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Ax murderers are people, too! Joel Send a noteboard - 04/03/2012 08:23:41 PM
NOT! :P I am unsure how much VP choices really matter for swinging states anymore, though it does not really help that recent candidates have chosen their VP for other reasons. The last president I think might actually have won a state because of his VP was Reagan in 1980. Even then, it is hard to argue TX really voted for him because of a CT carbetbagger who never managed more than a couple House elections. So we are back to JFK/LBJ (once again in TX, oddly.)

I don't think Darth Vader or the Gaffe Machine represent wonderful strategic choices anyway. It still matters, Rubio is well-liked and especially by the GOP there.

Well, Cheney offered Bush some much needed gravitas, and Biden demonstrated Obama could excuse past opponents past transgressions, but I agree with your assessment overall. Obama badly needed a running mate from somewhere his popularity is shaky; it would have given him a popular landslide and lasting mandate in 2008 as well as solidified FL, OH, VA or NC for him now (though the revelations already surfacing about Edwards made him an unsuitable choice.) Wikipedia claims Sam Nunn was on the short list, which might have split the South in half and produced a true realignment election. As it is, Biden brings no more to the table now than then; he just offers Romney someone like Quayle to illustrate Obamas bad judgement.

Of course, FL should actually be close, and is certainly critical now that it has the third most EVs, so putting Rubio on the ticket would be a smart move (and help Romneys credibility with the base.) It might even help seal the deal in AZ and put NM in play (it could be argued Rubio has little in common with Southwestern voters save religion and immigrant ancestors, but both are huge.) In that case Obama would be in truly dire straits, because Romney has to be the favorite in NH, and that would mean Obama could afford no more losses except IA—even WITH OH (sorry.) Looking at the map, it is hard to see why so many Dems are so cheery.

This stuff always unguessable until maybe a week out, and then of course afterwards it was 'inevitable', I can't see Rubio hurting Romney in the Pop vote or EV. Guessing VP candidates this early out is also an exercise in futility though, I happen to be a big Rubio fan is all.

