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Zerg Cult seems pretty probable right now, so let's analyze that Isaac Send a noteboard - 02/07/2012 11:39:47 AM
Unless someone blocked a NK or they bluffed by not throwing theirs if they have one, neither of which is particularly improbable. In their shoes I might bluff the cult route if I weren't just to keep those who were probable marines as targets for suspicion.

Meaning one of us (probably the screamer) was a marine yesterday and is now a zerg cult member. Guessing cult conversion is as hard as NK options, but the usual thinking goes, for NK, in the absence of them having evidence for a power role to remove, go for a player who is a big threat or go for a player who is very unlikely to be docced or watched. Same for a cult with a twist, grab a player who either won't draw attention or grab a player who you expect to be useful to your cause. This generally amounts to the same choices as a NK would, and the calculus on who to select either drives someone for one or the other or a combination thereof. That is to say, 'who is the player no one will notice, or rather second least likely to' and similar.

By my totally non-altruistic reasoning that last bit excludes me, I am essentially 'too obvious', plus a night action magnet with way too high of odds of something going wrong. People are always overly cautious and pessimistic on the dark side and assume townies have way more foresight and cunning then they do, so they try to be unpredictable. And, well, generally there's absolutely nothing unpredictable in murdering or converting Yours Truly. Alternatively we have plenty of good strategists and no weak links to avoid, there simply are no newbs in this game. Anyone makes a good convert of those in game. The next person who comes to mind on the 'Suspicion on general principle' is rangrande, but he's actually also fairly improbable. You might not have thought of him as obvious yet, but a scummer would have. Quite a few people would be pondering him as someone to remove from the equation for fear he'd have cracked their code or hope he might crack the docs. That's unlikely, objectively speaking, but that never matters. The scummer will think about it and they'll probably say 'They'll expect that, better not'. Lone scummers do tend to be more reckless/courageous than committee run Councils of Doom but we all know the sorts of bet hedging and second guessing that tends to come with being a scummer or a power role. So, while I wouldn't rule him out, and nobody is obviously going to rule me out, we're a little too obvious and just not so likely as a result. Especially since we both have reps for evil sinister plans and the reality is while a relative newb might be tempted to grab us as an ally, we don't really have anyone who'd fit that. This isn't, sans protoss SK, a particularly tricky op to run as cult. Last night, the odds would have pointed to 'convert 2 players on night 1 and 2, get 1 townie lynched on day 2, 3v3 Day 3 victory'. There's no need to gamble, and there's no one new enough to the game to miss that. They just need a convert who isn't a weak link and again, there simply aren't any selections of that sort available.

Frankly we're probably LyLo right now and disadvantaged, 2 in 7 chance of picking a bad guy, plus whatever odds on someone having lucked out on a night action last night or tonight, which aren't bad actually. If someone has a magic Zerg detector they would have had 1 in 6, maybe 2 in 6 if conversion was deemed to predate detection in Night Action Order by mod. Similar odds a vig, one shot or full time, nails someone tonight or someone with anti-infection ability exists and is targeted or targets the right guy or whatever. So it's not quite as bleak as 2 in 7 Lylo implies, and we might not be dealing with a standard cult or even a cult, nobody needs to risk converting a Usual Suspect in the hopes we'll cough up a a Xanatos Gambit, just don't get lynched for one more day and pull of a pair of succesful conversions on nights 1 and 2, not complex. Small game, they might only have it every other night, or can only do it once before becoming a normal scum faction, etc.

Still, for right now, I think we should assume we have 2 zerg, call it Overlord and Drone 1, OL and 1, and are LyLo... hopefully someone has something to better our odds of finding OL or 1. No lynch is on the table only if we have roles who can prevent infection or kill at night, otherwise we go into day 3 as 4-3 and a successful lynch would merely make us 4-3 on Night 3, 3-4 on Day 4. There are actually good odds we do have something that decreases the odds of Night 2 or 3 cult victory but I think, unless someone's got something good, that our best plan of action is to find the OL. They're likely be easier to find as they may not know things #1 knew yesterday, and killing them might end cult conversion ability.


