Active Users:198 Time:28/03/2024 08:10:54 AM
Spain is showing it's simpler than that... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 20/03/2020 04:16:26 PM

It looks like slow ramp up of testing, combined with a few weeks of rampant spread without social distancing, was enough to get the spread to an exponential phase.

What Italy, Spain, and now many states in the US are doing will have effects. But first we'll see an uptick in cases and fatalities, as testing increases, and the disease's extraordinarily long incubation time runs through it's course in those already infected.

To the best of my understanding, we can expect April and early May to be pretty bad, before things settle down.

But it we relax social distancing and isolation once things do settle, we risk a resurgence.

On the other hand, it's not like social distancing is without a cost.

I had a mild cough last week so I stayed at home for the last 3 days of the week out of an abundance of caution. By Monday, we'd all been asked to work from home indefinitely. It's starting to get to me, that's for sure. And this is just the second week.

Reply to message
Italy now has the largest raw numbers of coronavirus deaths. - 19/03/2020 06:50:34 PM 419 Views
Braced for worst? or Hoping for the worst? - 20/03/2020 03:29:25 AM 247 Views
You're a fucking bastard. - 20/03/2020 04:00:10 AM 241 Views
I've seen two theories for why Italy has been hit so hard - 20/03/2020 03:34:24 PM 267 Views
Plus simple individual errors... - 20/03/2020 04:03:21 PM 253 Views
Spain is showing it's simpler than that... - 20/03/2020 04:16:26 PM 224 Views
I heard Italy has the oldest population in Europe and many smokers *NM* - 20/03/2020 05:39:04 PM 109 Views
Who has the largest cooked numbers? - 20/03/2020 08:04:24 PM 247 Views
Rofl. Gallows humor is good. *NM* - 20/03/2020 08:13:14 PM 103 Views
Keep it up. It made me smile. *NM* - 20/03/2020 08:41:32 PM 117 Views
Oh No, sound effect. - 20/03/2020 11:17:26 PM 218 Views
Having grown up and lived in NYC for 18 years, I can tell you that - 21/03/2020 03:01:26 PM 220 Views
I hope you are wrong as well, but I agree with your analysis. *NM* - 21/03/2020 04:13:01 PM 112 Views

Reply to Message