The narrative is how great Brady is. And he is great. But he and the Patriots are not great enough to get to the SB every year. 9 seasons where Brady didn't get to the SB and 8 seasons where he did. Looks like it's slightly under a 50% chance he gets to the SB.
Seasons Didn't Get to The Superbowl
2015
2013
2012
2010
2009
2008
2006
2005
2002
Seasons Lost the Superbowl
2017
2011
2007
Seasons Won the Superbowl
2016
2014
2004
2003
2001