The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Mafia Day 2 - Early Expansion - 02/07/2012 09:18:28 AM 2108 Views
Crew Status - 02/07/2012 09:19:36 AM 565 Views
Zerg Cult seems pretty probable right now, so let's analyze that - 02/07/2012 11:39:47 AM 668 Views
Also we might want to decode in whole or part - 02/07/2012 12:53:30 PM 642 Views
Decoding sounds good. *NM* - 02/07/2012 03:41:06 PM 451 Views
Not in favor right now - 02/07/2012 04:20:17 PM 656 Views
Ow, wait, I think I see what you mean now - 02/07/2012 04:23:19 PM 539 Views
No, I actually forgot the doc's name-tied. - 02/07/2012 04:31:32 PM 616 Views
Re: Not in favor right now - 02/07/2012 05:50:36 PM 512 Views
Hypocopping? - 02/07/2012 03:42:46 PM 938 Views
Hypocop thread! (Table) - 02/07/2012 06:09:27 PM 595 Views
Re: Hypocop thread! (Table) - 02/07/2012 06:39:16 PM 658 Views
Re: Hypocop thread! (Table) - 02/07/2012 11:20:44 PM 578 Views
I found myself to be innocent - 02/07/2012 11:53:41 PM 601 Views
I found Bergioyn innocent. *NM* - 02/07/2012 11:55:34 PM 282 Views
I found Isaac to be guilty *NM* - 03/07/2012 02:21:35 PM 462 Views
I found Bergioyn to be guilty *NM* - 03/07/2012 06:38:44 PM 279 Views
If Hypocopping is a thing, is Metadoccing too? - 03/07/2012 07:11:51 AM 539 Views
You can do it as is with the HC, but it serves little point - 03/07/2012 02:10:32 PM 636 Views
What's your hypocop? *NM* - 03/07/2012 03:00:36 PM 289 Views
So, what should we do? *NM* - 04/07/2012 04:00:50 PM 285 Views
Some next steps - 04/07/2012 07:46:00 PM 682 Views
About exposing the doc... - 05/07/2012 05:07:14 AM 518 Views
I have a stimpack as well. - 05/07/2012 12:48:16 PM 547 Views
Actually I do - 05/07/2012 03:02:30 PM 537 Views
So... - 05/07/2012 03:19:21 PM 508 Views
Re: So... - 05/07/2012 08:50:37 PM 662 Views
I...still don't get your logic here. - 06/07/2012 01:36:23 AM 598 Views
Re: Actually I do - 05/07/2012 03:42:29 PM 577 Views
I do not have a stimpack. *NM* - 06/07/2012 01:58:00 PM 375 Views
Woah. *NM* - 06/07/2012 03:17:40 PM 239 Views
RBIRL for the weekend. - 05/07/2012 07:12:35 AM 648 Views
So I'm still here. - 07/07/2012 10:06:47 PM 665 Views
So, did anyone have anything happen to them last night? *NM* - 06/07/2012 08:06:30 PM 297 Views
Well, someone probably got a message saying 'You are now Zerg'... - 07/07/2012 12:10:36 AM 555 Views
Agreed. *NM* - 07/07/2012 10:50:18 AM 315 Views
I suppose I'll share what happened to me last night. - 07/07/2012 07:59:43 PM 582 Views
Let me probe on that one real quick - 07/07/2012 08:46:45 PM 545 Views
Yes, it is specific. - 07/07/2012 09:10:39 PM 519 Views
Re: Yes, it is specific. - 07/07/2012 10:10:13 PM 562 Views
It was in my original role message. *NM* - 07/07/2012 10:41:11 PM 302 Views
Okay, that's a bit different then - 07/07/2012 11:04:24 PM 593 Views
I was intentionally ambiguous. - 07/07/2012 11:13:45 PM 525 Views
Oh well, I'll take the bait. - 08/07/2012 01:33:28 AM 689 Views
EBWOP: Oh well, I'll take the bait. - 08/07/2012 01:34:22 AM 722 Views
