But it's a bit silly to expect someone doing purely creative work to be able to give very accurate estimates. It's not really Martin's estimates which are wrong anyway - it was probably a fairly accurate guess at how much time he'd still need to write the number of chapters he thought he'd need to finish each story arc, but it turned out what he had done didn't work as he thought it would, and parts needed re thinking and rewrites. Where Martin seems to have a lot of problems is with planning this series. It's not developping as he originally expected, some of his original planning didn't work and working alternatives forced him to slow down and think. In a series like his, long and complex, it can become a major problem. Obviously Martin isn't just writing DWD, but weighing the repercussions on the outline of the rest of the series, making sure he's not creating himself more narrative/thematic etc. problems later on, and working out solutions before committing himself when he does. It's hard enough doing this at novel length, writers like Martin make it even harder by doing it over multiple volumes.



There's a huge difference in taking him at face value when he's in the middle of a novel in which he had met many problems before, and the present situation. Bantam is expecting to expand the GRRM readership substantially with the mini series and are putting a lot of money into it (big marketing campaign, redesigned books etc). The massive delays with DWD is a problem - it could discourage many new readers to begin the series, and the delays is the top discussion topic new fans looking on ASOIAF online resources will see. The Bantam people would be absolutely stupid to announce a release date for DWD at this juncture, in effect making the new book and the mini itself the new hot topic online and putting behind the delays, if there was any doubt the book will be finished in time. The fact they can release the book on the heels of the mini series is a terrific marketing opportunity for them, but only as long as they're sure it happens! If it doesn't, it will completely backfire and ruin their efforts - an ice shower for the old fans and the new fans of the mini series looking into the books. Definitely not the sort of comments on ASOIAF wants to see everywhere this summer.

If Martin's lost your trust forget him, trust instead Bantam's business sense. They probably waited as long as necessary to announce this. At this point, they know Martin will be done (if the stories are true, he's putting final touches to the conclusion chapters, there won't be any more structural problems - it's all dealt with, most of the book is not only delivered but even edited and ready to go apparently. In others words, Martin has committed himself.)