Active Users:254 Time:30/04/2024 09:20:01 AM
It massively changes asset prices already built into contracts (what you would call expectations.) Roland00 Send a noteboard - 16/11/2018 10:24:30 PM

View original post
It just seems like people are making all of this way too complicated.

It massively changes asset prices already built into contracts (what you would call expectations.) These people will take the losses on the balance sheet but it will also affect the total supply and the total demand of the UK for sudden asset shocks like this will change the behavior of a whole lot of people in the UK and also outside the UK due to the need to absorb losses of those assets.

Let's put it this way, the IMF estimates a 5 to 8% GDP drop if the UK does brexit without a trade deal that would more or less let those assests be priced the same prior to Brexit. For comparison in the US real GDP contracted by 4.2% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2009 according to the Department of Labor with the Great Recession.

Now a brexit with a trade agreement is still expected to cost the UK economy 2.5 to 4% by the same IMF report but that is a much smaller thing.

Reply to message
Can someone please sum up what the heck is going on in England/GB? - 16/11/2018 03:35:19 PM 436 Views
May is the Lord of Chaos. - 16/11/2018 08:29:42 PM 354 Views
What happens on that date if no deal? *NM* - 16/11/2018 09:51:22 PM 141 Views
Neither of those names is right - and that's a large part of the problem. - 16/11/2018 08:49:29 PM 341 Views
What would the problems be if the GB/UK just left the EU? - 16/11/2018 09:50:34 PM 310 Views
It massively changes asset prices already built into contracts (what you would call expectations.) - 16/11/2018 10:24:30 PM 320 Views
Summing it up is not enough - 16/11/2018 09:04:14 PM 330 Views
Um. Neither? *NM* - 16/11/2018 09:09:15 PM 127 Views

Reply to Message