If only because his posting is considerably lower this game compared to most games where he keeps it up. I know he just posted but in my table he had only 6 posts. I feel like that's pretty ridiculous considering him as a player and the opportunity to speak. And he's been just rubbing me the wrong way. I can't tell you why cause I don't no. Goddam gut feelings. This always happens. Someone looks suspicious to me and I can't explain why.
I've generally learned to distrust those vibes, what generally happens is that there are always a few cases where you were 'right' and you remember those, but you don't remember all the various wrongs because the game generally forces you to have tons and tons of those anyway. Lower then normal posting is genuinely suspicious though, barring RBIRL, but it's also not a strong lead, but it is a lead, rana and gher both have been fairly quiet, most probably this is because they were genuinely busy, but regardless scum are, IMO, less likely to post when busy because they like to spend more time thinking on what they should say, don't like to kick off quick posts when one little mistake can be lethal, so it's not a strong indicator but it is better than nothing. I suggest though that you wait till we've lynched to make any decisions, that will tend to change things.
I also don't think that Isaac is scum. His actions look to be genuinely pro-town and beet's accusations are not strong at all. Isaac's defense makes complete sense. Particularly on the DK cop claim. It's not the big of a deal and his post by no means threw up a red flag for me.
Well, you've convinced me
By the way, who should I try to investigate tonight? I don't think it will hurt to get a town consensus on this as I doubt there's a way they can prevent someone from being copped.
I'm probably going to regret this in the future, but I'd like a win to erase last game and I mod next so at least it can't bite me next game. So, this is a bad idea, for a whole lot of reasons. First, the most common scum role is RBer, so they can probably block your copping, and if they know going in that you are targeting one of them they're more likely to expend the RB then if they see it going on a townie, but that's fairly minor. They can also, if a consensus is a factor, steer the who it's aiming at, and that's a much bigger factor. The second most common scum role after RBer is an immunity to copping or total investigative immunity, we see it in roughly half the games and usually have 3 scum, thus my comment about your copping, even with miller indicating your sane, having a 1 in 6 chance of being wrong, even at random someone you cop right now should be viewed as only 83% likely to be town, compared to the current 8/11 73% pure random value of being town... that's high in a way, you can rule yourself out to be 7/10, 70%, drop DK probably and 6/9 or 67%, still not much better that 83% though...
...but if they have someone who can give a false read on a copping it goes way up, because it's not hard to aim a gun at yourself or your allies when you need to, and when I have such a player on my team I make an effort to draw cop attention to them, can't do too much or they may get lynched instead, but if you can get a cop to aim that investigation at your cop proof scum-buddy, you've practically got victory handed to you. And it would be easier than you think right now, because if they're smart they've already been piling on light suspicion on that player, so a move to press you to cop them under your suggested consensus would be effectively invisible. It is literally the best suggestion I could hope for if I was running a scum team with a cop-proof guy, and that's been roughly half the time in recent games. Now, the next most common role is an extra NK, after that, it's an ability to hit someone with a scum-bomb, a couple games back rana had one, it was every other night use and we agreed not to use it on night 1 just so we could use it on night 2 when we'd have better odds of knowing where the cop was aiming, worked perfectly too, the cop went right where we thought they would, unfortunately the person was a PGO, freak bad luck saved the town from getting totally screwed, mores the pity
