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he's a solid third from what i've seen. still has a long way to go, though moondog Send a noteboard - 03/12/2015 08:04:41 PM

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View original postbut i'll concede that things may change quickly if and only if Iowa and New Hampshire change the current structure in any way. the only way Rubio gets the nomination is if he can convince enough delegates to switch to him at the convention, and i'm not seeing anything that says he can. he is the only credible alternative to Trump, and he's got a lot more ground to cover between now and then. but as i keep saying, the best any of the candidates can hope for is roughly 1/3 of the Electoral College, because none of them can possibly compete in the general election.

Quinnipiac's poll of today has Trump at 27, Rubio at 17 and Carson at 16. Not only does Rubio have a shot, it's increasingly looking like Trump or him, and if they manage to narrow things down to two fast enough, I think we all agree the establishment candidate will take it in the end. For all that Trump has been leading for months and keeps defying the expectations of his impending fall, I think the fundamental strategic point is the same it always was: he's not going to win unless the establishment and the evangelicals remain deeply split all the way to the convention.

Trump or Carson can't compete in the general election. Bush, Christie or Kasich could compete, but they don't look like they can make it there. Rubio could do both - I would still expect Clinton to win in the end, but he'd make it close and all sorts of things could give him the edge. In any case, a close race in the presidential means no Senate majority for the Dems, no House, and if they don't take them in 2016, they won't in 2018 either.


not one candidate can compete in the general election. the dems only hope for taking back the Senate is this year, otherwise they will not get another chance until 2020. thanks to gerrymandering, the dems have zero chance to pick up seats in the house until 2020, and we'll probably have yet another federal election in which they win more votes than republicans but republicans increase their seats.

the biggest problem rubio has -- besides his absenteeism from his current job -- is that he has a history of siding with his party on substantial issues, and most of those issues are detrimental to a lot of the people who will be voting next year. any of the republican candidates is guaranteed at least 110 electoral votes, because those are pretty much guaranteed to the republicans no matter who the candidate is. the handful of "leans republican" states may add up to 50-70 more, but the presidential race is the dems to lose this year and neither Hillary nor Bernie Sanders is likely to screw this one up.

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These sort of polls are stupid and tell you nothing except the media are trolls random thoughts - 26/11/2015 02:57:49 PM 397 Views
and the amazing thing is: Trump is the *moderate* republican in this race! moondog - 25/11/2015 06:51:32 PM 352 Views
No, he's not. Legolas - 25/11/2015 07:18:00 PM 473 Views
actually, he is moondog - 02/12/2015 12:27:07 AM 402 Views
So you are sating that Hillary and Trump are on the same page? random thoughts - 02/12/2015 04:11:00 PM 445 Views
Only if you ignore or arbitrarily dismiss the actual moderate candidates. Legolas - 02/12/2015 06:56:24 PM 556 Views
i don't see how single-digit candidates have any bearing this close to Iowa moondog - 03/12/2015 12:26:16 AM 463 Views
I saw 17% for Rubio today. That's a long way from single digits. Legolas - 03/12/2015 12:49:10 AM 458 Views
he's a solid third from what i've seen. still has a long way to go, though moondog - 03/12/2015 08:04:41 PM 443 Views
Huckabee won Iowa in 2008. That is how important it is *NM* random thoughts - 03/12/2015 01:54:21 PM 186 Views
to the larger points I didn't address previously.... moondog - 03/12/2015 07:52:42 PM 525 Views
and one more from last night moondog - 03/12/2015 10:17:31 PM 579 Views
Eh, Europe is different. Legolas - 04/12/2015 01:27:23 AM 509 Views
You're either delusional, tweaked outta your mind, or an idiot. *NM* TyrReborn - 26/11/2015 12:54:37 AM 185 Views
the answer is D *NM* random thoughts - 26/11/2015 02:54:06 PM 175 Views
another well thought out politcal argument for planet bizzaro *NM* random thoughts - 26/11/2015 02:53:39 PM 169 Views
Hillary must be peeing her pants in anticipation of her vs. Trump *NM* kHz1000 - 25/11/2015 09:12:52 PM 231 Views
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