After all, Rand will have the Asha'man (whatever's left of them), the Aes Sedai (ditto), likely the Seanchan Damane, the Wise Ones, and maybe even some Windfinders to support his troops in any battles that take place. Oh, and Matt's canons. Hundreds and hundreds of channelers? Good lord, that is an ENORMOUS advantage against any traditional army. Even 60 Black Ajah will do very little to turn the tide, but they're a start.

So yeah, there's a good reason to think you might be right.