Fivethirtyeight.com is saying right now Trump is ahead - and claims if the election was held today, he'd win, though narrowly.

Seems to me that as usual it will come down to Ohio and Florida. If Trump manages wins Ohio, that means he will be also close in Pennsylvania and perhaps even Michigan. Either of those, or Virginia, plus Florida, and he's basically there unless Clinton takes all other states where she has a shot. If he loses Ohio on the other hand, I don't see it happening - he's not the one who will break the historical streak of Republicans only winning elections when they get Ohio.

I agree there is also a scenario where Clinton wins overwhelmingly, i.e. if Johnson can make enough of a difference to hand her states like Arizona or even Utah that weren't in play in the previous elections. But at this point I think that's very, very optimistic.