Zerg Cult seems pretty probable right now, so let's analyze that
Isaac Send a noteboard - 02/07/2012 11:39:47 AM
Unless someone blocked a NK or they bluffed by not throwing theirs if they have one, neither of which is particularly improbable. In their shoes I might bluff the cult route if I weren't just to keep those who were probable marines as targets for suspicion.
Meaning one of us (probably the screamer) was a marine yesterday and is now a zerg cult member. Guessing cult conversion is as hard as NK options, but the usual thinking goes, for NK, in the absence of them having evidence for a power role to remove, go for a player who is a big threat or go for a player who is very unlikely to be docced or watched. Same for a cult with a twist, grab a player who either won't draw attention or grab a player who you expect to be useful to your cause. This generally amounts to the same choices as a NK would, and the calculus on who to select either drives someone for one or the other or a combination thereof. That is to say, 'who is the player no one will notice, or rather second least likely to' and similar.
By my totally non-altruistic reasoning that last bit excludes me, I am essentially 'too obvious', plus a night action magnet with way too high of odds of something going wrong. People are always overly cautious and pessimistic on the dark side and assume townies have way more foresight and cunning then they do, so they try to be unpredictable. And, well, generally there's absolutely nothing unpredictable in murdering or converting Yours Truly. Alternatively we have plenty of good strategists and no weak links to avoid, there simply are no newbs in this game. Anyone makes a good convert of those in game. The next person who comes to mind on the 'Suspicion on general principle' is rangrande, but he's actually also fairly improbable. You might not have thought of him as obvious yet, but a scummer would have. Quite a few people would be pondering him as someone to remove from the equation for fear he'd have cracked their code or hope he might crack the docs. That's unlikely, objectively speaking, but that never matters. The scummer will think about it and they'll probably say 'They'll expect that, better not'. Lone scummers do tend to be more reckless/courageous than committee run Councils of Doom but we all know the sorts of bet hedging and second guessing that tends to come with being a scummer or a power role. So, while I wouldn't rule him out, and nobody is obviously going to rule me out, we're a little too obvious and just not so likely as a result. Especially since we both have reps for evil sinister plans and the reality is while a relative newb might be tempted to grab us as an ally, we don't really have anyone who'd fit that. This isn't, sans protoss SK, a particularly tricky op to run as cult. Last night, the odds would have pointed to 'convert 2 players on night 1 and 2, get 1 townie lynched on day 2, 3v3 Day 3 victory'. There's no need to gamble, and there's no one new enough to the game to miss that. They just need a convert who isn't a weak link and again, there simply aren't any selections of that sort available.
Frankly we're probably LyLo right now and disadvantaged, 2 in 7 chance of picking a bad guy, plus whatever odds on someone having lucked out on a night action last night or tonight, which aren't bad actually. If someone has a magic Zerg detector they would have had 1 in 6, maybe 2 in 6 if conversion was deemed to predate detection in Night Action Order by mod. Similar odds a vig, one shot or full time, nails someone tonight or someone with anti-infection ability exists and is targeted or targets the right guy or whatever. So it's not quite as bleak as 2 in 7 Lylo implies, and we might not be dealing with a standard cult or even a cult, nobody needs to risk converting a Usual Suspect in the hopes we'll cough up a a Xanatos Gambit, just don't get lynched for one more day and pull of a pair of succesful conversions on nights 1 and 2, not complex. Small game, they might only have it every other night, or can only do it once before becoming a normal scum faction, etc.
Still, for right now, I think we should assume we have 2 zerg, call it Overlord and Drone 1, OL and 1, and are LyLo... hopefully someone has something to better our odds of finding OL or 1. No lynch is on the table only if we have roles who can prevent infection or kill at night, otherwise we go into day 3 as 4-3 and a successful lynch would merely make us 4-3 on Night 3, 3-4 on Day 4. There are actually good odds we do have something that decreases the odds of Night 2 or 3 cult victory but I think, unless someone's got something good, that our best plan of action is to find the OL. They're likely be easier to find as they may not know things #1 knew yesterday, and killing them might end cult conversion ability.
