Active Users:182 Time:18/05/2024 07:31:14 PM
Day 1 no-lynch is an absolutely and objectively detrimental technique for the Light. Fanatic-Templar Send a noteboard - 28/09/2009 07:24:01 PM
The objective of the game is to catch the Darkfriends, not to save the Lightsiders. Not lynching gives us one less chance of doing that, at no benefit in longevity for the town.

For example, suppose that out of fifteen players we have 5 Darkfriends (or assorted scum.) The starting ratio of Lightsiders vs Darkfriends is 10-5. Now, assuming one night kill every night, here's how many attempts we have to catch a Darkfriend:

Numbers go as follow: Lightsiders-Darkfriends (lynch attempts made)

Day 1 lynch / Day 1 no-lynch
Day 1: 10-5 (0) / 10-5 (0)
Day 2: 8-5 (1) / 9-5 (0)
Day 3: 6-5 (2) (ly-lo) / 7-5 (1)
Day 4: 4-5 (3, lost) / 5-5 (2) (lost)

So you see, a no lynch doesn't gain us any additional time, while it actually loses us one attempt to lynch the Darkfriends.

Or what if we have six Darkfriends?

Day 1 lynch / Day 1 no-lynch
Day 1: 9-6 (0) / 9-6 (0)
Day 2: 7-6 (1, lylo) / 8-6 (0)
Day 3: 5-6 (2, lost) / 7-5 (1, lost)

Same results.

Four Darkfriends?

Day 1 lynch / Day 1 no-lynch
Day 1: 11-4 (0) / 11-4 (0)
Day 2: 9-4 (1) / 10-4 (0)
Day 3: 7-4 (2) / 8-4 (1)
Day 4: 5-4 (3, ly-lo) / 6-4 (2)
Day 5: 3-4 (4, lost) / 4-4 (3, lost)

Same results.

Let's try it with five Darkfriends and a serial killer. Chances to get a Darkfriend.

Day 1 lynch / Day 1 no-lynch
Day 1: 9-5-1 (0) / 9-5-1 (0)
Day 2: 7-5-1 (1) / 8-5-1 (0)
Day 3: 5-5-1 (2, ly-lo) / 6-5-1 (1)
Day 4: 3-5-1 (3, lost) / 4-5-1 (2, lost)

Same results.

Now let's add that the serial killer also kills a Lightsider each night.

Day 1 lynch / Day 1 no-lynch
Day 1: 9-5-1 (0) / 9-5-1 (0)
Day 2: 6-5-1 (1) / 7-5-1 (0)
Day 3: 3-5-1 (2, lost) / 4-5-1 (1, lost)

Same results.

Essentially, with odd no-lynch gives us no advantage, but saves the Darkfriends from one of their risks. With even numbers, no lynch gives nothing, but does not cost a lynch attempt either. But it's still a bad idea subjectively.

That was the objective part.

Now, the other reason we need to lynch, is because lynches give evidence. I don't think there has been a single Lightsider lynch thus far that has not included Darkfriend participation. So even if we do lynch a Lightsider, that allows us to narrow the scope of investigation. It also removes one of the decoys the Darkfriends get to hide behind. The number of Lightsiders in the early game is a disadvantage for us, it basically confuses the Light's investigation and allows the Darkfriends to hide in the crowd.

A day 1 no-lynch saves the Darkfriends' cover while depriving us of the information that would allow us to narrow the scope of investigation. Like shooting ourselves in both feet with a single bullet.

And with the objective detriment I pointed out at the beginning, that's three serious disadvantages for a no-lynch, compared to zero advantages.
The first rule of being a ninja is "do no harm". Unless you intend to do harm, then do lots of harm.
~Master Splinter

