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That bump is, at least so far, purely hypothetical. Legolas Send a noteboard - 22/01/2020 09:25:55 PM

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My premise is, Trump acquitted, wins re-election with the bump from the general public growing increasingly weary with the impeachment process. What could Pelosi hope to gain from this?

My guess, she is hoping it makes at least 4 Republican Senators vulnerable in so-called purple districts. To aero's point, it would take at least 5.


On a national level, it's still far from clear that a majority is opposed to impeachment or that it's making people like Trump better - see my reply to Greg. And as for particular districts, I remember discussing not too long ago, although I can't recall if you were included in that conversation, that even the polls quoted by Trump's reelection campaign to support the theory that it's killing Democratic House candidates in vulnerable districts, showed that the whole thing was making very little difference either way. It might still happen - but I doubt it.

Of course, Trump could still win even without such a bump, and I don't think there's any scenario in which the Dems gain five Senate seats without also winning the presidency. The four seats needed if they do win the presidency are already unlikely.

So I don't think Pelosi has much to lose with impeachment. And yeah, what she has to gain is making the last Republican moderates, Collins especially, choose between the devil and the deep blue sea. Take a stand and get torn apart by rabid Trump fanboys in a Republican primary, or swallow their principles and with it their credibility towards moderate voters in the general. Romney and Murkowski aren't facing reelection this year and have reasons to believe they could survive either way, but Collins...

I suppose the best tactic for McConnell if he plays the long game is to let Romney and/or Murkowski vote to impeach, with Collins voting against but making clear she's nevertheless absolutely not on board with what Trump did.

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As Senate Trial Begins, 44% Approve of Trump (Gallup Poll) - 22/01/2020 12:47:44 PM 526 Views
It was my understanding that there would be no math - 22/01/2020 03:53:05 PM 187 Views
You do realize that is the single most anti-impeachment recent poll out there? - 22/01/2020 06:19:18 PM 209 Views
Practical question - 23/01/2020 03:05:59 PM 162 Views
Not really, no. - 23/01/2020 07:23:58 PM 186 Views
Fivethirtyeight rates the polling of it a B. So it's credible. - 24/01/2020 02:07:19 PM 189 Views
So true - 24/01/2020 03:41:43 PM 165 Views
Sure it is, I didn't say it's an unreliable poll. Just that it's an outlier. - 24/01/2020 06:41:47 PM 178 Views
I agree with everything you replied with. - 24/01/2020 07:22:45 PM 181 Views
Not sure I agree with your last point. - 24/01/2020 08:06:49 PM 168 Views
I wonder what Pelosi has in mind for her endgame. - 22/01/2020 06:38:41 PM 180 Views
The Democrats already know they're going to lose 1 here in Alabama - 22/01/2020 06:58:00 PM 189 Views
I assume that's why he said 4. Otherwise 3 would do it, with a Dem VP. - 22/01/2020 07:26:04 PM 180 Views
I don't think that's what he meant. - 22/01/2020 07:32:20 PM 173 Views
Oh. Right. Assuming a Trump re-election, then - certainly plausible at this point. *NM* - 22/01/2020 07:38:37 PM 85 Views
Yes aerocontrols is right.. - 22/01/2020 08:39:49 PM 178 Views
That bump is, at least so far, purely hypothetical. - 22/01/2020 09:25:55 PM 188 Views
It's also 10 months away. Polls can change a lot in 10 months. *NM* - 22/01/2020 09:49:41 PM 81 Views
Your premise is full of shit - 23/01/2020 05:44:01 PM 198 Views
Er, yes, since you ask, I do include you among said 'rabid Trump fanboys'. - 23/01/2020 06:58:41 PM 185 Views
And I consider you a moron. Your point? *NM* - 23/01/2020 07:59:11 PM 102 Views
Clearly I don't have any point you're interested in hearing. - 23/01/2020 08:38:27 PM 178 Views
I mean, Roy Moore is running in this election again, as far as I'm aware. - 23/01/2020 03:41:57 AM 179 Views
Yeah, but it seems super unlikely, right? - 23/01/2020 03:11:06 PM 166 Views
Man I sincerely hope not, but Moore's sorta like a cold sore. - 23/01/2020 05:13:27 PM 166 Views
Surely this time, if Trump is also all-in against him, there's no way he wins the primary? *NM* - 23/01/2020 07:02:33 PM 91 Views
Surely, a pedophile won't win the nomination. - me a few years back *NM* - 24/01/2020 04:11:58 AM 90 Views
?! - 24/01/2020 12:35:28 PM 176 Views
Re: ?! *NM* - 24/01/2020 12:35:54 PM 87 Views
The login problem seems to be blocking attempts to edit posts - 24/01/2020 12:38:34 PM 168 Views
Apparently afterwards it was claimed that this was widely known in his hometown since the 80s... - 24/01/2020 06:07:15 PM 176 Views
That was the line Moore's voters used. - 24/01/2020 07:23:06 PM 174 Views
The parts he openly admitted to were questionable enough. - 24/01/2020 08:07:08 PM 177 Views

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