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Re: That's not exactly universally true on finite probabilities inevitably happening Tor Send a noteboard - 24/03/2013 07:17:22 AM

View original postThere's a few ways one can get around the whole 'if something it finitely probable, after a long enough time it will eventually occur' because that phrasing is a simplification.

As an example, if something has a 10% chance of happening every minute, it will eventually occur, like on an order of less than an hour. However if the first minute it has a 10% chance, and the second minute a 5% chance, and the third minute a 2.5% etc then it is always possible for the event to happen, but it is not inevitable over an infinite time.


Excellent, I didn't think of that. Though I'm not sure it's reasonable to assume the probability of the Dark One winning will decrease sufficiently fast with time that the expectation value will not converge to 1.



View original postI'm sure RJ didn't miss that either, so he either had an explanation or considered it a legit handwave, and he does list the DO as lord of paradox.

We're also dealing with competing probabilities here too. The wheel isn't a passive system and the show and tell on the wheel is that it has the ability to play with probability. Explicitly and repetitively that taveren can never achieve an impossible result but regularly get improbable results. Finite chance inevitability gets a bit questionable when you have a situation where someone can play with probability itself.

Clearly Moridin believed it was a finite probability and thus inevitable, that's his character motivation. Rand might consider it so too but keeps going on since 101 turnings is better than 100.


It would indeed have been very interesting to put this question to RJ.

Fram kamerater!
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