Victorious in Bergioyn's legendary 'Reverse Mafia'. *MySmiley*
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EBWOP - 23/09/2009 12:39:17 PM 1247 Views
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Re: You haven't sparred with him as much - 23/09/2009 04:34:24 PM 1216 Views
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I hope he's Iago. - 23/09/2009 07:49:55 PM 1271 Views
Look at this. I'm so ticked off that I'm molting.! *NM* - 23/09/2009 08:37:42 PM 750 Views
Off the record ... - 23/09/2009 08:44:49 PM 1220 Views
Re: Vote: Gher - 23/09/2009 06:15:03 PM 1110 Views
Alright. - 23/09/2009 06:49:34 PM 1256 Views
White Light or Darkness [Table]: That's everyone, unless Marshall wants to clarify - 23/09/2009 06:54:40 PM 1196 Views
Mine said light. *NM* - 23/09/2009 08:22:31 PM 736 Views
white light. *NM* - 23/09/2009 09:00:43 PM 749 Views
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White light. *NM* - 23/09/2009 11:42:32 PM 690 Views
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White light as well *NM* - 24/09/2009 12:43:22 AM 739 Views
Yeah, white light. - 24/09/2009 01:14:59 AM 1180 Views
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But this is...all white light answer. lol. *NM* - 24/09/2009 01:59:02 AM 725 Views
Well there are still a few who haven't responded yet. - 24/09/2009 05:01:42 AM 1033 Views
White and Bright. *NM* - 24/09/2009 02:07:49 AM 719 Views
Re: White Light or Darkness [Table]: (Updated at 1:50:56 24/09 RAFO time) 7 have answered, 7 haven't - 24/09/2009 02:55:25 AM 1232 Views
Vote: Blaine - 24/09/2009 04:31:27 AM 1147 Views
Re: Vote: Blaine - 24/09/2009 04:53:46 AM 1164 Views
Are you completely sure? - 24/09/2009 11:18:36 PM 1235 Views
Re: Are you completely sure? - 25/09/2009 12:46:43 AM 1087 Views
Re: Are you completely sure? - 25/09/2009 12:54:38 AM 1078 Views
White + Very Bright *NM* - 24/09/2009 04:49:14 AM 681 Views
VERY BRIGHT you say? Is that what everyone else got? Hmmmm *NM* - 24/09/2009 04:54:57 AM 735 Views
Nope, just white. *NM* - 24/09/2009 05:26:10 AM 703 Views
white light i believe *NM* - 24/09/2009 05:00:12 AM 640 Views
I'll claim Darkness for fun - 24/09/2009 09:25:40 AM 1218 Views
May I ask why you made a random choice? - 24/09/2009 08:57:25 PM 1219 Views
Bright White Light *NM* - 24/09/2009 11:01:31 AM 728 Views
Whoops! Was Editing fobridden? I just changed it from Whte Light to Bright White Light after ... - 24/09/2009 11:05:37 AM 1087 Views
Yes, editing is forbidden. - 24/09/2009 12:25:46 PM 1210 Views
Wohoo! - 24/09/2009 05:24:26 PM 1190 Views
I got darkness. - 24/09/2009 11:16:40 PM 1205 Views
and it's your turn Gher! *NM* - 25/09/2009 12:55:29 AM 619 Views
Why don't you tell us what you got? - 25/09/2009 01:58:54 AM 1143 Views
^Seconded. - 25/09/2009 02:28:38 AM 1123 Views
Re: ^Seconded. - 25/09/2009 03:02:47 AM 1162 Views
Whaat??? I didn't check for 2 days and there is 91 new replies!? *NM* - 24/09/2009 10:37:46 AM 728 Views
I will be gone until monday, I couldn't remember the time of inactivity required for modkill, so... - 24/09/2009 09:47:07 PM 1333 Views
get him! - 24/09/2009 10:00:43 PM 1297 Views
Re: get him! - 25/09/2009 12:50:24 AM 1169 Views
Hmm... I swear I replied to this. - 25/09/2009 01:37:05 AM 1087 Views
Aww, I wanted to kill someone - 25/09/2009 01:52:28 AM 1144 Views
You can kill him, he just won't be modkilled. - 25/09/2009 02:20:51 AM 1167 Views
Over 200 posts and nothing has happened or been decided besides one mod-kill. Come on guys. - 25/09/2009 01:55:45 AM 1201 Views
Day 1 posts aren't as important on Day 1 as they are later. - 25/09/2009 03:05:15 AM 1128 Views
Good Point I suppose *NM* - 25/09/2009 03:17:06 AM 742 Views
Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch. - 25/09/2009 03:50:26 AM 1152 Views
I think we've been 500+ a couple times, haven't we? *NM* - 25/09/2009 03:51:32 AM 712 Views
