Hard to tell, if a scummer who had answered could let us know we'd have data
Isaac Send a noteboard - 16/02/2011 06:51:10 AM
Isaac Send a noteboard - 16/02/2011 06:51:10 AM
I don't think I've seen a reason for that yet
Fox had less than five minutes from Scott's reply to his own, the various steps in a scummer deciding to answer that question should require more time. I consider him and Scott - especially with Scott being established as even more new than I thought - the least likely to be scum, my mother 4 exception - Gher, ?, ranagrande, and myself - all have bigger 'Buts' attached then scott or Fox.
This, at least, would be pretty binary. So, I'm a Darkfriend. What questions do I ask myself?
1)Have any other DFs done this? If yes, then post, if no, then continue.
So for Fox this would be highly improbable, unless Gher was scum, so improbable for Fox
2)Have enough people done this that it seems likely that all will do it, and thus I will not want to stick out? If yes, then post, if no, then go on ahead.
Since Gher wouldn't count as the asker, Fox had only Scott, and only five minutes top for Scott. ? had more, again, part of why he wasn't on my original list, but not a lot more.
3) So, no other DFs, and in fact almost no people have responded to this yet. Do I think it's unlikely there's a Lie Detector? If yes, then post, if no, then wait and see
Could Gher be asking this as a lie detector knowing we'd thinki it unlikely he would do so?
At this point, the DF would wait to see if other people started posting.
Bingo, no matter how you cut it, once people had started posting in numbers the scum would have the time and justification to have come to the final conclusion and posted the reply.
And I'm really over-complicating this; I think for most people this would be a pretty snap decision, especially once a couple (such as Gher and Scott) already did it.
Gher asked the question, doesn't really count. Scott barely counts, regarding Fox, very little turnover time.
Looking at the times is a good idea, and one maybe we could use for in the future. In this case, though, I think more important is the ORDER people posted in. If, like you say, the DFs had a wait-and-see attitude until one of them took the plunge, then the first two are probably safe. I'd say F&R, ?, Hobo or myself would be in the best positions for being that "first Darkfriend"
F&R was one of the first two. Sher asked the question.
Er, Mafia.
But of course this is all assuming that they were being timid. It's entirely possible that Gher set this up to begin with, taking a minor gamble, or that Scott quickly agreed with Gher so that he'd look more pro-town.
Improbable but possible, as I said in the original analysis

Anyway. Let's just lynch Bergioyn.
Why him? I'm okay with any of the 6 - you, him, FT, Yuna, Stephen and Hobo but I didn't see anything that elevates him relative to you for instance.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Mafia 21: Sunrise and Spelling
- 28/01/2011 06:19:23 AM
4523 Views
Got my role and stuff
- 28/01/2011 04:03:05 PM
1662 Views
All right then, first line of inquiry: Are you a person?
- 29/01/2011 12:24:04 AM
1702 Views
I bet it's going to turn out that there is no Mafia
- 30/01/2011 01:37:06 AM
1698 Views
What makes you think that? *NM*
- 30/01/2011 01:54:27 AM
1000 Views
Because DK is obviously an artistic soul, who wants to hold a mirror up to reality
- 30/01/2011 05:42:35 AM
1694 Views
Okay, so we have pretty much established that we are all human and have something of a character.
- 30/01/2011 05:04:07 PM
1722 Views
Damn, I'm missing a Katie game. Stupid broken laptop. *NM*
- 30/01/2011 10:34:20 PM
1139 Views
I doubt names could be dangerous
- 31/01/2011 05:09:05 AM
1759 Views
Man... you'd think someone would have come up with a good Day One strategy by now *NM*
- 31/01/2011 05:32:09 AM
970 Views
Let's lynch someone!
- 31/01/2011 12:30:47 PM
1741 Views
Now, now...
- 31/01/2011 05:39:47 PM
1737 Views
KILL THE LAWYER
- 31/01/2011 05:59:10 PM
1672 Views
I'm not advocating giving out job titles, but I'll release mine too.
