That is a major factor in Iran's willingness to cooperate at these talks. When oil starts topping $120 or $140 again, and it will, I'm not so sure they'll be all that inclined to sit down and talk.
It should be noted that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa in 2005 that nuclear weapons are off limits for Islamic sates. Not even possession of such weapons is allowed under his ruling. In light of this, perhaps Iran's goal is somewhere between what Iran professes on the world stage and what the Israelis, with much frothing of mouth, accuse them of doing. And that goal might be to acquire what some refer to as the Japan Option. The Japan Option is basically having the ability to become a nuclear power in a short amount of time should the country feel threatened enough.
Of course Khamenei could be lying his ass off. Or there might be powers in Iran which are secretly carrying out a nuclear weapons program. Who knows! I did read an interesting article several months ago which posited that North Korea's second nuclear test was actually Iran's first. The author who penned it went on to list all sorts of areas where the two countries were working in tandem to improve missiles and enrichment capabilities.
But there is one thing I know for sure: Sanctions are stupid. They punish the common people, not the leaders. And keeping western oil companies out of Iran means that Chinese ones will lock in contracts for future oil and gas supplies.
It should be noted that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa in 2005 that nuclear weapons are off limits for Islamic sates. Not even possession of such weapons is allowed under his ruling. In light of this, perhaps Iran's goal is somewhere between what Iran professes on the world stage and what the Israelis, with much frothing of mouth, accuse them of doing. And that goal might be to acquire what some refer to as the Japan Option. The Japan Option is basically having the ability to become a nuclear power in a short amount of time should the country feel threatened enough.
Of course Khamenei could be lying his ass off. Or there might be powers in Iran which are secretly carrying out a nuclear weapons program. Who knows! I did read an interesting article several months ago which posited that North Korea's second nuclear test was actually Iran's first. The author who penned it went on to list all sorts of areas where the two countries were working in tandem to improve missiles and enrichment capabilities.
But there is one thing I know for sure: Sanctions are stupid. They punish the common people, not the leaders. And keeping western oil companies out of Iran means that Chinese ones will lock in contracts for future oil and gas supplies.
南無阿弥陀仏!
Did Iran just blink?
06/10/2009 08:45:28 AM
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One hopes for the best, but we'll see in the long run.
06/10/2009 03:11:47 PM
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For once I agree with you completely.
06/10/2009 07:43:52 PM
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You can't really compare the situation in NK to Iran
07/10/2009 07:13:02 AM
- 281 Views
Not completely, but there are many parallels.
07/10/2009 10:37:53 AM
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Apples and Oranges, really
07/10/2009 08:22:54 PM
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Oil has been going for around $70/barrel lately.
07/10/2009 05:54:41 AM
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