Re: I think we've been 500+ a couple times, haven't we? - 25/09/2009 04:45:09 AM 1141 Views
Re: Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch. - 25/09/2009 04:44:37 AM 1212 Views
Re: Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch. - 26/09/2009 09:31:02 PM 1163 Views
I didn't think so. - 26/09/2009 11:05:18 PM 1162 Views
Re: Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch. - 27/09/2009 01:03:01 AM 1245 Views
It's all good. - 27/09/2009 03:00:49 AM 1286 Views
All right, White Light and Darkness. - 25/09/2009 03:00:51 AM 1193 Views
Thanks for the reveal. - 25/09/2009 03:13:49 AM 1158 Views
Sure. - 25/09/2009 03:31:15 AM 1235 Views
You know I'm a WoT character. *NM* - 25/09/2009 05:21:24 AM 720 Views
Re: All right, White Light and Darkness. - 25/09/2009 06:03:23 AM 1179 Views
Same here- people with charts make me suspicious - 25/09/2009 02:32:26 PM 1214 Views
I'm from WoT. *NM* - 25/09/2009 11:53:27 PM 656 Views
Well, at the rate this is going... - 26/09/2009 10:38:49 PM 1170 Views
...I guess this makes sense for you - 26/09/2009 11:18:02 PM 1341 Views
I think I missed something - 27/09/2009 01:29:38 AM 1191 Views
He didn't exactly lie... - 27/09/2009 02:13:02 AM 1211 Views
I will say.... - 27/09/2009 05:23:37 AM 1290 Views
Re: I will say.... - 27/09/2009 05:58:10 AM 1319 Views
Yeah, some people did... - 28/09/2009 12:46:37 AM 1252 Views
Wrong spot, my bad. *NM* - 28/09/2009 02:48:15 AM 663 Views
Well, yeah. - 27/09/2009 05:31:11 AM 1141 Views
Re:Well, yeah. - 27/09/2009 05:42:23 AM 1184 Views
Re: Well, yeah. - 27/09/2009 06:10:53 AM 1218 Views
Re: Well, yeah. - 27/09/2009 06:50:39 AM 1228 Views
My two cents- Gher is making me nervous. He's doing divide-and-conquer - 27/09/2009 06:26:33 PM 1234 Views
So! <b>Vote: Gher</b> *NM* - 27/09/2009 06:27:01 PM 710 Views
Sigh... - 27/09/2009 06:31:04 PM 1185 Views
You're from Twilight?!? - 27/09/2009 06:32:56 AM 1207 Views
There were supposed to be a lot of Enters between the two. *NM* - 27/09/2009 06:59:48 AM 756 Views
Now I'm really confused. - 27/09/2009 07:39:35 AM 1175 Views
What just happened there? *NM* - 27/09/2009 09:07:36 AM 700 Views
I think... - 27/09/2009 09:31:10 AM 1175 Views
I guess - 27/09/2009 09:33:30 AM 1190 Views
...yeah - 27/09/2009 06:51:03 PM 1111 Views
Re: ...yeah - 28/09/2009 12:53:04 AM 1210 Views
Re: Well, at the rate this is going... - 27/09/2009 12:54:28 AM 1296 Views
I'm going to go with the other one - 27/09/2009 06:36:41 AM 1134 Views
WOO - 27/09/2009 02:03:10 AM 1043 Views
Re: WOO - 27/09/2009 02:16:42 AM 1202 Views
are you asking me personally? - 27/09/2009 04:13:16 AM 1244 Views
Moving into the full blown voting phase... - 27/09/2009 09:15:00 AM 1182 Views
That's a very good idea - 27/09/2009 06:53:23 PM 1200 Views
Vote Table (Update 6:41 RAFO time) - 27/09/2009 04:39:20 PM 1396 Views
Well, I don't see what Gher did as a problem... - 27/09/2009 05:00:32 PM 1180 Views
See my post above for why I think Hobo is innocent, and Gher likely a DF - 27/09/2009 06:36:57 PM 1271 Views
I don't know about this - 27/09/2009 06:55:21 PM 1150 Views
What does "bussed?" mean - 27/09/2009 07:03:20 PM 1155 Views
It's when Darkfriends - 27/09/2009 07:08:31 PM 1131 Views
Not necessarily to save themselves - 27/09/2009 07:54:00 PM 1213 Views
Re: What does "bussed?" mean - 27/09/2009 08:57:21 PM 1183 Views
Wouldn't talking more be less supicious? - 27/09/2009 09:11:19 PM 1193 Views
since gher has lied - 27/09/2009 06:21:28 PM 1175 Views
I'll go with it. - 27/09/2009 06:24:08 PM 1171 Views
For the same reason... - 27/09/2009 08:14:53 PM 1109 Views
Re: For the same reason... - 28/09/2009 12:59:35 AM 1055 Views
For clarity's sake - 27/09/2009 06:40:16 PM 1108 Views
I didn't vote - 27/09/2009 06:56:48 PM 1188 Views
Yeah, you voted for him a while ago for being a bad sister. *NM* - 27/09/2009 07:05:05 PM 709 Views
Jeez I forgot about that. Alright then. My bad!! *NM* - 27/09/2009 07:54:57 PM 720 Views