- 31/01/2011 07:04:05 PM
1722 Views
This needs to stop, IMO.
- 01/02/2011 12:46:59 AM
1707 Views
I agree with this
- 01/02/2011 04:57:59 PM
1622 Views
But didn't we see from the intro that there are no clever mafia? *NM*
- 01/02/2011 11:53:29 PM
901 Views
A quick idea:
- 01/02/2011 09:46:45 PM
1733 Views
I am aligned with the town *NM*
- 03/02/2011 12:46:10 AM
944 Views
However
- 03/02/2011 12:49:54 AM
1685 Views
Re: However
- 03/02/2011 01:00:46 AM
1737 Views
On that score
- 03/02/2011 11:12:08 AM
1595 Views
I see...so you think it was uselss?
- 03/02/2011 04:38:28 PM
1747 Views
Son of a
- 02/02/2011 12:51:51 AM
1615 Views
oh no!
- 02/02/2011 04:57:48 AM
1702 Views
I have good news, actually!
- 02/02/2011 02:23:06 PM
1622 Views
Re: I have good news, actually!
- 02/02/2011 03:42:16 PM
1594 Views
We had the first snow day today in 11 years.
*NM*
- 02/02/2011 04:22:00 PM
903 Views
*NM*
- 02/02/2011 04:22:00 PM
903 Views
In 11 years? o.O
- 02/02/2011 04:46:07 PM
1548 Views
Ah, it snows here all the time.
- 02/02/2011 05:38:17 PM
1719 Views
It's always a question of infrastructure.
- 02/02/2011 05:46:32 PM
1673 Views
I had my first snow day the day before my schools thanksgiving break this year.
- 02/02/2011 07:13:33 PM
1664 Views
You americans are all too soft!
- 02/02/2011 09:47:21 PM
1781 Views
- 02/02/2011 09:47:21 PM
1781 Views
Hey I'm under three feet now!
- 02/02/2011 11:00:42 PM
1589 Views
Vote: Stephen
- 02/02/2011 05:31:47 PM
1663 Views
Why not be suspicious of isaac then?
- 02/02/2011 05:42:12 PM
1647 Views
and what complete twat uses his/her full name on the internet? its asking for trouble
- 02/02/2011 07:04:07 PM
1627 Views
Meh, I'm always suspicious of Isaac
- 03/02/2011 07:52:48 PM
1705 Views
Guys! Murder!
- 03/02/2011 07:54:11 PM
1703 Views
Well, it still is your day, seeing as you are all alive and everything *NM*
- 03/02/2011 08:55:23 PM
903 Views
Re: Well, it still is your day, seeing as you are all alive and everything
- 03/02/2011 11:48:03 PM
1735 Views
I was badly paraphrasing a quote from WoT
- 04/02/2011 12:14:36 AM
1744 Views
Quote found:
- 04/02/2011 12:20:48 AM
1711 Views
I find myself concerned about our apparent enemy
- 05/02/2011 01:59:12 AM
1971 Views
Re: I find myself concerned about our apparent enemy
- 05/02/2011 03:13:18 AM
1677 Views
I really don't wee where this accusation is coming from.
- 05/02/2011 06:50:38 PM
1729 Views
I think you protest too much
- 05/02/2011 08:34:40 PM
1859 Views
Re: I think you protest too much
- 05/02/2011 10:11:50 PM
1699 Views
Re: I think you protest too much
- 05/02/2011 10:31:40 PM
1693 Views
Okay. A few things:
- 05/02/2011 07:49:46 PM
1738 Views
Re: Okay. A few things:
- 05/02/2011 08:05:49 PM
1563 Views
If there was a cult, then it could change if someone was recruited
- 05/02/2011 08:58:23 PM
1546 Views
What Beet said. Also look at Judas and Saulus on Mafiawiki. I'll link it.
- 05/02/2011 09:08:37 PM
1700 Views
Potentially
- 05/02/2011 09:25:26 PM
1562 Views
I feel like this akin to Hypocopping. It's not game-breaking.
