that fact.

2. Seeking to become the new Naeblis, Moiraine stops at nothing to hide her true identity. She bonds the juggernaut Blight Battler Lan Mandragoran as a Warder as her front. She destroys Merean in New Spring to hide the existence of a Black Ajah.

3. It's somewhat telling that she knows the weave for balefire so well, a weave the Tower pretty strictly forbids. The obvious explanation is that she was trained by a female Forsaken to do their bidding, but Moiraine does no ones bidding but her own (as mentioned in point no. 2).

4. Moiraine uses her heretofore latent ta'veren sensing abilities (ala Siuan) to figure out the location of Rand, Mat, and Perrin. Then she leads them straight to the Blight for a rendezvous with two male Forsaken lying in ambush. Her plan backfires when the Forsaken try to kill her to steal the glory for themselves, so she kills them instead. From that point on, she realizes the Forsaken will just try to kill her. So, when she encounters Be'LOL in tDR, she balefires him. When she realizes Lanfear is trying to prematurely kill her prize (Rand), she kills her, too.

5. Moiraine has already been reincarnated by the Dark One, since she is too valuable to lose. That's right, Moiraine has been reincarnated as Cyndane. The letter to Mat and Thom is a fake, intended to lead them to their deaths in the Tower of Genji.

Thoughts?