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More or less my take too Isaac Send a noteboard - 24/02/2011 05:29:48 AM
First: Awesome. That'll serve ya right, silly scum. People who don't talk are antisocial, and must be executed.


Yeah, I was fairly surprised he turned out scum, I thought him a bit more likely than random, but particularly when he made it to L-1 I figured he was town.

Second: Dang. Gher was giving quite a few of us pro-town vibes. I'm sure that's why the Mafia NK'd him, but it's still annoying.


I'd guess they probably figured there was good odds he was a LD, didn't have any better leads, and figured he was a good player and better than neutral

Third: No role was given. Was he a townie, or are roles just not given? (I'm guessing the former, but we can't be sure)


I'm guessing vanilla, and ditto for Bergioyn, goon rather, chocolate perhaps, but we don't know for sure yet, I wouldn't normally associate hidden PM with 'back to basics' and we did get other info on them so I think it's just implied with no intended uncertainty, I guess we can ask the Mod, so, Katie if you're reading this, is role hidden on death?

Fourth: Only one kill means either a doctor got lucky, or that this is a pretty simple setup, NK-wise. No vigilantes or Serial Killers.


Well, a vig is generally not supposed to NK on night 1 without a good lead and there wasn't much of one, and a SK might forgo a kill to play vig later or through absence. I'd say the most probable of course is just that though, 3 goons, 9 townies, no extra NK except maybe a one-shot scummer one, I'm still wondering if maybe they have a day kill they can burn at some point, it was kinda implie din the intro as an option.

As for analysis... Not sure yet. The two main things from yesterday are Gher's innocence and Bergioyn's guilt. So, we can look at those two things, see who was reluctant to lynch Berg, maybe come up with something.


To spare the time, nobody expressed much reluctance, at least none out of place for the setup of the lynch, not like anyone, besides the scummers, was positive he was scum or anything. I probably would come up top of the heap for most suspicious, almost everyone either votes or gave tacit support, nobody really defended him, except again I sort of did even if I added that I'd punch his ticket pre-deadline if he didn't give anything new and no one else did, that proves little since I had added that I wasn't sure I'd be there to do it, which would be a great excuse to run out the clock, but I don't lie about RL stuff in game so that deadens some of that. For the other 3 surviving non-voters, stephen, ? and Scott, Scott was RBIRL, which means his vote status is meaningless, ? had come out fairly early as a tacit supporter, which if scum is bussing-lite, people generally do do that but not a whole lot on a thin case like that, easier to just do a 'maybe, but I don't see much evidence' (which I also did unfortunately) and Stephen IIRC did also make some fairly pro-lynch comments. So nobody really sticks out, but the non-voters are still the best place to hunt IMO. Of the voters, hard to say, I would not have bussed him except maybe right at the end, like vote 5 or later at least in this case. In general, besides not liking to bus, if you kill an ally on day 1 like that you have no idea what you're losing, could be a RBer or extra NK, might have important info, but I have no idea if other people put that kind of thought into it or not, so bussing is definitely possible. You seem unlikely, voter #2 was rana, he's certainly willing to bus but he's a capable strategist and I'd expect him to realize bussing wouldn't buy him much since he's known to do it and to realize what he might be losing, so I doubt he's scum either. After that, I don't know. I still like Scott for town, ditto Fox and he was an earlier voter too. I know I'm town, so that leaves me with FT, Hobo and Yuna who voted late in that order, and Stephen and ? from the non-voters. None of them have done anything suspicious, but of course barring ? all of them are old hands at this game and ? is hardly a newb either so that's not surprising, but some have done some pro-townish things too.
Anyone have any other thoughts?