- 05/02/2011 10:34:21 PM
1757 Views
Big difference
- 05/02/2011 10:51:45 PM
1693 Views
Maybe a variation...
- 06/02/2011 12:25:37 AM
1678 Views
I can't see how that would work
- 06/02/2011 01:32:51 AM
1631 Views
I'm tending to agree with you after thinking about it, but yes. Lets wait until post-game to discuss *NM*
- 06/02/2011 01:59:32 AM
1016 Views
This day has been dragginf rather long.
- 05/02/2011 10:04:42 PM
1701 Views
duh! vote for someone
- 05/02/2011 10:09:16 PM
1669 Views
I still think we should lynch Stephen
- 05/02/2011 10:57:23 PM
1721 Views
Didn't realise the point of the game was to sate your ego, and thirst for fame.
- 06/02/2011 12:11:25 AM
1680 Views
I see some options right now.
- 07/02/2011 06:34:11 PM
1761 Views
We have a lot of people talking in the intro.
- 07/02/2011 09:15:14 PM
1672 Views
I'm probably the "weathered farmer" *NM*
- 07/02/2011 09:51:13 PM
1027 Views
"All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 07/02/2011 10:58:00 PM
1668 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 07/02/2011 11:07:59 PM
1745 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 07/02/2011 11:48:37 PM
1722 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 08/02/2011 12:25:31 AM
1663 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 08/02/2011 01:10:23 AM
1682 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 08/02/2011 01:21:53 AM
1701 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 08/02/2011 10:59:15 PM
1509 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 09/02/2011 12:07:25 AM
1496 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 09/02/2011 12:24:25 AM
1523 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 09/02/2011 02:37:45 AM
1616 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 09/02/2011 10:06:46 PM
1555 Views
Probably? Did your RM have you saying something, or were you just basing it off of the farmer fact? *NM*
- 08/02/2011 01:20:46 AM
887 Views
As mentioned above, I was jsut basing it off of the farmer fact.
- 08/02/2011 01:22:46 AM
1764 Views
I'd want to double check, but...
- 07/02/2011 10:04:03 PM
1570 Views
I also speak in the intro. Probably should have said that in my last post. *NM*
- 08/02/2011 01:19:17 AM
1003 Views
By the end of the week, I plan on voting for someone.
- 09/02/2011 06:24:48 PM
1575 Views
I think we should vote for someone who hasn't been participating much.
- 10/02/2011 06:17:55 AM
1642 Views
Isn't that always the plan when we run out of ideas on who to lynch? *NM*
- 10/02/2011 06:44:02 AM
929 Views
Well, sometimes it's no-lynch, but I'm not going to suggest that, obviously
.
- 10/02/2011 07:36:19 AM
1655 Views
.
- 10/02/2011 07:36:19 AM
1655 Views
Good with me.
- 10/02/2011 10:49:25 PM
1686 Views
Re: Good with me.
- 10/02/2011 10:58:52 PM
1626 Views
Are we really down to random lynch?
- 10/02/2011 08:47:16 AM
1703 Views
Why we should vote for you.
- 11/02/2011 04:26:05 PM
1789 Views
I feel like it might come down to voting for you
- 12/02/2011 12:47:13 AM
1665 Views
- 12/02/2011 12:47:13 AM
1665 Views
Re: I feel like it might come down to voting for you
- 12/02/2011 07:07:29 PM
1597 Views
- 12/02/2011 07:07:29 PM
1597 Views
Re: I feel like it might come down to voting for you
- 12/02/2011 07:59:55 PM
1752 Views
- 12/02/2011 07:59:55 PM
1752 Views
Hm, let's take a look at the numbers...
- 13/02/2011 05:17:19 PM
1743 Views
Re: Hm, let's take a look at the numbers...
- 13/02/2011 05:25:11 PM
1679 Views
Now that I have two votes...
- 13/02/2011 05:57:39 PM
1635 Views
He has a point *NM*
- 13/02/2011 06:31:07 PM
910 Views
Haha do I talk about reading the future in entrails that often? As for the rest...
