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I think Silver's model tries to account for historical turnouts Larry Send a noteboard - 17/10/2012 10:32:24 PM
I also think that people looking at the odds are close on the probability, but the election itself could go either way, and I do believe that some of the models are making too many assumptions about Democrats being able to match the 2008 turnout.


I think it's safe to say it'll be like 2004, except possibly in reverse for the outcome, depending on Ohio and maybe Virginia. Very little else is anything more than "white noise."
Illusions fall like the husk of a fruit, one after another, and the fruit is experience. - Narrator, Sylvie

Je suis méchant.
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Is the election over? NEW GALLUP - ROMNEY +6% - 51% to 45% - Anonymous2000 - 17/10/2012 06:50:26 PM 629 Views
why do you hate america so much? *NM* moondog - 17/10/2012 06:57:23 PM 207 Views
Funny, I have the same question for you. *NM* Anonymous2000 - 17/10/2012 06:59:11 PM 210 Views
That is an absurd statement no matter what your politics are. Tom - 17/10/2012 09:57:59 PM 417 Views
it's been an absurd statement since around 2002 or so moondog - 17/10/2012 10:08:34 PM 434 Views
This was not the proper place for the statement, then. Tom - 17/10/2012 10:23:46 PM 436 Views
It was no less absurd all those years that the Conservatives asked that of Liberals imlad - 17/10/2012 11:17:45 PM 446 Views
I'm not Rush Limbaugh. I responded to moondog's specific statement. *NM* Tom - 17/10/2012 11:27:26 PM 189 Views
I think that we can all agree on.... Jeordam - 17/10/2012 07:16:01 PM 459 Views
Re: I think that we can all agree on.... Fox and Ravens - 17/10/2012 07:23:54 PM 427 Views
Agreed - even for someone that enjoys politics, it gets old after a while. *NM* Anonymous2000 - 17/10/2012 09:39:33 PM 203 Views
Yeah the elections over all right, a slam dunk to Obama, check with the bookies Sports_Gambler - 17/10/2012 07:35:14 PM 662 Views
You persist in this fiction Tom - 17/10/2012 10:06:07 PM 438 Views
obama still has the easier path to victory moondog - 17/10/2012 10:22:58 PM 369 Views
I wouldn't dispute that for an instant. Tom - 17/10/2012 10:25:46 PM 437 Views
I think Silver's model tries to account for historical turnouts Larry - 17/10/2012 10:32:24 PM 429 Views
I think that Virginia is still really a "red" state. Tom - 17/10/2012 11:07:35 PM 431 Views
I think it's still in play Larry - 18/10/2012 12:04:55 AM 407 Views
Debate results won't be clear for a few days, and the average of polls is still a statistical tie. Burr - 17/10/2012 07:43:57 PM 463 Views
It ain't over till the fat lady sings, and all that. Legolas - 17/10/2012 10:07:11 PM 434 Views
Hawaii. Kaldric - 17/10/2012 10:36:09 PM 571 Views
Yes, but they are also utterly predictable. Legolas - 17/10/2012 10:43:45 PM 428 Views
As evidenced recently by Germany - Sweden *NM* Floffe - 21/10/2012 05:17:38 PM 202 Views
It is interesting how partisan faith in polls is directly proportional to their candidates numbers. Joel - 17/10/2012 11:56:49 PM 441 Views
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