So if the scum know where you're going with your copping, and they have one of those abilities, they've got very strong odds of basically turning your role power into a weapon to use on the town. They may not have such an ability, but you have to think about this logically, if they do, then advanced warning of who you're copping aids them greatly, worse though, is come tomorrow if you got a hit on someone, if I were them and you'd announced I'd be saying "Well, Fox told everyone who he was aiming at, even let us have a say in it, the scum were forewarned, and... [if you got a guilty hit] they might have tagged X with a scum-ray, figure its maybe 1 in 3 they have one, basically the same odds of Fox targeting a scummer anyway. And if you got back an innocent hit... "Well, Fox told everyone... they could easily have maneuvered their cop proof guy into position to be copped" and then I'd say "Think about this, they either do or don't have a RBer, if they do, then they should have blocked the copping, but they didn't, that means they either have one but wanted the copping to go through, meaning it's not real, or they don't have a RBer, and if they don't have a RBer then it's probably because they have a cop proof or scum bomb, after all, only one person has died per night so far, and we're role heavy, so they probably have something and it's not a NK, so it's almost definitely cop-proof or scum bomb"
See what I mean? Mind you, I'm not suggesting you pick a name out of the hat, by preference it's better when you find a scummer then prob-town someone, but both are good results and it's preferable to aiming your copping at one or two obvious people anyone can guess, drop off people you feel confident about sure, but don't broadcast who you're aiming at, even if the scum can guess who you'll cop down to two or three people they've got a strong chance of screwing with it if they have that ability, but not enough of one to warrant any strategy like not RBing you so that you can cop someone they want you to cop, and at a minimum that removes some of the pitfalls we have to deal with if you pick the person in advance. Just my opinion obviously but I've some knowledge on how to be a good scummer I think
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Mafia 22: Day 2 - Get the Ball Rolling
05/05/2011 07:29:12 PM
- 2705 Views
Well, I guess that's for the best.
05/05/2011 07:46:52 PM
- 886 Views
Yeah, I guess that's not a worst case scenario
05/05/2011 08:19:50 PM
- 865 Views
Actually, probably best thing that could have happened, to be honest.
05/05/2011 08:36:57 PM
- 756 Views
OK, so the Bergioyn thing was kind of a bust
06/05/2011 04:58:14 AM
- 734 Views
I am against this plan.
06/05/2011 05:53:27 AM
- 785 Views
I'm inclined to agree with beetnemesis, actually.
06/05/2011 08:27:54 AM
- 883 Views
Are you really that sure that DK is evil to vote?
06/05/2011 12:24:21 PM
- 815 Views
Okay, right now I'm looking at Beet, FT, and DK
07/05/2011 02:04:01 AM
- 805 Views
Re: Okay, right now I'm looking at Beet, FT, and DK
07/05/2011 03:01:55 AM
- 848 Views
Re: Okay, right now I'm looking at Beet, FT, and DK
07/05/2011 05:10:09 AM
- 735 Views
A roleclaim seems pretty reasonable
07/05/2011 07:00:53 AM
- 789 Views
I think he wants identity claims, not roleclaims. Otherwise he'd have asked for mine too. *NM*
07/05/2011 07:15:50 AM
- 466 Views
Yes, just character *NM*
07/05/2011 02:22:50 PM
- 522 Views
Ah, that's probably better.
07/05/2011 06:46:03 PM
- 885 Views
Well, if DK is RBIRL,
07/05/2011 08:06:04 PM
- 911 Views
I could
08/05/2011 07:06:44 PM
- 832 Views
Would you mind coding it beforehand?
08/05/2011 08:59:16 PM
- 911 Views
I agree. A code would be ideal here.
08/05/2011 10:14:54 PM
- 758 Views
Good idea. OK, here it is.
09/05/2011 12:28:08 AM
- 869 Views
When you say you "don't like doing codes a lot", does that mean you don't want all of us to do it?
09/05/2011 06:30:52 PM
- 907 Views
Certainly, I'll enlighten as best I can.
07/05/2011 07:15:03 AM
- 873 Views
Yeah, we haven't waited for a modkill in a while. I think that's a problem we need to work on
07/05/2011 04:32:41 PM
- 808 Views
Okay, that pretty much answered all my questions
07/05/2011 04:44:34 PM
- 754 Views
Le Sigh
10/05/2011 01:48:19 AM
- 727 Views
Re: Le Sigh
10/05/2011 04:03:47 AM
- 787 Views
Everybody in Greek myth is drenched in blood.
10/05/2011 04:24:14 AM
- 686 Views
And we don't really have a clue what we're looking for in the scum either.