- 12/02/2011 04:34:50 AM
1641 Views
I'll be the first to admit that a Lie Detector Role is unlikely to appear in this game.
- 14/02/2011 08:13:15 PM
1705 Views
DEADLINE
- 13/02/2011 06:45:07 PM
1669 Views
I know already that I'm going to be RBIRL next weekend (friday-sunday). *NM*
- 13/02/2011 08:20:27 PM
903 Views
I'd like Isaac to clarify one of his posts from earlier.
- 13/02/2011 10:09:02 PM
1721 Views
It's tricky to clarify paranoid ramblings
- 14/02/2011 12:30:51 AM
1760 Views
Hmm, I don't know.
- 14/02/2011 01:05:05 AM
1619 Views
Did you just accuse me?
- 14/02/2011 01:09:43 AM
1616 Views
- 14/02/2011 01:09:43 AM
1616 Views
Re: Did you just accuse me?
- 14/02/2011 01:34:47 AM
1733 Views
- 14/02/2011 01:34:47 AM
1733 Views
Re: Did you just accuse me?
- 14/02/2011 01:59:50 AM
1559 Views
- 14/02/2011 01:59:50 AM
1559 Views
I can't say I have any questions for you.
- 14/02/2011 02:04:41 AM
1758 Views
It is rather difficult for me to rebut an accusation of that sort
- 14/02/2011 02:10:49 AM
1623 Views
Could someone clarify what this 'slip up' was by the way?
- 14/02/2011 01:17:59 AM
1715 Views
My biggest confusion,
- 14/02/2011 04:43:47 AM
1533 Views
Okay
- 14/02/2011 05:14:55 AM
1657 Views
Speaking Parts (Table)
- 15/02/2011 02:17:25 AM
1635 Views
Further consideration of my vote. Unvote, Vote: Bergioyn
- 15/02/2011 03:10:42 AM
1737 Views
Bergioyn has been ticking the back of my mind for a good chunk of the game.
- 15/02/2011 04:13:58 AM
1651 Views
Yeah, I think if elections were today, Bergioyn would get my vote. *NM*
- 15/02/2011 05:46:34 AM
928 Views
If your reason for voting me is that I have third least posts, shouldn't you be voting for whoever
- 15/02/2011 03:28:18 PM
1662 Views
Well, odds are no one is lying about speaking roles (Table)
- 15/02/2011 04:25:15 PM
1624 Views
Agreed.
- 15/02/2011 04:30:58 PM
1614 Views
Usually - also I guess I have a plan
- 15/02/2011 04:52:40 PM
1693 Views
I honestly don't know how useful your first list is
- 15/02/2011 06:06:39 PM
1729 Views
I agree with beet here. I don't see your list as being all that good. *NM*
- 15/02/2011 09:43:00 PM
944 Views
There's room for legit objection to the list, I made some, but I note the 3 who object aren't on it
- 16/02/2011 04:15:16 AM
1720 Views
So, why don't you suspect Fox and Ravens, again?
- 16/02/2011 05:27:36 AM
1694 Views
I'd thought that was fairly clear
- 16/02/2011 06:05:28 AM
1659 Views
Ehhh I don't think this requires as much deliberation as you think.
- 16/02/2011 06:29:06 AM
1629 Views
Hard to tell, if a scummer who had answered could let us know we'd have data
- 16/02/2011 06:51:10 AM
1704 Views
- 16/02/2011 06:51:10 AM
1704 Views
No, that's ridiculous.
- 15/02/2011 08:14:26 PM
1686 Views
Your rebuttal seems rather off the mark
- 16/02/2011 04:09:49 AM
1700 Views
Hmm? My objection had nothing to do with the pool of candidates.
- 16/02/2011 08:03:15 AM
1728 Views
Re: Well, odds are no one is lying about speaking roles.
- 15/02/2011 09:40:45 PM
1640 Views
Re: Well, odds are no one is lying about speaking roles.
