They went the distance at the last Euro Championship and that might have broken the pattern, we'll see. Torres isn't in the best of shapes and they were off to a bad start, but that could play in their favour as they've been forced to kick into a higher gear. And Villa seems to be in the form of his life. Spain may or may not get there - I'm really hoping that we'll see a Spain-Argentina semifinal and that whoever wins that takes the tournament - but they are undeniably among the three biggest favourites. And not even the least of the three.

As for Portugal, I'm not a big fan either, but saying they've never done anything seems rather harsh. They were a contender at Euro 2000 and 2008, finalist in Euro 2004 (even if that tournament was a total travesty and I really disliked both teams in the final), and semifinalist at the last World Cup (which was also a travesty, with rather a lot of undeserving teams in the semis and the final, but I'm going to guess you'll disagree with me on that ).

There's no intimidation factor, no, but judging by the CONMEBOL qualification campaign, Brazil has the edge. That may not mean that much in the final of a World Cup, but if we get Argentina-Brazil in the final (funny that we've never had that final, incidentally... in fact, those teams haven't played each other too often in the World Cup that I'm aware of), I'm not sure Argentina would have the biggest chance to win. And if so, not by much.

Edit: Evidently I fail at World Cup history - rather a lot of encounters between them in the seventies and eighties, in fact.