As you wish. I'm starting to get the same feeling from you as well. So whatever. But before you go..
heartbreak Send a noteboard - 07/10/2012 07:20:17 PM
Polls are 100%
I typically don't like to bring personal judgments in but maybe you just need to proof read or explain your point of view better. I don't know.
Romney CRUSHES Obama in First Debate - Leads Swing States by 4%
04/10/2012 05:32:32 AM
- 1043 Views
So, is that from a "corrected", "non-skewed" poll?
04/10/2012 05:51:58 AM
- 547 Views
Wow, you suck at Googling!
04/10/2012 01:14:22 PM
- 743 Views
Which poll at your link shows anything but Obama leading every swing state but NC?
04/10/2012 05:41:31 PM
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No, you just apparently suck at math
04/10/2012 07:17:20 PM
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I know you are sad, but your Messiah may still win.....you never know!
04/10/2012 07:23:16 PM
- 579 Views
your mental instability and misperception of reality are worrisome -- please seek professional help
04/10/2012 07:54:45 PM
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I'm more of a syndicalist, sorry
04/10/2012 08:43:48 PM
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Ooh, would you mind talking more about syndicalism?
04/10/2012 11:28:40 PM
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Sure, but I'm no doctrainaire on this
05/10/2012 01:13:19 AM
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Thank you! Reading the wikipedia entry was making my eyes glaze over. But I can try again now. *NM*
05/10/2012 02:14:50 PM
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It really should be mandatory for everyone to read factcheck.org after every debate. *NM*
04/10/2012 09:38:24 AM
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Seriously. The number of times I squinted and thought, "Wait, that doesn't sound quite right"
04/10/2012 02:01:12 PM
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Romney addressed that head-on
04/10/2012 02:13:44 PM
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Yeah, but it ain't, and it was Obamas job to make that unnecessary.
04/10/2012 03:26:50 PM
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Obama - Lost and Bewildered without Teleprompter.....funny stuff!
04/10/2012 01:10:40 PM
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Which part of Romneys socialism was your favorite?
04/10/2012 03:38:17 PM
- 666 Views
I keep thinking that was what killed Obama.
04/10/2012 04:45:02 PM
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I suspected that was a lot of it, yeah, but he should have been prepared for the Etch-a-Sketch.
04/10/2012 05:25:35 PM
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living in a bubble where everyone agreed on those things and is what killed him
04/10/2012 05:59:29 PM
- 618 Views
why do you silly lefites keep acting like Romney is the first guy to move to the center?
04/10/2012 05:46:13 PM
- 772 Views
The primary was six months ago, and endorsing every aspect of limited welfare states is not centrist
04/10/2012 06:00:56 PM
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can you support that insane argument? *NM*
05/10/2012 01:10:11 PM
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Romney explicitly endorsed regulations, soaking the rich, entitlements and public education funding.
05/10/2012 02:25:49 PM
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you could have just said no
05/10/2012 05:25:44 PM
- 577 Views
Since when was Romney (or any Republican since TRs day) for more regulation or hiring more teachers?
06/10/2012 01:33:53 PM
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Well Bush was pushing for more banking regulations but Barney Franks blocked him
07/10/2012 03:52:50 PM
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A2000, your message should read:
04/10/2012 03:42:18 PM
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I consider the margin of error implied.
04/10/2012 05:49:50 PM
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Unfortunately statistics does not support that.
04/10/2012 06:11:56 PM
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Of course they do; the law of averages supports that.
04/10/2012 06:46:27 PM
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Poll numbers aren't random so even if the law of averages could be applied to a small data set...
04/10/2012 07:05:49 PM
- 511 Views
If not random, they are indicative (if not necessary conclusive,) and the data set is large enough.
04/10/2012 08:55:24 PM
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Let me rephrase: the law of averages is a belief. You are basing your conclusion on a belief.
04/10/2012 09:23:50 PM
- 580 Views
I have never used the Law of Averages to mean anything except the (proven) Law of Large Numbers.
05/10/2012 09:22:56 AM
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I'm pretty sure that 136 is not a large number. *NM*
05/10/2012 12:20:35 PM
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That is a matter of opinion, but for a binary event I think it huge.
05/10/2012 12:42:24 PM
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Without additional data, the default would be that the coin is fair. Since...
05/10/2012 05:20:21 PM
- 544 Views
After 136 trials the DEFAULT assumption no longer applies in the face of ample hard data.
06/10/2012 04:02:51 PM
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I did the same experiment I suggested for you.
06/10/2012 04:45:28 PM
- 522 Views
Still not a 3:1 ratio.