10/05/2011 06:45:09 PM
- 740 Views
OK, and my decryption:
10/05/2011 05:42:32 AM
- 886 Views
Code checks, let's go ahead an audit them
10/05/2011 07:22:36 AM
- 790 Views
Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 04:09:20 AM
- 753 Views
Re: Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 04:19:55 AM
- 807 Views
Re: Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 05:46:49 AM
- 754 Views
Alexander seems a bit off-flavor, but I can see Leonidas as a possibility
11/05/2011 06:17:51 AM
- 957 Views
Re: Alexander seems a bit off-flavor, but I can see Leonidas as a possibility
11/05/2011 07:04:08 PM
- 776 Views
I've a feeling we could probably exclude the Persians
11/05/2011 07:20:58 PM
- 751 Views
You can go ahead and do that.
11/05/2011 09:17:11 PM
- 826 Views
Plus, there's the whole "well-known" thing
11/05/2011 10:02:14 PM
- 772 Views
Re: Plus, there's the whole "well-known" thing
11/05/2011 11:21:44 PM
- 858 Views
I was referring to ranagrande's "Have you heard of your character" question
12/05/2011 12:39:55 AM
- 773 Views
If you guys are going to guess what my character is, why not jsut ask me to character claim?
12/05/2011 02:53:17 AM
- 653 Views
Re: Plus, there's the whole "well-known" thing
12/05/2011 03:29:52 AM
- 785 Views
I think Troy was in Asia
12/05/2011 03:53:13 AM
- 812 Views
Yes, it's in Anatolia.
12/05/2011 04:50:06 AM
- 786 Views
So I wikipediaed it.
12/05/2011 05:23:37 AM
- 802 Views
Wow, 'historicity' is a word, I never knew that
12/05/2011 05:43:53 AM
- 792 Views
Yeah, I'm not opposed, I had just always assumed the Trojans were Greeks, so I was surprised.
12/05/2011 05:54:24 AM
- 718 Views
Re: Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 09:16:11 PM
- 746 Views
I actually believe Katie.
11/05/2011 01:11:17 AM
- 759 Views
I think most of us do, but I don't think you've contemplated the facts thoroughly
11/05/2011 03:53:30 AM
- 828 Views
So...
11/05/2011 03:11:35 AM
- 877 Views
Re: So...
11/05/2011 03:51:57 AM
- 758 Views
Wait, we have that?
11/05/2011 04:44:10 AM
- 869 Views
11/05/2011 05:13:50 AM
- 763 Views
Yea, I tend to skim when your posts get too long, unless their life-or-death, so to speak. *NM*
11/05/2011 06:45:07 AM
- 457 Views
One might note that when they get 'too long', there's generally a reason they did
11/05/2011 06:57:38 PM
- 788 Views
Yes, but sometimes that reason is that you want to bury suspicions in a wall of text . *NM*
11/05/2011 11:20:01 PM
- 482 Views
Probably not
11/05/2011 11:56:11 PM
- 702 Views
I'm not going to lie, I'm trying to decide of you are serious or not.
11/05/2011 05:36:59 AM
- 850 Views
My character claim.
12/05/2011 02:27:03 PM
- 823 Views
Good job at making yourself incredibly suspicious
12/05/2011 03:24:18 PM
- 768 Views
BUM BUM BUMMMMMMMMMMMMM
12/05/2011 04:17:51 PM
- 810 Views
Yeah, that probably requires some explaining away
12/05/2011 09:13:39 PM
- 779 Views
Not true this time.
12/05/2011 11:27:55 PM
- 772 Views
Re: Not true this time.
12/05/2011 11:57:58 PM
- 735 Views
Re: Not true this time.
13/05/2011 12:01:46 AM
- 748 Views
Pretty much that you're wrong
13/05/2011 01:14:28 AM
- 773 Views
I am wrong, judging by Hobo's post
13/05/2011 01:24:38 AM
- 748 Views
I admit this is possible, but...
13/05/2011 01:36:28 AM
- 777 Views
Re: I admit this is possible, but...
