One of my trials came out 69% heads. What I am saying is that this is equivalent to Obama or Romney winning 69 polls out of 100. It is not indicative that the population is bias one way or the other. It still could be random.
Our scenario here, is that we have one trial of 136 polls. Which would be equivalent to 136 coin tosses. You saw a 60% and I saw a 69% so we know that even in a random situation the coin can appear to be biased in a single trial.
The only way to alleviate this problem is by having significantly more coin flips in the trial. As you demonstrated when you added all 500 coin flips together.
Our scenario here, is that we have one trial of 136 polls. Which would be equivalent to 136 coin tosses. You saw a 60% and I saw a 69% so we know that even in a random situation the coin can appear to be biased in a single trial.
The only way to alleviate this problem is by having significantly more coin flips in the trial. As you demonstrated when you added all 500 coin flips together.
Romney CRUSHES Obama in First Debate - Leads Swing States by 4%
- 04/10/2012 05:32:32 AM
1043 Views
So, is that from a "corrected", "non-skewed" poll? 
- 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
547 Views
- 04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
547 Views
Wow, you suck at Googling! 
- 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
743 Views
- 04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
743 Views
Which poll at your link shows anything but Obama leading every swing state but NC?
- 04/10/2012 05:41:31 PM
658 Views
No, you just apparently suck at math
- 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
515 Views
- 04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
515 Views
I know you are sad, but your Messiah may still win.....you never know!
- 04/10/2012 07:23:16 PM
579 Views
your mental instability and misperception of reality are worrisome -- please seek professional help
- 04/10/2012 07:54:45 PM
677 Views
*NM*
I'm more of a syndicalist, sorry
- 04/10/2012 08:43:48 PM
605 Views
Ooh, would you mind talking more about syndicalism?
- 04/10/2012 11:28:40 PM
518 Views
Sure, but I'm no doctrainaire on this
- 05/10/2012 01:13:19 AM
675 Views
Thank you! 
Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
486 Views
Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
486 Views
It really should be mandatory for everyone to read factcheck.org after every debate. *NM*
- 04/10/2012 09:38:24 AM
332 Views
Seriously. The number of times I squinted and thought, "Wait, that doesn't sound quite right"
- 04/10/2012 02:01:12 PM
638 Views
Romney addressed that head-on
- 04/10/2012 02:13:44 PM
530 Views
Yeah, but it ain't, and it was Obamas job to make that unnecessary.
- 04/10/2012 03:26:50 PM
643 Views
Obama - Lost and Bewildered without Teleprompter.....funny stuff!
- 04/10/2012 01:10:40 PM
542 Views
Which part of Romneys socialism was your favorite?
- 04/10/2012 03:38:17 PM
666 Views
I keep thinking that was what killed Obama.
- 04/10/2012 04:45:02 PM
582 Views
I suspected that was a lot of it, yeah, but he should have been prepared for the Etch-a-Sketch.
- 04/10/2012 05:25:35 PM
543 Views
living in a bubble where everyone agreed on those things and is what killed him
- 04/10/2012 05:59:29 PM
618 Views
why do you silly lefites keep acting like Romney is the first guy to move to the center?
- 04/10/2012 05:46:13 PM
772 Views
The primary was six months ago, and endorsing every aspect of limited welfare states is not centrist
- 04/10/2012 06:00:56 PM
602 Views
can you support that insane argument? *NM*
- 05/10/2012 01:10:11 PM
215 Views
Romney explicitly endorsed regulations, soaking the rich, entitlements and public education funding.
- 05/10/2012 02:25:49 PM
621 Views
you could have just said no
- 05/10/2012 05:25:44 PM
577 Views
Since when was Romney (or any Republican since TRs day) for more regulation or hiring more teachers?
- 06/10/2012 01:33:53 PM
634 Views
Well Bush was pushing for more banking regulations but Barney Franks blocked him
- 07/10/2012 03:52:50 PM
739 Views
A2000, your message should read:
- 04/10/2012 03:42:18 PM
580 Views
I consider the margin of error implied.
- 04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM
497 Views
Unfortunately statistics does not support that.
- 04/10/2012 06:11:56 PM
596 Views
Of course they do; the law of averages supports that.
- 04/10/2012 06:46:27 PM
629 Views
Poll numbers aren't random so even if the law of averages could be applied to a small data set...
- 04/10/2012 07:05:49 PM
511 Views
If not random, they are indicative (if not necessary conclusive,) and the data set is large enough.
- 04/10/2012 08:55:24 PM
505 Views
Let me rephrase: the law of averages is a belief. You are basing your conclusion on a belief.
- 04/10/2012 09:23:50 PM
580 Views
I have never used the Law of Averages to mean anything except the (proven) Law of Large Numbers.
- 05/10/2012 09:22:56 AM
688 Views
I'm pretty sure that 136 is not a large number. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 12:20:35 PM
356 Views
That is a matter of opinion, but for a binary event I think it huge.
- 05/10/2012 12:42:24 PM
608 Views
Without additional data, the default would be that the coin is fair. Since...