You voted for Gher near the beginning - 27/09/2009 07:05:10 PM 1200 Views
Looks like I started something... - 27/09/2009 11:42:46 PM 1201 Views
Re: Looks like I started something... - 28/09/2009 12:57:51 AM 1186 Views
Why have I been singled out? - 28/09/2009 03:08:44 AM 1169 Views
Well, it looks like I'll be today's casualty - 28/09/2009 12:43:56 AM 1129 Views
I don't know if an RC will help you - 28/09/2009 01:00:59 AM 1124 Views
For what it's worth, - 28/09/2009 01:02:19 AM 1188 Views
I'm back--let me read over stuff. Will be prepared by tomorrow. *NM* - 28/09/2009 01:23:58 AM 697 Views
It's kinda weird that people suspect you - 28/09/2009 05:14:11 AM 1060 Views
Vote Table - 28/09/2009 02:50:02 AM 1126 Views
How bout a deal? - 28/09/2009 05:09:28 AM 1367 Views
Some of us already knew that - 28/09/2009 12:32:51 PM 1100 Views
Look, I'm all for lynching Hobo... - 28/09/2009 01:48:07 PM 1010 Views
I really don't like this "voting just for the sake of a lynch" business. - 28/09/2009 03:48:51 PM 1236 Views
Why is Gher less suspicious? - 28/09/2009 05:21:51 PM 1291 Views
Re: Why is Gher less suspicious? - 28/09/2009 06:41:13 PM 1098 Views
*NM* - 28/09/2009 07:20:32 PM 674 Views
*bows* - 28/09/2009 11:12:20 PM 1228 Views
I'm not saying Gher is less suspicious. - 28/09/2009 07:11:16 PM 1155 Views
So what do you think the Darkness and Light refer to? *NM* - 28/09/2009 11:11:46 PM 715 Views
I think his point was that lynching someone is better than lynching no one. - 28/09/2009 07:49:47 PM 1229 Views
I think my death will teach you something. - 28/09/2009 08:55:08 PM 1088 Views
I am on F-T's side of the Lynch v NoLynch argument. - 28/09/2009 09:08:17 PM 1156 Views
Re: How bout a deal? - 28/09/2009 02:21:57 PM 1200 Views
I don't think so - 28/09/2009 03:07:42 PM 1215 Views
Ooh, a third party does seem kind of likely, doesn't it? - 28/09/2009 03:30:10 PM 1134 Views
It's a high probability - 28/09/2009 03:45:40 PM 1016 Views
So, you're saying that if Gher was innocent, he would have been lynched by now? - 28/09/2009 05:06:05 PM 1261 Views
That's a theory that is applied almost every game. - 28/09/2009 05:16:44 PM 1023 Views
It is - 28/09/2009 06:12:35 PM 1061 Views
Deal *NM* - 28/09/2009 10:04:16 PM 673 Views
I think we shouldn't lynch anyone first day. - 28/09/2009 04:55:43 PM 1202 Views
I demand blood! Plus, with so many people, we're likely to hit at least ONE faction, - 28/09/2009 05:15:34 PM 1046 Views
Well, I'm still not covinced. - 28/09/2009 06:04:52 PM 1262 Views
Day 1 no-lynch is an absolutely and objectively detrimental technique for the Light. - 28/09/2009 07:24:01 PM 1227 Views
I'm convinced now. - 28/09/2009 09:02:55 PM 1217 Views
There are many other factors than pure math involved. - 28/09/2009 09:11:34 PM 1053 Views
Thanks for making me doubt again. - 28/09/2009 09:26:17 PM 1163 Views
Vote for Hobo now. - 28/09/2009 09:27:49 PM 1147 Views
It doesn't? - 28/09/2009 09:31:17 PM 1239 Views
Vote Table (Update 2:21 RAFO time) - 28/09/2009 06:01:00 PM 1192 Views
RBIRL - 28/09/2009 06:59:59 PM 1161 Views
All right - 28/09/2009 10:03:40 PM 1247 Views
So... - 28/09/2009 10:47:44 PM 1073 Views
Well now that people are actually doing this.... - 28/09/2009 11:07:25 PM 1261 Views
Sure, why not - 29/09/2009 02:05:21 AM 1214 Views
I missed the whole Hobo thing...why is he being targetted? - 29/09/2009 12:45:31 AM 1189 Views
Re: I missed the whole Hobo thing...why is he being targetted? - 29/09/2009 02:38:21 AM 1310 Views
No particular reason. - 29/09/2009 03:11:15 AM 1219 Views
for the sake of a lynch - 29/09/2009 02:37:15 AM 1179 Views
Hobo has been Lynched. - 29/09/2009 03:31:32 AM 1243 Views
*Desperately waits for the end scenario* - 29/09/2009 05:17:57 AM 1220 Views
Happy now? *NM* - 29/09/2009 05:35:43 AM 762 Views
Twilight Scene - 29/09/2009 05:34:41 AM 1427 Views
Dangit!! - 29/09/2009 11:10:19 PM 1217 Views

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