I thought we had this won, but instead we're on the brink of disaster.

I was quite convinced that you were our vigilante, so if you were a serial killer, you would know I was not the vigilante (I am not) and could use that knowledge to make a falseclaim I would have assuredly bought. So I'll surmise that you are not the serial killer. You might be the remaining mafia, however, which is what makes this situation problematic.

See, supposing I were to trust you and go for your plan of lynching beetnemesis. If you're wrong and beet is what he claims to be, we lose. If you're right about him, but wrong about Hobo, then one of us gets nightkilled and we lose. And I am nowhere near convinced enough that beet and Hobo are both scum. What is your case against Hobo, I wonder?

Anyway, if we have a serial killer and a mafia remaining, both of them active, then it would seem that even if we lynch either one, we will lose anyway. Any lynch we perform requires that not only we lynch a scummer, but also that Hobo be the other scummer. And I want to avoid that kind of desperate situation, and as such I have come up with a gambit that I believe will give us better odds.

Let us assume that we have both an active mafia and an active serial killer. At this point, they are gunning for each other. The town cannot lynch anyone without losing and is therefore no longer a threat, killing a townie now would be futile. If any scummer manages to get the other lynched, that scummer will win.

Therefore, my gamble goes as such: I say that we let the scum try to win. I say we vote for a no-lynch. Essentially, I am betting that with their additional knowledge, both scum have figured out who their counterpart is, and will night kill each other. They cannot do anything but attempt to kill each other, to aim at a townie or refuse to night kill is to risk getting murdered by the other scum. Therefore we know that both scummers will attempt to night kill each other to the best of their abilities. The results will go like this:

If both miss and kill separate townies instead, then the game will end with a total player kill, which would be pretty funny.
If both miss and kill the same townie, we're in the same situation again come tomorrow and may try again.
If one scummer misses, the one who did not wins.
If both scummers strike true, then the town wins.

This is the only solution I can find where the town wins if we have two scum factions active.

Now, let us imagine that Hobo was scum. That means that three of us are town and one is scum, with a night kill, we'll be at a two-to-one ratio come tomorrow, with a single shot at lynching the correct scum.

This is the gamble that I propose.

Also, one of the examples of a correct use of the no-lynch option .

Vote: No Lynch