That's more or less my take in a nutshell.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Mafia 21: Tempting Fate on the Second Day - 21/02/2011 01:34:54 PM 1282 Views
Sorry for the delay. - 22/02/2011 01:56:28 PM 806 Views
FIGHT, ITEM, or RUN? *NM* - 22/02/2011 09:44:50 PM 411 Views
FIGHT - 23/02/2011 11:14:07 PM 796 Views
RBIRL - 22/02/2011 08:26:36 PM 809 Views
Kinda busy myself. - 23/02/2011 08:10:21 AM 835 Views
Well, we may as well HC (Table) - 22/02/2011 10:05:16 PM 1095 Views
I targetted Scott Blademaster and found him innocent *NM* - 22/02/2011 10:47:30 PM 410 Views
i found Fox and Ravens to be guilty - 22/02/2011 10:48:07 PM 829 Views
I found beetnemesis to be innocent. *NM* - 22/02/2011 11:09:41 PM 437 Views
I found Isaac guilty. *NM* - 22/02/2011 11:22:07 PM 477 Views
I found ? to be innocent. *NM* - 23/02/2011 12:52:53 AM 412 Views
Yunalesca, innocent. *NM* - 23/02/2011 08:13:40 AM 504 Views
Hobo - Guilty *NM* - 24/02/2011 05:30:13 PM 414 Views
Still need HC's from ? and Scott - 24/02/2011 05:41:38 PM 792 Views
I suppose it's worth asking - 24/02/2011 02:29:51 AM 829 Views
Heh, I was about to ask this - 24/02/2011 03:36:45 AM 828 Views
I didn't get anything. *NM* - 24/02/2011 05:53:54 AM 413 Views
I didn't get anything either... *NM* - 24/02/2011 10:02:07 AM 491 Views
That's enough of that. - 24/02/2011 02:17:46 PM 824 Views
No. - 25/02/2011 02:02:44 PM 850 Views
OK, so... some thoughts. - 24/02/2011 03:49:52 AM 842 Views
More or less my take too - 24/02/2011 05:29:48 AM 1144 Views
Re: More or less my take too - 24/02/2011 01:24:24 PM 992 Views
Yeah, I'd have to say that you're my top suspect right now. - 24/02/2011 02:58:55 PM 785 Views
Re: Yeah, I'd have to say that you're my top suspect right now. - 24/02/2011 03:56:41 PM 823 Views
Just to clarify that point - 24/02/2011 05:39:41 PM 1104 Views
i have some suspicions - 24/02/2011 03:27:21 PM 820 Views
What's up? - 24/02/2011 05:31:26 PM 825 Views
Re: What's up? - 24/02/2011 07:47:19 PM 900 Views
Anything in particular? *NM* - 24/02/2011 09:45:37 PM 436 Views
yeah, one thing in particular - 24/02/2011 10:20:43 PM 833 Views
Re: yeah, one thing in particular - 25/02/2011 01:12:35 AM 854 Views
I really think you should. - 25/02/2011 02:08:28 PM 832 Views
Re: I really think you should. - 25/02/2011 02:34:00 PM 880 Views
Re: I really think you should. - 25/02/2011 04:05:53 PM 875 Views
Re: I really think you should. - 25/02/2011 05:42:40 PM 852 Views
While I'm thinking about it - 25/02/2011 07:21:29 PM 790 Views
Re: While I'm thinking about it - 25/02/2011 09:21:57 PM 755 Views
Okay, I've reviewed Fox's Day 1 statements - 25/02/2011 07:16:52 PM 825 Views
Yeah we really need Yunalesca to clear this up. - 25/02/2011 08:09:01 PM 822 Views
right, gonna take a big risk here - 25/02/2011 10:04:04 PM 824 Views
I guess that's not too surprising - 25/02/2011 10:22:12 PM 841 Views
Re: I guess that's not too surprising - 25/02/2011 10:38:39 PM 893 Views
Also since the cat's out of the bag... - 25/02/2011 10:23:07 PM 871 Views
That would be nice... - 25/02/2011 10:25:52 PM 774 Views
i am - 25/02/2011 10:43:29 PM 872 Views
EBWOP - 25/02/2011 10:44:32 PM 867 Views
That is a big risk. - 25/02/2011 10:24:50 PM 853 Views
Re: That is a big risk. - 25/02/2011 10:32:15 PM 843 Views
Ah I see. - 25/02/2011 11:15:38 PM 836 Views
Re: Ah I see. - 25/02/2011 11:50:40 PM 840 Views