I actually kind of expected that - 08/07/2012 01:38:48 AM 601 Views
Could hear a pindrop in here... - 08/07/2012 06:31:22 AM 581 Views
Re: Could hear a pindrop in here... - 08/07/2012 08:01:21 AM 583 Views
Yeah, I went to bed just after posting that. - 08/07/2012 11:47:01 AM 768 Views
Well I've got to say your encryption is, uh, vague - 08/07/2012 06:58:13 PM 622 Views
...wait, what? - 08/07/2012 11:38:20 PM 651 Views
Re: ...wait, what? - 09/07/2012 12:24:45 AM 626 Views
So... what does that mean? - 08/07/2012 11:39:58 PM 564 Views
I'm a Ghost Agent - 09/07/2012 10:19:31 AM 784 Views
Seems pretty straight forward. Vote: Isaac *NM* - 09/07/2012 12:11:03 AM 237 Views
Hmm wait... - 09/07/2012 01:49:23 AM 605 Views
The Casy name thing is in the message I got from FT. - 09/07/2012 10:20:49 AM 743 Views
Okay. - 09/07/2012 12:05:16 PM 710 Views
I'll direct you to my reply to Isaac. - 09/07/2012 12:22:59 PM 727 Views
RBIRL until Sunday night *NM* - 07/07/2012 03:22:35 AM 234 Views
Vote: Isaac - 09/07/2012 05:26:26 PM 692 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac - 09/07/2012 06:36:47 PM 570 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac - 09/07/2012 09:41:55 PM 598 Views
I am not voting at this time. - 09/07/2012 06:47:18 PM 454 Views
This has none of my fingerprints on it, something is clearly up and it literally can't be my doing - 09/07/2012 08:59:45 PM 572 Views
Unvote for now- but I have a question below. - 10/07/2012 04:38:27 AM 658 Views
About that last one - 10/07/2012 08:27:35 AM 596 Views
Vote: Stephen - 09/07/2012 11:59:46 PM 505 Views
You mean the whole thing where I have been brutally honest and told you everything. - 10/07/2012 12:12:06 AM 810 Views
No, I mean the totally useless bogus encryption. *NM* - 10/07/2012 12:26:26 AM 276 Views
Useless and bogus? - 10/07/2012 02:04:40 PM 726 Views
Vote: Stephen - 10/07/2012 04:34:03 AM 584 Views
Isaac- you said you have a stimpack that doesn't protect against infestation? - 10/07/2012 04:40:18 AM 1080 Views
Not explicitly, that's why I was fishing with Ranagrande - 10/07/2012 05:15:47 AM 491 Views
Oh, I see.... - 10/07/2012 07:10:13 AM 673 Views
From your Night Message? - 10/07/2012 08:04:03 AM 513 Views
I was protected and not targeted, to my knowledge. *NM* - 10/07/2012 08:14:47 AM 310 Views
Re: Oh, I see.... - 10/07/2012 09:17:25 AM 591 Views
Vote: Isaac (again) - 10/07/2012 03:03:04 PM 773 Views
Vote: Stephen, but FOS: Beet, what heck? - 10/07/2012 06:58:10 PM 585 Views
Congratulations, ?! You get to cast the deciding vote! - 10/07/2012 04:49:20 PM 578 Views
None at all. *NM* - 10/07/2012 05:05:51 PM 467 Views
Oh wonderful. - 10/07/2012 05:38:45 PM 738 Views
Unvote - 10/07/2012 07:40:34 PM 493 Views
Re: Unvote - 10/07/2012 08:32:06 PM 663 Views
Stephen lynched - 11/07/2012 02:00:24 AM 652 Views
Ha! Nice reference. *NM* - 11/07/2012 04:15:36 AM 372 Views
Nice death scene. *NM* - 11/07/2012 03:39:40 PM 445 Views
I hate to say I told you so, but ... - 12/07/2012 09:13:09 AM 501 Views

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