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Yes, that is the danger. Libby Send a noteboard - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM
The biggest question is really what does North Korea see as crossing the Rubicon. I do believe there some obvious red lines that even North Korea won't cross, initially firing artillery or missiles at Seoul or crossing the DMZ toward the south - because those actions will blatantly lead to all out conflict.

A manufactured crisis only remains a crisis for a while; the longer the situation drags on the closer it comes to becoming just a new status quo. If the North must continually increase the pressure just to manufacture a "new" crisis, at some point it will reach a point where the regime must go to war or collapse.


That's true, although I don't feel the regime has any fear of collapse as long as they have guaranteed aid coming from China. And China won't cut off aid because of fear the regime would collapse.

Additionally, the closer each "crisis" comes to actual war, the greater the chance of accidentally starting a full war - someone shoots a gun, artillery is fired in response, leading to return fire, then a natural escalation...


That's why I feel it's important that we need to look at this situation calmly and plan our moves accordingly. As I said, this can easily slip from one's control. I do feel all regimes, no matter how bat-shit crazy and eccentric, have a strong self-preservation streak. After all, if they didn't care about their survival, they wouldn't last very long.
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Oh, by the way...has anyone noticed how close the Korean peninsula is to war? - 24/05/2010 02:04:12 PM 1159 Views
I was wondering when something would be posted about this - 24/05/2010 02:49:54 PM 849 Views
haha. I love that mental image - 24/05/2010 02:51:53 PM 770 Views
But does North Korea really listen to China that much anymore? - 24/05/2010 02:55:04 PM 796 Views
that might well be a good point - 24/05/2010 03:20:32 PM 763 Views
Very interesting point. That is a wild card. *NM* - 24/05/2010 03:27:53 PM 275 Views
The explaination I have heard... - 24/05/2010 09:05:40 PM 801 Views
I don't know... - 24/05/2010 09:49:25 PM 715 Views
No, because China doesn't want us in the region. - 25/05/2010 12:20:47 AM 777 Views
Um, wasn't that pretty much always understood? - 25/05/2010 12:08:12 AM 716 Views
yah, it doesn't look to be a good situation - 24/05/2010 02:50:08 PM 766 Views
If there were a war with North Korea the US has the resources to deal with it. - 24/05/2010 02:56:39 PM 784 Views
mm. well I don't much like that either, to be honest. - 24/05/2010 03:00:29 PM 771 Views
Wikipedia is your friend. - 24/05/2010 03:08:33 PM 955 Views
ah mk. Thanks!! - 24/05/2010 04:39:49 PM 729 Views
Still scary and you know that using those would escalate everything. - 24/05/2010 03:26:12 PM 731 Views
Korea is directly in our sphere of influence - 24/05/2010 03:37:18 PM 687 Views
I meant "we" in a personal sense, not a national sense. - 24/05/2010 05:36:40 PM 839 Views
In a personal sense, we could hijack a nuclear silo and shoot an ICBM at Pyongyang. - 24/05/2010 05:50:52 PM 665 Views
Oh yuck - there are far better ways. - 24/05/2010 06:01:44 PM 707 Views
yah... - 24/05/2010 06:27:37 PM 743 Views
Re: yah... - 24/05/2010 06:34:13 PM 725 Views
That would totally blow my cover of being a nerdy little grandma. - 24/05/2010 09:37:28 PM 691 Views
I don't think the US could, if China decided to get involved - 24/05/2010 08:45:23 PM 668 Views
A part of me says just get it over with - 24/05/2010 03:21:06 PM 678 Views
I agree that if war is inevitable, it is much better to start it at a time of our choosing. - 24/05/2010 03:48:36 PM 831 Views
I agree - 24/05/2010 04:17:19 PM 845 Views
Pretty much agree with all of that. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:17:27 PM 309 Views
I'm trying not to. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:25:06 PM 278 Views
This. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:28:20 PM 304 Views
I understand - 24/05/2010 06:00:09 PM 679 Views
Yes - 24/05/2010 06:05:25 PM 688 Views
i agree - 24/05/2010 06:28:37 PM 708 Views
This has disaster written all over it *NM* - 24/05/2010 08:39:37 PM 292 Views
Technically, weren't we always? - 24/05/2010 08:51:29 PM 694 Views
Exactly. - 25/05/2010 12:07:32 AM 742 Views
I try to block it out with thought's of a puppet singing "I'm So Ronery". *NM* - 24/05/2010 10:59:23 PM 291 Views
No one wants to resume the Korean War. - 24/05/2010 11:27:12 PM 805 Views
China does. - 25/05/2010 12:29:11 AM 761 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 12:54:49 AM 776 Views
Well, it would be more accurate to say they want a conflict, yes. - 25/05/2010 01:15:23 AM 771 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 01:24:17 AM 748 Views
North Korea is not acting suicidal? Are you kidding? - 25/05/2010 02:41:29 AM 723 Views
The internal political dynamic in North Korea is such that they constantly need a crisis. - 25/05/2010 03:03:59 AM 740 Views
You are missing the main point. - 25/05/2010 03:36:37 AM 784 Views
I'm not saying it's nothing new. - 25/05/2010 03:57:40 AM 751 Views
Your response highlights the ultimate problem: the crisis will have to keep getting bigger. - 25/05/2010 07:44:19 PM 696 Views
Yes, that is the danger. - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM 838 Views
Fair enough. I misunderstood your position before. - 26/05/2010 12:31:52 AM 730 Views

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