Meaning one of us (probably the screamer) was a marine yesterday and is now a zerg cult member. Guessing cult conversion is as hard as NK options, but the usual thinking goes, for NK, in the absence of them having evidence for a power role to remove, go for a player who is a big threat or go for a player who is very unlikely to be docced or watched. Same for a cult with a twist, grab a player who either won't draw attention or grab a player who you expect to be useful to your cause. This generally amounts to the same choices as a NK would, and the calculus on who to select either drives someone for one or the other or a combination thereof. That is to say, 'who is the player no one will notice, or rather second least likely to' and similar.
By my totally non-altruistic reasoning that last bit excludes me, I am essentially 'too obvious', plus a night action magnet with way too high of odds of something going wrong. People are always overly cautious and pessimistic on the dark side and assume townies have way more foresight and cunning then they do, so they try to be unpredictable. And, well, generally there's absolutely nothing unpredictable in murdering or converting Yours Truly. Alternatively we have plenty of good strategists and no weak links to avoid, there simply are no newbs in this game. Anyone makes a good convert of those in game. The next person who comes to mind on the 'Suspicion on general principle' is rangrande, but he's actually also fairly improbable. You might not have thought of him as obvious yet, but a scummer would have. Quite a few people would be pondering him as someone to remove from the equation for fear he'd have cracked their code or hope he might crack the docs. That's unlikely, objectively speaking, but that never matters. The scummer will think about it and they'll probably say 'They'll expect that, better not'. Lone scummers do tend to be more reckless/courageous than committee run Councils of Doom but we all know the sorts of bet hedging and second guessing that tends to come with being a scummer or a power role. So, while I wouldn't rule him out, and nobody is obviously going to rule me out, we're a little too obvious and just not so likely as a result. Especially since we both have reps for evil sinister plans and the reality is while a relative newb might be tempted to grab us as an ally, we don't really have anyone who'd fit that. This isn't, sans protoss SK, a particularly tricky op to run as cult. Last night, the odds would have pointed to 'convert 2 players on night 1 and 2, get 1 townie lynched on day 2, 3v3 Day 3 victory'. There's no need to gamble, and there's no one new enough to the game to miss that. They just need a convert who isn't a weak link and again, there simply aren't any selections of that sort available.
Frankly we're probably LyLo right now and disadvantaged, 2 in 7 chance of picking a bad guy, plus whatever odds on someone having lucked out on a night action last night or tonight, which aren't bad actually. If someone has a magic Zerg detector they would have had 1 in 6, maybe 2 in 6 if conversion was deemed to predate detection in Night Action Order by mod. Similar odds a vig, one shot or full time, nails someone tonight or someone with anti-infection ability exists and is targeted or targets the right guy or whatever. So it's not quite as bleak as 2 in 7 Lylo implies, and we might not be dealing with a standard cult or even a cult, nobody needs to risk converting a Usual Suspect in the hopes we'll cough up a a Xanatos Gambit, just don't get lynched for one more day and pull of a pair of succesful conversions on nights 1 and 2, not complex. Small game, they might only have it every other night, or can only do it once before becoming a normal scum faction, etc.
Still, for right now, I think we should assume we have 2 zerg, call it Overlord and Drone 1, OL and 1, and are LyLo... hopefully someone has something to better our odds of finding OL or 1. No lynch is on the table only if we have roles who can prevent infection or kill at night, otherwise we go into day 3 as 4-3 and a successful lynch would merely make us 4-3 on Night 3, 3-4 on Day 4. There are actually good odds we do have something that decreases the odds of Night 2 or 3 cult victory but I think, unless someone's got something good, that our best plan of action is to find the OL. They're likely be easier to find as they may not know things #1 knew yesterday, and killing them might end cult conversion ability.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Mafia Day 2 - Early Expansion
02/07/2012 09:18:28 AM
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Zerg Cult seems pretty probable right now, so let's analyze that
02/07/2012 11:39:47 AM
- 588 Views
Also we might want to decode in whole or part
02/07/2012 12:53:30 PM
- 567 Views
Not in favor right now
02/07/2012 04:20:17 PM
- 584 Views
Hypocopping?
