I obviously must have missed where you justified the use of the law of large numbers.
heartbreak Send a noteboard - 05/10/2012 04:43:51 PM
Could you quote the pertinent section? It would save us some time.
Romney CRUSHES Obama in First Debate - Leads Swing States by 4%
- 04/10/2012 05:32:32 AM
1043 Views
So, is that from a "corrected", "non-skewed" poll? 
- 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
547 Views
- 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
547 Views
Wow, you suck at Googling! 
- 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
743 Views
- 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
743 Views
Which poll at your link shows anything but Obama leading every swing state but NC?
- 04/10/2012 05:41:31 PM
658 Views
No, you just apparently suck at math
- 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
515 Views
- 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
515 Views
I know you are sad, but your Messiah may still win.....you never know!
- 04/10/2012 07:23:16 PM
579 Views
your mental instability and misperception of reality are worrisome -- please seek professional help
- 04/10/2012 07:54:45 PM
677 Views
*NM*
I'm more of a syndicalist, sorry
- 04/10/2012 08:43:48 PM
605 Views
Ooh, would you mind talking more about syndicalism?
- 04/10/2012 11:28:40 PM
518 Views
Sure, but I'm no doctrainaire on this
- 05/10/2012 01:13:19 AM
675 Views
Thank you! 
Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
486 Views
Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
486 Views
It really should be mandatory for everyone to read factcheck.org after every debate. *NM*
- 04/10/2012 09:38:24 AM
332 Views
Seriously. The number of times I squinted and thought, "Wait, that doesn't sound quite right"
- 04/10/2012 02:01:12 PM
638 Views
Romney addressed that head-on
- 04/10/2012 02:13:44 PM
530 Views
Yeah, but it ain't, and it was Obamas job to make that unnecessary.
- 04/10/2012 03:26:50 PM
643 Views
Obama - Lost and Bewildered without Teleprompter.....funny stuff!
- 04/10/2012 01:10:40 PM
542 Views
Which part of Romneys socialism was your favorite?
- 04/10/2012 03:38:17 PM
666 Views
I keep thinking that was what killed Obama.
- 04/10/2012 04:45:02 PM
582 Views
I suspected that was a lot of it, yeah, but he should have been prepared for the Etch-a-Sketch.
- 04/10/2012 05:25:35 PM
543 Views
living in a bubble where everyone agreed on those things and is what killed him
- 04/10/2012 05:59:29 PM
618 Views
why do you silly lefites keep acting like Romney is the first guy to move to the center?
- 04/10/2012 05:46:13 PM
772 Views
The primary was six months ago, and endorsing every aspect of limited welfare states is not centrist
- 04/10/2012 06:00:56 PM
602 Views
can you support that insane argument? *NM*
- 05/10/2012 01:10:11 PM
215 Views
Romney explicitly endorsed regulations, soaking the rich, entitlements and public education funding.
- 05/10/2012 02:25:49 PM
621 Views
you could have just said no
- 05/10/2012 05:25:44 PM
577 Views
Since when was Romney (or any Republican since TRs day) for more regulation or hiring more teachers?
- 06/10/2012 01:33:53 PM
634 Views
Well Bush was pushing for more banking regulations but Barney Franks blocked him
- 07/10/2012 03:52:50 PM
739 Views
A2000, your message should read:
- 04/10/2012 03:42:18 PM
580 Views
I consider the margin of error implied.
- 04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM
497 Views
Unfortunately statistics does not support that.
- 04/10/2012 06:11:56 PM
596 Views
Of course they do; the law of averages supports that.
- 04/10/2012 06:46:27 PM
629 Views
Poll numbers aren't random so even if the law of averages could be applied to a small data set...
- 04/10/2012 07:05:49 PM
511 Views
If not random, they are indicative (if not necessary conclusive,) and the data set is large enough.
- 04/10/2012 08:55:24 PM
505 Views
Let me rephrase: the law of averages is a belief. You are basing your conclusion on a belief.
- 04/10/2012 09:23:50 PM
580 Views
I have never used the Law of Averages to mean anything except the (proven) Law of Large Numbers.
- 05/10/2012 09:22:56 AM
688 Views
I'm pretty sure that 136 is not a large number. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 12:20:35 PM
356 Views
That is a matter of opinion, but for a binary event I think it huge.
- 05/10/2012 12:42:24 PM
608 Views
Without additional data, the default would be that the coin is fair. Since...
- 05/10/2012 05:20:21 PM
544 Views
After 136 trials the DEFAULT assumption no longer applies in the face of ample hard data.
- 06/10/2012 04:02:51 PM
652 Views
I did the same experiment I suggested for you.
- 06/10/2012 04:45:28 PM
522 Views
Still not a 3:1 ratio.
