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What kind of deal do you figure is possible on North Korea? Legolas Send a noteboard - 28/10/2016 10:48:32 PM

View original postOn the status of forces agreement for Iraq, no country ever agrees to our provisions at first. Then we tell them, "Either your brains or your signature will be on this contract" (more or less) and they say, "Okay." This was the ONLY time we didn't do that. While maybe in some circumstances I could see taking a principled, "we're not going to bully them" approach might make sense, the Iraqi government only exists at our sufferance and due to our support. The immediate growth of ISIS following our departure only makes that fact painfully evident. The ultimate failure is, of course, Obama's (as in so many other things), but Hillary could have resigned if she was being countermanded left and right. (Note use of the indicative rather than the subjunctive there - I'm expressing an uncertainty about whether she was being countermanded rather than stating that I believe it to be counterfactual).

It's hard to say now without detailed knowledge if an agreement was achievable - but given the constraints both from the American domestic politics side and from the Iraqi domestic politics side (influenced by Iran etc), it's fair to say that deal would've been exceptionally difficult compared to most similar agreements. I suppose perhaps the kind of deal where a truly exceptional secretary of state could prove his or her mettle.
View original postOn Ukraine, we set up a situation where Yanukovich had to choose between the aspirational dreams of his people as expressed in the Ukraine-EU Treaty, and the present economic interests of his country and in particular the part of the country that voted for him 0% of Ukraine's exports went to Russia prior to the Maidan, and Europe doesn't want most of it and never will) in the form of the Ukraine-Eurasian Customs Association treaty. There was no reason he couldn't sign both if the EU and US didn't pull the rug out from Yanukovich at the last minute (which we did). That triggered the Maidan, which we then funded (or do you think that people are going to stand out in subzero January weather for weeks and weeks without at least getting some money to keep paying for their power and apartments and shit like that?) and organized (Victoria Nuland's phone intercepts were confirmed to be legitimate).

You made that argument before and I'm not disputing it as such - but I do think tension with Putin would've grown back one way or another, and not so much because of America. If it hadn't been in Ukraine, then in Georgia again, or Estonia, or wherever.
View original postAs for North Korea, we all know that the key is actually negotiating a resolution to the problem with China, definitively and for all time. If there is ever political will in the US for that, we could shut down Chinese support for North Korea overnight.

Certainly I agree that China would be essential to any agreement - but at this point it doesn't look like China has as much pull as we once thought it had, either. Or just not the political will, considering the enormous humanitarian crisis they'd have on their hands if they allowed the regime to be shut down.

But regardless of that, how do you see the terms of such a deal working out? Political will in the US to do what exactly? And to be clear, I don't say that to argue, I genuinely want to know.

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What kind of deal do you figure is possible on North Korea? - 28/10/2016 10:48:32 PM 642 Views
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