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Yes, that is the danger. Libby Send a noteboard - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM
The biggest question is really what does North Korea see as crossing the Rubicon. I do believe there some obvious red lines that even North Korea won't cross, initially firing artillery or missiles at Seoul or crossing the DMZ toward the south - because those actions will blatantly lead to all out conflict.

A manufactured crisis only remains a crisis for a while; the longer the situation drags on the closer it comes to becoming just a new status quo. If the North must continually increase the pressure just to manufacture a "new" crisis, at some point it will reach a point where the regime must go to war or collapse.


That's true, although I don't feel the regime has any fear of collapse as long as they have guaranteed aid coming from China. And China won't cut off aid because of fear the regime would collapse.

Additionally, the closer each "crisis" comes to actual war, the greater the chance of accidentally starting a full war - someone shoots a gun, artillery is fired in response, leading to return fire, then a natural escalation...


That's why I feel it's important that we need to look at this situation calmly and plan our moves accordingly. As I said, this can easily slip from one's control. I do feel all regimes, no matter how bat-shit crazy and eccentric, have a strong self-preservation streak. After all, if they didn't care about their survival, they wouldn't last very long.
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Oh, by the way...has anyone noticed how close the Korean peninsula is to war? - 24/05/2010 02:04:12 PM 1089 Views
I was wondering when something would be posted about this - 24/05/2010 02:49:54 PM 785 Views
haha. I love that mental image - 24/05/2010 02:51:53 PM 697 Views
But does North Korea really listen to China that much anymore? - 24/05/2010 02:55:04 PM 727 Views
that might well be a good point - 24/05/2010 03:20:32 PM 695 Views
Very interesting point. That is a wild card. *NM* - 24/05/2010 03:27:53 PM 247 Views
The explaination I have heard... - 24/05/2010 09:05:40 PM 732 Views
I don't know... - 24/05/2010 09:49:25 PM 648 Views
No, because China doesn't want us in the region. - 25/05/2010 12:20:47 AM 686 Views
Um, wasn't that pretty much always understood? - 25/05/2010 12:08:12 AM 644 Views
yah, it doesn't look to be a good situation - 24/05/2010 02:50:08 PM 697 Views
If there were a war with North Korea the US has the resources to deal with it. - 24/05/2010 02:56:39 PM 718 Views
mm. well I don't much like that either, to be honest. - 24/05/2010 03:00:29 PM 710 Views
Wikipedia is your friend. - 24/05/2010 03:08:33 PM 877 Views
ah mk. Thanks!! - 24/05/2010 04:39:49 PM 658 Views
Still scary and you know that using those would escalate everything. - 24/05/2010 03:26:12 PM 666 Views
Korea is directly in our sphere of influence - 24/05/2010 03:37:18 PM 622 Views
I meant "we" in a personal sense, not a national sense. - 24/05/2010 05:36:40 PM 771 Views
In a personal sense, we could hijack a nuclear silo and shoot an ICBM at Pyongyang. - 24/05/2010 05:50:52 PM 597 Views
Oh yuck - there are far better ways. - 24/05/2010 06:01:44 PM 639 Views
yah... - 24/05/2010 06:27:37 PM 672 Views
Re: yah... - 24/05/2010 06:34:13 PM 660 Views
That would totally blow my cover of being a nerdy little grandma. - 24/05/2010 09:37:28 PM 619 Views
I don't think the US could, if China decided to get involved - 24/05/2010 08:45:23 PM 603 Views
A part of me says just get it over with - 24/05/2010 03:21:06 PM 606 Views
I agree that if war is inevitable, it is much better to start it at a time of our choosing. - 24/05/2010 03:48:36 PM 760 Views
I agree - 24/05/2010 04:17:19 PM 776 Views
Pretty much agree with all of that. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:17:27 PM 277 Views
I'm trying not to. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:25:06 PM 250 Views
This. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:28:20 PM 274 Views
I understand - 24/05/2010 06:00:09 PM 612 Views
Yes - 24/05/2010 06:05:25 PM 626 Views
i agree - 24/05/2010 06:28:37 PM 642 Views
This has disaster written all over it *NM* - 24/05/2010 08:39:37 PM 264 Views
Technically, weren't we always? - 24/05/2010 08:51:29 PM 622 Views
Exactly. - 25/05/2010 12:07:32 AM 673 Views
I try to block it out with thought's of a puppet singing "I'm So Ronery". *NM* - 24/05/2010 10:59:23 PM 261 Views
No one wants to resume the Korean War. - 24/05/2010 11:27:12 PM 734 Views
China does. - 25/05/2010 12:29:11 AM 673 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 12:54:49 AM 699 Views
Well, it would be more accurate to say they want a conflict, yes. - 25/05/2010 01:15:23 AM 698 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 01:24:17 AM 681 Views
North Korea is not acting suicidal? Are you kidding? - 25/05/2010 02:41:29 AM 652 Views
The internal political dynamic in North Korea is such that they constantly need a crisis. - 25/05/2010 03:03:59 AM 671 Views
You are missing the main point. - 25/05/2010 03:36:37 AM 714 Views
I'm not saying it's nothing new. - 25/05/2010 03:57:40 AM 689 Views
Your response highlights the ultimate problem: the crisis will have to keep getting bigger. - 25/05/2010 07:44:19 PM 628 Views
Yes, that is the danger. - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM 770 Views
Fair enough. I misunderstood your position before. - 26/05/2010 12:31:52 AM 662 Views

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