Well, I could have seen that coming. - 26/02/2011 12:31:43 AM 925 Views
Oh, nice counterclaim. - 26/02/2011 12:55:05 AM 773 Views
Okay... you've claimed Doc - 26/02/2011 12:57:56 AM 815 Views
Re: Okay... you've claimed Doc - 26/02/2011 01:14:39 AM 820 Views
Re: Okay... you've claimed Doc - 26/02/2011 07:43:22 AM 863 Views
Oh no! - 26/02/2011 01:12:23 AM 862 Views
So how do we want to do confirmation? - 25/02/2011 10:39:38 PM 868 Views
I see no problems with these questions... - 25/02/2011 11:18:32 PM 832 Views
Seem like good questions - 25/02/2011 11:54:32 PM 783 Views
Re: So how do we want to do confirmation? - 26/02/2011 12:48:03 AM 788 Views
Re: So how do we want to do confirmation? - 26/02/2011 12:48:56 AM 786 Views
Eh... - 26/02/2011 12:57:11 AM 834 Views
Copping Question (Table) - 26/02/2011 12:53:03 AM 862 Views
No. *NM* - 26/02/2011 12:55:53 AM 421 Views
...isn't anyone who says "yes" going to be roled, and quickly nightkilled? *NM* - 26/02/2011 12:59:01 AM 435 Views
Probably, but it doesn't really matter - 26/02/2011 01:02:41 AM 785 Views
Also if she's lying or wrong it doesn't result in a NK - 26/02/2011 01:03:59 AM 788 Views
The only way we'll determine if she's lying or wrong without lynching Fox is if someone RCs - 26/02/2011 01:11:35 AM 904 Views
Yep - 26/02/2011 01:22:00 AM 793 Views
That, or lying. Thus the benefit to us . *NM* - 26/02/2011 07:45:18 AM 410 Views
No. *NM* - 26/02/2011 01:16:31 AM 420 Views
No, also Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/02/2011 01:20:49 AM 857 Views
Remember, this is about Yunalesca's claim. - 26/02/2011 07:53:17 AM 803 Views
You do realize the day is over, right? *NM* - 26/02/2011 10:41:12 AM 423 Views
I didn't at the time . *NM* - 26/02/2011 07:22:49 PM 391 Views
Before this gets too out of hand, Vote: Fox and Ravens. And Isaac, if I could vote twice, you too - 26/02/2011 01:05:59 AM 871 Views
I'm in. - 26/02/2011 01:20:47 AM 810 Views
Re: I'm in. - 26/02/2011 01:54:27 AM 822 Views
Wait, what are you accusing me over? - 26/02/2011 01:26:29 AM 812 Views
It felt like you were fishing for roles. - 26/02/2011 01:37:55 AM 786 Views
You mean by telling the doc not to answer? - 26/02/2011 01:47:09 AM 823 Views
Yeah, ok. That's pretty far fetched. - 26/02/2011 02:26:29 AM 799 Views
Vote Table - 26/02/2011 02:33:46 AM 800 Views
I voted - 26/02/2011 02:46:28 AM 754 Views
Oh, my bad. *NM* - 26/02/2011 05:01:51 AM 431 Views
And I'll be Captain Hammer. - 26/02/2011 03:47:52 AM 828 Views
Re: And I'll be Captain Hammer. - 26/02/2011 04:43:23 AM 853 Views
Fox and Ravens has been Lynched *Twilight Pending* *NM* - 26/02/2011 05:02:14 AM 424 Views
Wow. Way to go team. Sorry I wasn't here. *NM* - 26/02/2011 05:38:05 AM 424 Views
Twilight - 26/02/2011 05:40:22 AM 885 Views
Has anyone played the card game 'Bang'? - 27/02/2011 08:05:00 PM 787 Views
Never heard of it *NM* - 27/02/2011 08:49:58 PM 405 Views
Never played it but I've heard of it *NM* - 27/02/2011 10:45:38 PM 423 Views
I've never even heard of it. And will the goddess kill us for talking? *NM* - 27/02/2011 11:04:47 PM 387 Views
I'll have mercy as long as you're not talking about the game. - 27/02/2011 11:36:00 PM 755 Views
Hehe thanks. *NM* - 28/02/2011 12:03:59 AM 386 Views
i've played it a few times - 28/02/2011 04:39:49 PM 768 Views

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