02/07/2012 03:42:46 PM
- 863 Views
Sure, why not. It's not like it would hurt us even if we gain nothing. *NM*
02/07/2012 04:40:23 PM
- 218 Views
Hah, I forgot about hypocopping. Sure, let's do it, I'll make a seperate post. *NM*
02/07/2012 06:04:03 PM
- 256 Views
So, what should we do? *NM*
04/07/2012 04:00:50 PM
- 257 Views
Some next steps
04/07/2012 07:46:00 PM
- 588 Views
About exposing the doc...
05/07/2012 05:07:14 AM
- 448 Views
I have a stimpack as well.
05/07/2012 12:48:16 PM
- 479 Views
Actually I do
05/07/2012 03:02:30 PM
- 466 Views
So, did anyone have anything happen to them last night? *NM*
06/07/2012 08:06:30 PM
- 262 Views
Well, someone probably got a message saying 'You are now Zerg'...
07/07/2012 12:10:36 AM
- 469 Views
I suppose I'll share what happened to me last night.
07/07/2012 07:59:43 PM
- 503 Views
Let me probe on that one real quick
07/07/2012 08:46:45 PM
- 470 Views
Yes, it is specific.
07/07/2012 09:10:39 PM
- 444 Views
Re: Yes, it is specific.
07/07/2012 10:10:13 PM
- 484 Views
It was in my original role message. *NM*
07/07/2012 10:41:11 PM
- 273 Views
Oh well, I'll take the bait.
08/07/2012 01:33:28 AM
- 622 Views
EBWOP: Oh well, I'll take the bait.
08/07/2012 01:34:22 AM
- 646 Views
I actually kind of expected that
08/07/2012 01:38:48 AM
- 527 Views
Could hear a pindrop in here...
08/07/2012 06:31:22 AM
- 508 Views
Yeah, I went to bed just after posting that.
08/07/2012 11:47:01 AM
- 703 Views
Well I've got to say your encryption is, uh, vague
08/07/2012 06:58:13 PM
- 551 Views
Seems pretty straight forward. Vote: Isaac *NM*
09/07/2012 12:11:03 AM
- 208 Views
Hmm wait...
09/07/2012 01:49:23 AM
- 526 Views
The Casy name thing is in the message I got from FT.
09/07/2012 10:20:49 AM
- 673 Views
I am not voting at this time.
09/07/2012 06:47:18 PM
- 376 Views
This has none of my fingerprints on it, something is clearly up and it literally can't be my doing
09/07/2012 08:59:45 PM
- 505 Views
Vote: Stephen
09/07/2012 11:59:46 PM
- 433 Views
You mean the whole thing where I have been brutally honest and told you everything.
10/07/2012 12:12:06 AM
- 696 Views
No, I mean the totally useless bogus encryption. *NM*
10/07/2012 12:26:26 AM
- 245 Views
Useless and bogus?
10/07/2012 02:04:40 PM
- 642 Views
The main complaint is that your code doesn't contain any role information- HOWEVER
10/07/2012 03:01:45 PM
- 584 Views
Isaac- you said you have a stimpack that doesn't protect against infestation?
10/07/2012 04:40:18 AM
- 1013 Views
Not explicitly, that's why I was fishing with Ranagrande
10/07/2012 05:15:47 AM
- 423 Views
Oh, I see....
10/07/2012 07:10:13 AM
- 578 Views
Vote: Isaac (again)
10/07/2012 03:03:04 PM
- 702 Views
Vote: Stephen, but FOS: Beet, what heck?
10/07/2012 06:58:10 PM
- 505 Views
Unvote. Didn't you claim different symptoms than everyone else, though?
10/07/2012 09:18:38 PM
- 638 Views
Specifically I claimed a symptom that wasn't explcitly listed as one in my RM
10/07/2012 11:01:57 PM
- 446 Views