- 06/10/2012 06:09:00 PM
746 Views
Let me try and put it a slightly different way.
- 06/10/2012 08:12:35 PM
618 Views
The more lopsided/large the trial, the more LIKELY the coin is unfair;weight is the only way to KNOW
- 07/10/2012 12:09:27 PM
741 Views
You're completely missing the point.
- 07/10/2012 03:34:29 PM
619 Views
But 100 polls isn't analogous to 100 coin flips. Each of thousands of individuals is a coin flip.
- 07/10/2012 11:05:13 PM
598 Views
that is why you can't base things on just one poll
- 05/10/2012 01:27:18 AM
689 Views
You are making the same mistake Joel is making. You should read our discussion. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 01:50:01 AM
415 Views
there is a difference between statistical errors and model or method errors
- 05/10/2012 03:28:38 AM
571 Views
There is a difference between the law of averages and the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 04:45:00 AM
766 Views
you left out part of that wiki quote you pasted
- 05/10/2012 05:30:52 AM
705 Views
You still haven't justified the application of the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 12:24:51 PM
472 Views
I suggest you take some time to understand what I wrote and get back to me
- 05/10/2012 01:12:03 PM
499 Views
I obviously must have missed where you justified the use of the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 04:43:51 PM
553 Views
WellI did that twice and I am waiting for you to refute what I said *NM*
- 05/10/2012 05:28:18 PM
397 Views
Since you are unwilling to be helpful...
- 05/10/2012 05:50:47 PM
659 Views
The law is a trend throughout, not a pass/fail based on if the number of polls is "large enough"
- 06/10/2012 03:26:33 PM
634 Views
I'm not saying that the law of large numbers doesn't make the margin of error less when...
- 06/10/2012 04:55:16 PM
527 Views
decades of polling history say you are wrong
- 07/10/2012 04:08:45 PM
816 Views
Stating that, "decades of polling history say you are wrong" doesn't prove your point.
- 07/10/2012 05:35:57 PM
502 Views
you are either ignoring what I am saying or you are mentally unable to understand it so I am done
- 07/10/2012 06:11:22 PM
457 Views
As you wish. I'm starting to get the same feeling from you as well. So whatever. But before you go..
- 07/10/2012 07:20:17 PM
610 Views
can wait for Ryan vs Bozo the VP
- 04/10/2012 06:07:30 PM
462 Views
If Biden performs as expected...
- 04/10/2012 07:46:16 PM
614 Views
your take on obama's foreign policy debate performance does not seem like reality
- 04/10/2012 08:00:51 PM
541 Views
I never would have thought Romney could lay such a beatdown on Obama as I saw last night.
- 04/10/2012 08:55:46 PM
623 Views
we saw the anti-romney last night. i doubt obama is going to be so flat-footed against him next time
- 04/10/2012 10:35:21 PM
545 Views
by that you mean he isn't the Romney the left tried to pretend he was and now they are mad
- 05/10/2012 12:53:00 AM
650 Views
right.... that whole 47% thing is a totally moderate position for a politician to take... 
*NM*
- 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
323 Views
*NM*
- 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
323 Views
about as moderate as thinking the government didn't help New Orleans because it has a lot of blacks
- 05/10/2012 04:51:15 AM
574 Views
if you only have obama's comments from LAST election in 2008 then you have nothing
- 05/10/2012 03:38:07 PM
504 Views
who would you consider our number one geopolitical foe?
- 04/10/2012 10:12:53 PM
624 Views
China is far more dangerous. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 07:23:06 AM
269 Views
Whoa, was not expecting that point of agreement.
- 05/10/2012 12:35:35 PM
654 Views
they may be more dangerous but that doesn't that doesn't automatically make them first
- 05/10/2012 01:09:30 PM
626 Views
name two foreign policy decisions russia has blocked since 2008 *NM*
- 05/10/2012 03:41:15 PM
300 Views
It's generally both of them, really, isn't it?
- 05/10/2012 10:03:39 PM
504 Views
Agreed; much of it is that both China and Russia profit handsomely from nuclear proliferation.
- 06/10/2012 01:55:21 PM
629 Views
They both block us in the Middle East but Russia blocks us in Europe o a much larger degree
- 07/10/2012 04:22:40 PM
556 Views
WOW - Even the liberal CNN Poll confirms Romney's crushing victory.
- 04/10/2012 07:27:28 PM
658 Views
I watched it now. A few thoughts (albeit rather late):
- 05/10/2012 09:46:02 PM
679 Views
you are missing a key point
- 07/10/2012 04:34:17 PM
590 Views
Am I missing that point? I thought I said clearly enough that I thought Romney was better. *NM*
- 07/10/2012 08:47:42 PM
379 Views