It is too soon to tell a lot of things, but Rubio offers the GOP in general many upsides with few liabilities, unless something really damaging is discovered.
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Now That Romney Is Officially the Republican Presidential Nominee: Pick the President! Joel - 29/02/2012 08:29:02 PM 1848 Views
I agree Romney will be the candidate. Tom - 29/02/2012 08:54:52 PM 902 Views
I would say the math favors Romney over Obama, but it will probably be close either way. Joel - 01/03/2012 03:37:52 PM 998 Views
I have never understood the point of the Electoral College. Tim - 29/02/2012 11:39:11 PM 975 Views
You don't think like a politician then Isaac - 01/03/2012 12:38:36 AM 1035 Views
I certainly hadn't considered much of that. I'm glad you posted it. *NM* Ghavrel - 01/03/2012 07:15:03 AM 453 Views
I also have not seen most of that mentioned in the popular vs. electoral debate. Joel - 01/03/2012 02:34:31 PM 929 Views
what about one vote one value? wadsy - 02/03/2012 11:51:32 PM 1096 Views
That has not really changed. Joel - 03/03/2012 03:30:34 AM 1209 Views
a bit simplistic and unrealistic wadsy - 02/03/2012 11:44:02 PM 967 Views
When illustrating a point realism is not required and simplicity is a plus Isaac - 03/03/2012 03:04:26 AM 1013 Views
I have a couple quibbles. Joel - 03/03/2012 05:23:46 AM 1021 Views
Oh, certainly, I'm over-generalizing but I was already getting long-winded Isaac - 03/03/2012 06:52:04 AM 950 Views
I hate when people do that. Joel - 05/03/2012 09:49:36 AM 984 Views
What a bunch of waffle! wadsy - 03/03/2012 10:47:19 AM 1109 Views
First you complain of simplicity then of my lack of brevity? Isaac - 03/03/2012 11:18:11 AM 872 Views
A simplistic argument doesn't mean it's brief *NM* wadsy - 03/03/2012 09:55:51 PM 466 Views
Also I don't like this refrain that implies only the POTUS vote matters Isaac - 03/03/2012 03:29:58 AM 1124 Views
IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college. Joel - 03/03/2012 05:57:41 AM 929 Views
Re: IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college. Isaac - 03/03/2012 07:02:30 AM 973 Views
*is learning* Joel - 04/03/2012 09:49:42 PM 930 Views
Re: *is learning* Isaac - 04/03/2012 09:56:16 PM 975 Views
To the extent I can (yet again) claim to speak for Europeans... Legolas - 04/03/2012 10:33:01 PM 926 Views
I've fairly limited exposure and that from some years back Isaac - 04/03/2012 11:35:12 PM 1039 Views
Re: *is learning* Joel - 05/03/2012 12:08:08 AM 1011 Views
You could imitate the French. Legolas - 07/03/2012 10:40:16 PM 927 Views
That seems... unlikely.... Joel - 08/03/2012 03:03:54 PM 937 Views
It does, doesn't it? Legolas - 08/03/2012 06:11:08 PM 1106 Views
After I thought about it more, I realized France and the US are not so different in that respect. Joel - 08/03/2012 08:51:03 PM 901 Views
More similar than the other major Western democracies at least, agreed. Legolas - 08/03/2012 09:32:55 PM 899 Views
I did not realize lack of a parliamentary majority dictated his cabinet. Joel - 09/03/2012 12:27:31 AM 975 Views
I don't know much about Norwegian politics, but you seem to be wrong. Legolas - 03/03/2012 06:18:08 PM 966 Views
Do you happen to have that link, please? Joel - 03/03/2012 06:46:31 PM 857 Views
Sure. Legolas - 03/03/2012 06:58:07 PM 1081 Views
Guess we did not read far enough. Joel - 03/03/2012 10:38:07 PM 984 Views
Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics... Legolas - 03/03/2012 11:49:44 PM 1180 Views
Hey, man, I am an AMERICAN: I do not HAVE to know ANYTHING! Joel - 04/03/2012 11:46:57 PM 1185 Views
Re: Hey, man, I am an AMERICAN: I do not HAVE to know ANYTHING! Legolas - 05/03/2012 11:14:42 PM 1544 Views
Re: Hey, man, I am an AMERICAN: I do not HAVE to know ANYTHING! Joel - 08/03/2012 02:56:02 PM 1020 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics... DomA - 05/03/2012 06:56:24 AM 972 Views
The thing is, regions often have national relevance far greater than their populations would suggest Joel - 05/03/2012 10:21:26 AM 937 Views
Fascinating. Legolas - 05/03/2012 10:52:32 PM 971 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics... Macharius - 08/03/2012 07:11:12 PM 928 Views
Many valid reasons, including those Isaac cited. Joel - 02/03/2012 02:26:37 AM 1090 Views
Most states are ignored anyway wadsy - 02/03/2012 11:56:12 PM 1154 Views
Only because and to the extent they have already committed themselves. Joel - 03/03/2012 03:41:39 AM 988 Views
Why would we do something logical? Dude, you're utterly ridiculous. *NM* callandor1000 - 05/03/2012 04:53:38 PM 494 Views
I'm kind of sad- does this mean Santorum won't be providing wonderful sound bites anymore? beetnemesis - 01/03/2012 02:22:31 PM 896 Views
Nothing has shut him up yet, why should this? *NM* Dannymac - 01/03/2012 05:27:30 PM 480 Views
Maybe he'll pull a Palin and go touring around the country *NM* beetnemesis - 01/03/2012 07:06:02 PM 444 Views
No, it probably means we will get more and worse than ever. Joel - 01/03/2012 11:25:25 PM 1068 Views
Romney or Obama, either way, America loses. *NM* Hieshyn - 02/03/2012 01:10:26 AM 659 Views
Hard to dispute that either; six of one, half a dozen of the other. Joel - 02/03/2012 01:38:07 AM 879 Views
Couldn't agree more *NM* Hieshyn - 02/03/2012 06:52:51 PM 554 Views
It reminds me of when Denver backed into the NFL playoffs. Joel - 02/03/2012 09:36:13 PM 869 Views
I'd agree hope and change was extremely unrealistic wadsy - 02/03/2012 11:58:57 PM 875 Views
Well, you know my story there; I voted for Obama and got Hillary (at best.) Joel - 03/03/2012 01:43:20 AM 904 Views
Update: Despite rules requiring they be split, the MI GOP is giving Romney BOTH statewide delegates. Joel - 02/03/2012 11:10:56 PM 995 Views
Romney is damaged wadsy - 02/03/2012 11:27:33 PM 868 Views
Obama is rather damaged also; it will probably come down to FL and OH, yet again. Joel - 03/03/2012 02:23:53 AM 1026 Views
I'm hoping for Rubio as VP... then FL probably won't matter Isaac - 03/03/2012 04:28:08 AM 874 Views
You should put that on your license plates. Joel - 03/03/2012 06:41:34 AM 1045 Views
Re: You should put that on your license plates. Isaac - 03/03/2012 06:51:00 AM 971 Views
Ax murderers are people, too! Joel - 04/03/2012 08:23:41 PM 914 Views
And what are you basing all of this on? wadsy - 03/03/2012 09:54:06 PM 977 Views
The closeness of several states when Obama was far more popular, and UTs heavily Mormon neighbors. Joel - 03/03/2012 11:44:06 PM 977 Views
Wrong wadsy - 04/03/2012 08:08:56 AM 1064 Views
Higher turnout magnifies the Mormon effect. Joel - 04/03/2012 08:08:09 PM 1130 Views
Your reasoning is flawed and if you can't see it there is no hope for you wadsy - 05/03/2012 11:39:04 PM 1056 Views
Yeah, I think we had that conversation already, several times, in fact. Joel - 07/03/2012 05:36:45 AM 857 Views
Do you have any knowledge of statistics at all? wadsy - 07/03/2012 09:04:15 PM 1035 Views
I hate this message board wadsy - 07/03/2012 09:06:30 PM 826 Views
It would probably help if you deleted the stuff from two, three posts back? Legolas - 07/03/2012 09:25:40 PM 935 Views
Some, though it is far from exhaustive. Joel - 08/03/2012 02:29:06 PM 1074 Views
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