- 15/02/2011 10:30:44 PM
1608 Views
I think "unusually erudite hobo" is right in DK's sense of humor *NM*
- 16/02/2011 12:37:32 AM
984 Views
Yeah, I thought the same thing. But that would be a very DK thing to do.
- 16/02/2011 04:18:09 PM
1723 Views
So does anyone want to hazard a guess as to what roles we do have?
- 15/02/2011 09:24:59 PM
1655 Views
PS those roles were taken from the mafiascum wiki's list of basic roles *NM*
- 15/02/2011 09:26:04 PM
998 Views
Sure.
- 15/02/2011 09:37:38 PM
1755 Views
Re: Sure.
- 15/02/2011 10:25:16 PM
1709 Views
Too many mafia are usually a hindrance, actually.
- 15/02/2011 10:56:59 PM
1675 Views
Plus, remember that their win condition is "Achieve a majority in the town"
- 16/02/2011 12:40:50 AM
1640 Views
Re: Sure.
- 15/02/2011 11:04:55 PM
1694 Views
I wouldn't
- 16/02/2011 12:09:38 AM
1656 Views
Oh, Darth_Katie's was the game we started off lylo?
- 16/02/2011 01:13:04 AM
1690 Views
I think that was one of Kronin's games you're thinking of.
- 16/02/2011 01:56:21 AM
1821 Views
I'm torn here.
- 16/02/2011 08:59:23 PM
1694 Views
So, it seems like the two candidates are ranagrande and Bergioyn
- 17/02/2011 12:06:48 AM
1623 Views
Unvote
- 17/02/2011 01:26:24 AM
1635 Views
If this is the general feeling. I shall go along. *NM*
- 17/02/2011 01:36:06 AM
970 Views
Cool. If you, stephen, and a couple more people vote, we'll have a lynch *NM*
- 17/02/2011 02:58:49 AM
989 Views
This is crap.
- 17/02/2011 07:31:46 AM
1703 Views
Pretty much
- 17/02/2011 03:07:00 PM
1751 Views
Also, I'm not sure if we 7 votes yet but let's not have anymore votes for the moment
- 17/02/2011 03:16:34 PM
1656 Views
Okay, Vote Table, L-1 apparently
- 17/02/2011 03:58:43 PM
1664 Views
Yeah.
- 17/02/2011 08:39:50 PM
1619 Views
Rc
- 17/02/2011 07:54:22 PM
1722 Views
I'll hold off the hammer for the moment
- 18/02/2011 12:01:52 AM
1707 Views
I doubt that'll happen.
- 18/02/2011 02:52:04 AM
1702 Views
Your discussing nothing. Unvote, Vote: Bergioyn *NM*
- 18/02/2011 04:28:17 PM
1002 Views
How odd...
- 18/02/2011 04:48:28 PM
1669 Views
I think he was just impatient and frustrated *NM*
- 18/02/2011 05:12:01 PM
985 Views
he's not the only one
- 18/02/2011 06:45:22 PM
1618 Views
Yeah, but ending it early and cutting off discussion and planning doesn't help.
- 18/02/2011 07:26:14 PM
1810 Views
But suicide?
- 18/02/2011 09:29:27 PM
1689 Views
Well, let's be hypotetical here.
- 18/02/2011 09:32:45 PM
1665 Views
...Scum...? *NM*
- 18/02/2011 10:36:33 PM
984 Views
That is really weird
- 18/02/2011 06:38:15 PM
1590 Views
Too late, I got there first
*NM*
- 18/02/2011 08:45:22 PM
1009 Views
*NM*
- 18/02/2011 08:45:22 PM
1009 Views
No rule against being the super hammer! *NM*
- 18/02/2011 08:56:21 PM
946 Views
Technically, Day ends with the lynch, so we shouldn't be posting at all.
- 18/02/2011 09:46:38 PM
1588 Views
Re: Technically, Day ends with the lynch, so we shouldn't be posting at all.
- 18/02/2011 10:03:11 PM
1656 Views


*NM*