- 05/10/2012 05:20:21 PM
544 Views
After 136 trials the DEFAULT assumption no longer applies in the face of ample hard data.
- 06/10/2012 04:02:51 PM
652 Views
I did the same experiment I suggested for you.
- 06/10/2012 04:45:28 PM
522 Views
Still not a 3:1 ratio.
- 06/10/2012 06:09:00 PM
746 Views
Let me try and put it a slightly different way.
- 06/10/2012 08:12:35 PM
618 Views
The more lopsided/large the trial, the more LIKELY the coin is unfair;weight is the only way to KNOW
- 07/10/2012 12:09:27 PM
741 Views
You're completely missing the point.
- 07/10/2012 03:34:29 PM
619 Views
But 100 polls isn't analogous to 100 coin flips. Each of thousands of individuals is a coin flip.
- 07/10/2012 11:05:13 PM
598 Views
that is why you can't base things on just one poll
- 05/10/2012 01:27:18 AM
689 Views
You are making the same mistake Joel is making. You should read our discussion. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 01:50:01 AM
415 Views
there is a difference between statistical errors and model or method errors
- 05/10/2012 03:28:38 AM
571 Views
There is a difference between the law of averages and the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 04:45:00 AM
766 Views
you left out part of that wiki quote you pasted
- 05/10/2012 05:30:52 AM
705 Views
You still haven't justified the application of the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 12:24:51 PM
472 Views
I suggest you take some time to understand what I wrote and get back to me
- 05/10/2012 01:12:03 PM
499 Views
I obviously must have missed where you justified the use of the law of large numbers.
- 05/10/2012 04:43:51 PM
552 Views
WellI did that twice and I am waiting for you to refute what I said *NM*
- 05/10/2012 05:28:18 PM
397 Views
Since you are unwilling to be helpful...
- 05/10/2012 05:50:47 PM
659 Views
The law is a trend throughout, not a pass/fail based on if the number of polls is "large enough"
- 06/10/2012 03:26:33 PM
634 Views
I'm not saying that the law of large numbers doesn't make the margin of error less when...
- 06/10/2012 04:55:16 PM
527 Views
decades of polling history say you are wrong
- 07/10/2012 04:08:45 PM
816 Views
Stating that, "decades of polling history say you are wrong" doesn't prove your point.
- 07/10/2012 05:35:57 PM
502 Views
you are either ignoring what I am saying or you are mentally unable to understand it so I am done
- 07/10/2012 06:11:22 PM
457 Views
As you wish. I'm starting to get the same feeling from you as well. So whatever. But before you go..
- 07/10/2012 07:20:17 PM
609 Views
can wait for Ryan vs Bozo the VP
- 04/10/2012 06:07:30 PM
462 Views
If Biden performs as expected...
- 04/10/2012 07:46:16 PM
614 Views
your take on obama's foreign policy debate performance does not seem like reality
- 04/10/2012 08:00:51 PM
541 Views
I never would have thought Romney could lay such a beatdown on Obama as I saw last night.
- 04/10/2012 08:55:46 PM
623 Views
we saw the anti-romney last night. i doubt obama is going to be so flat-footed against him next time
- 04/10/2012 10:35:21 PM
545 Views
by that you mean he isn't the Romney the left tried to pretend he was and now they are mad
- 05/10/2012 12:53:00 AM
650 Views
right.... that whole 47% thing is a totally moderate position for a politician to take... 
*NM*
- 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
323 Views
*NM*
- 05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
323 Views
about as moderate as thinking the government didn't help New Orleans because it has a lot of blacks
- 05/10/2012 04:51:15 AM
574 Views
if you only have obama's comments from LAST election in 2008 then you have nothing
- 05/10/2012 03:38:07 PM
504 Views
who would you consider our number one geopolitical foe?
- 04/10/2012 10:12:53 PM
624 Views
China is far more dangerous. *NM*
- 05/10/2012 07:23:06 AM
269 Views
Whoa, was not expecting that point of agreement.
- 05/10/2012 12:35:35 PM
654 Views
they may be more dangerous but that doesn't that doesn't automatically make them first
- 05/10/2012 01:09:30 PM
626 Views
name two foreign policy decisions russia has blocked since 2008 *NM*
- 05/10/2012 03:41:15 PM
300 Views
It's generally both of them, really, isn't it?
- 05/10/2012 10:03:39 PM
504 Views
Agreed; much of it is that both China and Russia profit handsomely from nuclear proliferation.
- 06/10/2012 01:55:21 PM
629 Views
They both block us in the Middle East but Russia blocks us in Europe o a much larger degree
- 07/10/2012 04:22:40 PM
556 Views
WOW - Even the liberal CNN Poll confirms Romney's crushing victory.
- 04/10/2012 07:27:28 PM
658 Views
I watched it now. A few thoughts (albeit rather late):
- 05/10/2012 09:46:02 PM
679 Views
you are missing a key point
- 07/10/2012 04:34:17 PM
590 Views
Am I missing that point? I thought I said clearly enough that I thought Romney was better. *NM*
- 07/10/2012 08:47:42 PM
379 Views