13/05/2011 01:46:51 AM
- 856 Views
2 things about that.
12/05/2011 11:26:14 PM
- 719 Views
This is an easy misunderstanding.
13/05/2011 12:24:52 AM
- 734 Views
Actually, can we get a quick headcount?
15/05/2011 12:10:11 AM
- 719 Views
Yo.
15/05/2011 01:15:05 AM
- 814 Views
We seem to have reached an impasse
17/05/2011 01:07:29 PM
- 934 Views
Option Pick (Table)
17/05/2011 11:13:07 PM
- 827 Views
Yeah, I'm not specially fond of roleclaiming this early in the game.
18/05/2011 01:51:36 AM
- 768 Views
Okay Fox, it looks like it's gonna be you
19/05/2011 03:32:47 AM
- 781 Views
I guess that's plausible
19/05/2011 06:02:21 AM
- 782 Views
Re: I guess that's plausible
19/05/2011 06:19:57 AM
- 776 Views
It is a strategy that is most valuable the earlier you use it though.
19/05/2011 06:39:29 AM
- 738 Views
I say don't RC yet. Wait for us to discuss my claim and where to go from here. *NM*
19/05/2011 03:35:49 PM
- 492 Views
Okay, cop claim in play, so what do we want to do?
19/05/2011 06:01:55 AM
- 933 Views
Even if he has been outed as the cop
19/05/2011 06:24:31 AM
- 718 Views
Hm. The roleblocker is a pretty big thing. If one of us is cop though, come foward
19/05/2011 06:54:30 AM
- 711 Views
It also ties up their roleblocker though.
19/05/2011 06:56:29 AM
- 827 Views
The one thing that makes me slightly suspect the claim
19/05/2011 12:49:38 PM
- 867 Views
Nevermind
19/05/2011 12:51:44 PM
- 848 Views
Anyway, you would think that because of my previously flub ups, I'd learn.
19/05/2011 03:43:09 PM
- 800 Views
"Because I've demonstrated a penchant for making mistakes, obviously this time is for real."
19/05/2011 06:21:17 PM
- 914 Views
OK then, I'll RC
20/05/2011 07:23:07 PM
- 808 Views
Makes sense to me.
22/05/2011 05:43:56 PM
- 768 Views
I'm the cop.
22/05/2011 09:50:11 PM
- 886 Views
Well this was easier than expected.
22/05/2011 10:24:52 PM
- 781 Views
Wow, yeah. Wtf is this? Vote: Darth Katie. *NM*
23/05/2011 12:15:14 AM
- 435 Views
Hmm...
23/05/2011 01:42:32 AM
- 874 Views
We can make an argument to lynch her purely off the "lynch all liars" rule as F-T said.
23/05/2011 02:10:11 AM
- 913 Views
*Hits self in the face repeatedly*
23/05/2011 09:19:40 AM
- 734 Views
Did I mention I didn't get a lot of sleep last night?
23/05/2011 09:25:15 AM
- 644 Views
I can believe that at least
23/05/2011 10:29:12 AM
- 810 Views
Oh please
23/05/2011 02:35:28 PM
- 836 Views
This would all be more believable
23/05/2011 03:32:31 PM
- 721 Views
I didn't remember that about Option B
23/05/2011 03:52:11 PM
- 809 Views
I will *Unvote* for now
23/05/2011 05:42:22 PM
- 875 Views
You don't approve of a doctor that can protect himself?
23/05/2011 11:23:58 PM
- 774 Views
Yeah, this is what I expected the other plausible screw-up to be.
23/05/2011 07:10:46 PM
- 731 Views
So... Fox and DK have both claimed cop?
23/05/2011 02:34:30 AM
- 789 Views
Well, now the switch around to a Doc claim.
23/05/2011 03:56:48 PM
- 721 Views
He's Beloved though (if he's not scum)
23/05/2011 04:07:06 PM
- 921 Views
Yeah, this whole thing didn't really work out too well
23/05/2011 04:38:30 PM
- 726 Views
It's been an unmitigated disaster
23/05/2011 06:01:23 PM
- 780 Views
So, uh... Wow.
