That seems like a high number/percentage...but given people's propensity to procrastinate (wow) I am hoping enough will be received in the mail and in person today and tomorrow to make the potential provisionals due to this small enough not to matter.

It's true the absentee ballot applications got sent to almost everyone, but people still had to go through the effort of requesting the absentee ballot (and the application informed them that if they did that and then chose to vote at the polls they would have to vote a provisional ballot). That warning was also repeated in at least 2 places in the packet containing the ballot for those who actually requested them. All this to say that I can't believe anywhere close to 400,000 people were frivolous enough to follow through on requesting the ballot and then change their mind and decide to vote in person anyway...(Although I will say that I was put off when I received my absentee ballot...the mailing envelope to send it back very clearly communicated the contents, and that made me nervous enough not to want to send it through the mail. Fortunately dropping the ballot off in person at my local county BoE was convenient for me. But if it hadn't been, I'd have seriously considered voting in person anyway. I'm probably more cynical than most, though.)