I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - Edit 1
Before modification by Shannow at 28/10/2012 05:57:07 PM
Yeah, that's all wrong. For one thing, RJ said strength is distributed over a bell curve, not strength levels. You're plotting the wrong data points.
That said, obviously each level corresponds to a range on the strength scale (whatever it was in RJ's, we can take it to be 1-100 and it will still work the same). The 21 levels are distributed over this scale. We don't know if each level represents an equal interval in the strength scale, but assuming we do, we'd expect a peak around 10/11, which is where you find it. However, you also need to note that the sampling in that list is atrocious. We tend to see and hear more about stronger Aes Sedai and very little about women too weak to become AS. That definitely causes skewing. Plus, the list is very subjective, and tries to make quantitative differences between "strong" and "very strong" and such terms.
That said, obviously each level corresponds to a range on the strength scale (whatever it was in RJ's, we can take it to be 1-100 and it will still work the same). The 21 levels are distributed over this scale. We don't know if each level represents an equal interval in the strength scale, but assuming we do, we'd expect a peak around 10/11, which is where you find it. However, you also need to note that the sampling in that list is atrocious. We tend to see and hear more about stronger Aes Sedai and very little about women too weak to become AS. That definitely causes skewing. Plus, the list is very subjective, and tries to make quantitative differences between "strong" and "very strong" and such terms.
Oh, ok. I always assumed the levels were evenly distributed. Do you know if there exists a large collection of channeler strengths, enough to make a plot?
I guess making a comprehensive list would be like the mother of all those riddles where you get information like "The man in house number two drinks wine" and "The French officer is the neighbour of the man who has a dog".
RJ spoke of the same bell curve holding now. He said strength was distributed over a bell curve. That 67.5% of channelers in that curve would be strong enough to be Aes Sedai. That this is true only in the modern age, since in the AoL, anyone could become Aes Sedai. There's no doubt at all that its the same bell curve.
If RJ said it, why are we discussing it? Do you have a link to the quote?
But really, 67.5% of the channeling population strong enough to be Aes Sedai? Aren't they sending away a majority of the novices and accepted because they aren't strong enough? Or is it because the majority don't have "what it takes to be Aes Sedai"?
Firstly, channeling strength IS linked to genetics. It is blatantly incorrect to say that it is solely linked to the soul.
In fact, it is linked to both the soul and the body. If Lews Therin's soul was reborn into a body that does not have sufficient strength, he will be weaker in the One Power than in his previous incarnation.
So yes, a weaker channeling gene pool will serve to reduce average strength.
Secondly, great work in applying a Bell Curve to the estimated channeler strengths of known channelers. It indeed clearly shows that the curve now spikes way lower than it did in the Age of Legends.
Furthermore, RJ has confirmed that 62.5% of female channelers are strong enough to pass the Aes Sedai test (meaning they are as strong as Daigian or stronger). This means that only 12.5% of channelers lie between Daigian and the average strength channeler.
We know that Daigian is roughly one third as strong as Moiraine. And we know that Lanfear is FAR more than twice as strong as Moiraine.
All of this tells us that all modern Aes Sedai come from less than 12.5% of the total female channeling population. This HAS to be the case, because if 37.5% lie below Daigian, and if 12.5% lie between Daigian and the average strength, and if Moiraine lies BELOW the average strength, then all modern sisters who fall between Daigian and Moiraine come from LESS than 12.5% of the total channeling population.
There it is. Irrefutable, if you believe in the Bell Curve hypothesis.