23/05/2011 07:38:36 PM
- 788 Views
Before this Mass RC idea takes hold...
23/05/2011 07:59:18 PM
- 820 Views
All right...
23/05/2011 08:29:28 PM
- 896 Views
Possibly
23/05/2011 08:51:52 PM
- 807 Views
Was it Kronin or Gher that did the whole "everyone is a robot with a Backup Role" game?
23/05/2011 11:28:05 PM
- 774 Views
I want to start off by saying that I believe DK.
23/05/2011 08:21:26 PM
- 830 Views
Re: I want to start off by saying that I believe DK.
23/05/2011 08:41:10 PM
- 742 Views
Another point against Isaac:
23/05/2011 11:32:14 PM
- 804 Views
Actually, I didn't suspect either you or DK, you brought that up
23/05/2011 11:54:19 PM
- 811 Views
Re: Actually, I didn't suspect either you or DK, you brought that up
24/05/2011 12:28:24 AM
- 819 Views
So, seeing no objections to the mass character claim, let's start!
26/05/2011 01:16:36 AM
- 707 Views
Character Claims (table)
26/05/2011 02:48:44 AM
- 837 Views
Okay here goes.
26/05/2011 09:32:59 PM
- 708 Views
I'm Zeno. *NM*
27/05/2011 01:40:47 AM
- 489 Views
How paradoxical... I actually thought Xena for a moment
27/05/2011 03:08:57 AM
- 957 Views
I guess Xena is close, though it might take a while to get from there to Zeno.
27/05/2011 05:55:32 AM
- 743 Views
All right
28/05/2011 10:33:48 PM
- 848 Views
Re: All right
29/05/2011 12:42:12 AM
- 970 Views
Re: All right
31/05/2011 07:09:31 AM
- 809 Views
Heh, looks like I'm holding out for no particular reason.
30/05/2011 07:11:21 PM
- 922 Views
Kronin, what are we doing about Scott's continued absence?
29/05/2011 11:38:52 PM
- 915 Views
Yeah, I've been waiting on Scott's situation to resolve before doing anything
30/05/2011 02:04:07 AM
- 827 Views
Vote: Scott Blademaster
30/05/2011 10:23:50 PM
- 1090 Views
While I generally agree with your reasoning...
31/05/2011 12:10:35 AM
- 944 Views
I was actually thinking along extremely similar lines before we started doing character claims.
31/05/2011 12:28:44 AM
- 791 Views
Re: I was actually thinking along extremely similar lines before we started doing character claims.
31/05/2011 01:28:49 AM
- 756 Views
I believe the point of Socrates trial was that he was falsely accused
31/05/2011 01:08:26 AM
- 816 Views
Re: I believe the point of Socrates trial was that he was falsely accused
31/05/2011 01:35:31 AM
- 901 Views
Re: I believe the point of Socrates trial was that he was falsely accused
31/05/2011 03:28:20 AM
- 847 Views
Meh, I'm not exactly averse to lynching Scott...
31/05/2011 05:25:14 AM
- 834 Views
So, the way I see it, we have two (well, three) options for our lynch
31/05/2011 04:02:14 PM
- 914 Views
I'm a bit confused at the moment.
31/05/2011 06:27:26 PM
- 769 Views
Obviously, I would be against lynching me.
31/05/2011 07:41:15 PM
- 839 Views
I think DK and Fox are telling the truth, simply because we've had no contradictions
31/05/2011 10:11:32 PM
- 844 Views
Re: I think DK and Fox are telling the truth, simply because we've had no contradictions
01/06/2011 12:37:36 AM
- 787 Views
Re: I think DK and Fox are telling the truth, simply because we've had no contradictions
01/06/2011 09:27:32 PM
- 768 Views
Re: So, the way I see it, we have two (well, three) options for our lynch
31/05/2011 08:13:17 PM
- 902 Views
Responses!
