Well confirmed is an iffy word, RCP just throws in every vaguely reputable poll, but other than the occasional week long surge he's been the front runner for months. Many simply repeat the same conceptual errors and one of those is to assume that the X vs Y number means very much, because they said the same sort of thing about McCain last time which is part of how he drew forward, realistically though I think Romney would have had a much tighter race with Obama, maybe even won. What I go by is disapproval numbers and that only loosely, because people who disapprove usually won't switch that very quickly.

Right now though I don't really care what the numbers say, I just go by which candidate I feel is vaguely electable and that mostly represents my views, that I think would govern well. Romney is the only remaining governor in the race and proved, much as I dislike Romneycare conceptually, that he can govern at state that isn't dyed as red as a Matador's cape. Making him a reliable choice in my book.