NATO, the EU, all of them seem out of real, usable leverage to stop Putin in that theater, and the little they have none seems to have the courage to use. Not sure what Obama can do in this context that wouldn't repeat his massive blunder of drawing a red line not to cross, when it's fairly clear the US allies are like Obama, mostly talk and very little real desire to pay the price of acting. Part of me say we should be willing to act, part of me fear what might come out of it, and part of me believes this round is again a foregone Putin victory anyway.

Holland and Obama couldn't even manage not to let Putin win a huge diplomatic victory over Syria, their lame efforts backfired and no doubt further convinced Putin he can stand his ground again, with Chinese backing, at not much more cost. The world let him have unhindered his propaganda Olympics that left an aftertaste of Berlin '36 without much of a fuss, they sure won't make him back down in his own backyard to prevent any form of Western intervention there, a precedent he fears and he's gonna stand his ground to not let happen, probably ready to withstand quite an escalation.

Sadly, the truth is probably that Putin's readier to let things escalate than the West is willing to do to force his hand and give his regime a lesson it more and more needs. If Putin decides to go in militarily, and it's likely already started (any one doubts the commandos at the parliament aren't barely disguised Russian elites troops?) and the official sending of Russian troops by the Kremlin to "secure" Crimea "temporarily" is a matter of days away at most, the West's weak answer will be pathetic, all the more since China's already in the diplomatic mêlée slamming the West's support of "putschists" and ready for an encore of its role backing Russia in the Syrian crisis.

I fear very much Putin's ready to call what looks dangerously like a new Western bluff, this time on the Ukraine question.

From all the hints in the last days, I'd bet Putin will soberly use as an excuse the protection of Russian ethnic populations in Crimea, a painful reminder of, notably, good Adolf's strategy for the Sudetenland, which the West will denounce but in the end will probably let pass (oh, we'll probably have summits on the Crimean question for years, we're good at that).

Not that I fear we're on the eve of WWIII - not quite - but I very much fear we're up for another painful to watch episode of shaming weakness and pathetic diplomacy on the part of the Western democracies. Obama is far from stellar in foreign affairs, to say the least, but he's surrounded by European, Canadian etc. leaders who aren't any better.

We better get used to a more and more repellent neo-Czarist Russia, with parts of its population expressing openly pretty damn frightening ideas - and a further cooling down of Western/Russian-Chinese relations.

Edit: It looks like I took too long to finish writing that post: (CNN)
"Russian lawmakers OK use of military force in Ukraine

Unanimous vote in upper house

Russian President Vladimir Putin sought the approval, saying the lives of Russian citizens and Russian military personnel are threatened in Crimea. "

I wonder what lame ass Hollywoodian reference John Kerry will use this time. Independence Day? The Avengers? Too bad for him it's a bitch and not a raccoon the Russians had sent in space...