06/10/2012 06:09:00 PM
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Let me try and put it a slightly different way.
06/10/2012 08:12:35 PM
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The more lopsided/large the trial, the more LIKELY the coin is unfair;weight is the only way to KNOW
07/10/2012 12:09:27 PM
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You're completely missing the point.
07/10/2012 03:34:29 PM
- 619 Views
But 100 polls isn't analogous to 100 coin flips. Each of thousands of individuals is a coin flip.
07/10/2012 11:05:13 PM
- 598 Views
that is why you can't base things on just one poll
05/10/2012 01:27:18 AM
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You are making the same mistake Joel is making. You should read our discussion. *NM*
05/10/2012 01:50:01 AM
- 415 Views
there is a difference between statistical errors and model or method errors
05/10/2012 03:28:38 AM
- 571 Views
There is a difference between the law of averages and the law of large numbers.
05/10/2012 04:45:00 AM
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you left out part of that wiki quote you pasted
05/10/2012 05:30:52 AM
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You still haven't justified the application of the law of large numbers.
05/10/2012 12:24:51 PM
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I suggest you take some time to understand what I wrote and get back to me
05/10/2012 01:12:03 PM
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I obviously must have missed where you justified the use of the law of large numbers.
05/10/2012 04:43:51 PM
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WellI did that twice and I am waiting for you to refute what I said *NM*
05/10/2012 05:28:18 PM
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Since you are unwilling to be helpful...
05/10/2012 05:50:47 PM
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The law is a trend throughout, not a pass/fail based on if the number of polls is "large enough"
06/10/2012 03:26:33 PM
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I'm not saying that the law of large numbers doesn't make the margin of error less when...
06/10/2012 04:55:16 PM
- 527 Views
decades of polling history say you are wrong
07/10/2012 04:08:45 PM
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Stating that, "decades of polling history say you are wrong" doesn't prove your point.
07/10/2012 05:35:57 PM
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you are either ignoring what I am saying or you are mentally unable to understand it so I am done
07/10/2012 06:11:22 PM
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As you wish. I'm starting to get the same feeling from you as well. So whatever. But before you go..
07/10/2012 07:20:17 PM
- 610 Views
can wait for Ryan vs Bozo the VP
04/10/2012 06:07:30 PM
- 462 Views
If Biden performs as expected...
04/10/2012 07:46:16 PM
- 614 Views
your take on obama's foreign policy debate performance does not seem like reality
04/10/2012 08:00:51 PM
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I never would have thought Romney could lay such a beatdown on Obama as I saw last night.
04/10/2012 08:55:46 PM
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we saw the anti-romney last night. i doubt obama is going to be so flat-footed against him next time
04/10/2012 10:35:21 PM
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by that you mean he isn't the Romney the left tried to pretend he was and now they are mad
05/10/2012 12:53:00 AM
- 650 Views
right.... that whole 47% thing is a totally moderate position for a politician to take... *NM*
05/10/2012 04:32:25 AM
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about as moderate as thinking the government didn't help New Orleans because it has a lot of blacks
05/10/2012 04:51:15 AM
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if you only have obama's comments from LAST election in 2008 then you have nothing
05/10/2012 03:38:07 PM
- 504 Views
who would you consider our number one geopolitical foe?
04/10/2012 10:12:53 PM
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China is far more dangerous. *NM*
05/10/2012 07:23:06 AM
- 269 Views
Whoa, was not expecting that point of agreement.
05/10/2012 12:35:35 PM
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they may be more dangerous but that doesn't that doesn't automatically make them first
05/10/2012 01:09:30 PM
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name two foreign policy decisions russia has blocked since 2008 *NM*
05/10/2012 03:41:15 PM
- 300 Views
It's generally both of them, really, isn't it?
05/10/2012 10:03:39 PM
- 504 Views
Agreed; much of it is that both China and Russia profit handsomely from nuclear proliferation.
06/10/2012 01:55:21 PM
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They both block us in the Middle East but Russia blocks us in Europe o a much larger degree
07/10/2012 04:22:40 PM
- 556 Views
WOW - Even the liberal CNN Poll confirms Romney's crushing victory.
04/10/2012 07:27:28 PM
- 658 Views
I watched it now. A few thoughts (albeit rather late):
05/10/2012 09:46:02 PM
- 679 Views
you are missing a key point
07/10/2012 04:34:17 PM
- 590 Views
Am I missing that point? I thought I said clearly enough that I thought Romney was better. *NM*
07/10/2012 08:47:42 PM
- 379 Views