Since I posted that, the situation has indeed changed already. Apparently Gordon Brown rang Nick Clegg up in a fury that he was talking to the Tories, which has left the LibDems extremely reluctant to ally with Labour. Clegg's relations and conversations with Cameron are reported to be far more cordial. Combined with the Tories' greater mandate, this has left the LibDems more likely to align with the Tories then their traditional differences would suggest.

However, the Tories appear to remain divided on the issue. The frontbenchers, the shadow cabinet and so on seem much more happy to discuss an alliance than the backbenchers and grass-roots, who are far more angry about the situation. They may yet scupper the chances of an alliance. The LibDem grass-roots are also reportedly less happy about the idea of a Tory alliance, and due to the LibDem rules they have a greater say in what happens, so they may also vote down the proposal.

Still all to play for, but it does look like Brown may have shot himself in the foot (yet again), and if there is a LibDem-Labour alliance it might have to be without Brown.