31/05/2011 10:41:38 PM
- 894 Views
Re: Responses!
01/06/2011 02:32:22 AM
- 734 Views
That is an awful lot of talking to refute me
01/06/2011 04:41:13 AM
- 704 Views
I could go find my mallet again if brevity is desired, glad you've acknowledged I refuted you though
01/06/2011 05:18:46 AM
- 999 Views
About ?
01/06/2011 09:41:44 PM
- 847 Views
Huh, that was way more revealing than expected
01/06/2011 10:30:55 PM
- 732 Views
It IS pretty hard to say "Oh, well he's a new player" at this point *NM*
02/06/2011 12:40:32 AM
- 454 Views
Kronin actually hasn't answered my question about last Night yet.
02/06/2011 03:17:05 AM
- 707 Views
Well, I do sincerely doubt a philosopher's ring is in play
31/05/2011 10:39:41 PM
- 820 Views
Ohhhh! You know, I looked up a bunch of famous Spartans on Wikipedia when I read that
31/05/2011 10:44:05 PM
- 818 Views
I'm decently suspicious of ranagrande.
01/06/2011 03:55:26 PM
- 866 Views
True- as long as DK protects you, you've got at least one more night
01/06/2011 06:47:36 PM
- 804 Views
Re: True- as long as DK protects you, you've got at least one more night
01/06/2011 08:36:40 PM
- 857 Views
I don't think it's such a great idea Fox
01/06/2011 08:37:12 PM
- 813 Views
Hey, sorry all.
02/06/2011 04:45:45 AM
- 703 Views
No questions in particular
02/06/2011 05:10:52 AM
- 716 Views
Thoughts
02/06/2011 05:09:37 AM
- 871 Views
So couple of things:
02/06/2011 09:05:16 AM
- 788 Views
Well, basically DK's "Thoughts" post sums up my thoughts pretty well.
03/06/2011 01:34:52 AM
- 770 Views
Yeah, he seems to be prime suspect.
03/06/2011 12:48:30 PM
- 769 Views
I will also Vote: ?
04/06/2011 01:56:32 AM
- 750 Views
Hold off now everyone. We don't want him accidentally lynched. *NM*
04/06/2011 03:14:43 AM
- 387 Views
Re: Hold off now everyone. We don't want him accidentally lynched.
04/06/2011 12:18:53 PM
- 845 Views
Re: Hold off now everyone. We don't want him accidentally lynched.
04/06/2011 02:28:49 PM
- 777 Views
So, our titular rolling ball seems to be headed straight at ?. ?, do you have any thoughts? *NM*
03/06/2011 02:53:37 AM
- 463 Views
I am ?'s Mason Partner.
04/06/2011 06:44:26 PM
- 799 Views
I am itching to vote for him right now.
04/06/2011 07:01:34 PM
- 740 Views
That's true. Not only did he prematurely roleclaim, he prematurely FALSELY roleclaimed *NM*
04/06/2011 09:06:22 PM
- 464 Views
In my opinion that doesn't help him at all.
04/06/2011 07:41:00 PM
- 850 Views
I don't think there's much point in waiting on ? anymore
04/06/2011 09:31:26 PM
- 813 Views
I do agree...BUUUUTTTT
04/06/2011 09:58:09 PM
- 720 Views
Vote: ?
05/06/2011 12:56:57 AM
- 831 Views
I WOULD like to hear what ? has to say... but he's certainly taking his sweet time
05/06/2011 01:19:42 AM
- 767 Views
Twilight
05/06/2011 08:42:02 PM
- 828 Views
Re: Twilight
05/06/2011 09:13:07 PM
- 766 Views
Scott, being dead, was not included in the VNTL. *NM*
05/06/2011 10:26:22 PM
- 441 Views
I think he meant 'what was Scott?' *NM*
06/06/2011 12:27:07 AM
- 483 Views
I suppose this place is as good as any to say, Happy Birthday Gher! *NM*
06/06/2011 08:26:56 PM
- 410 Views