Re: Patience is a virtue Our options are 4-fold as I see it
Fox and Ravens Send a noteboard - 19/10/2011 04:16:09 PM
Now what?
I have no idea, normally I'd just find something to frame someone off of, either as scum or a general desire to push things along and see what happens, at the moment I don't see anyone who can be targeted. We can figure out some obvious things, unfortunately they aren't as beneficial as normal. Normally, the three of us who kinda pushed forward the poem aspect might be considered prob-town at this point... unfortunately those three people are myself, beet, and rana... 3 people especially well known for being able to achieve prob-town or even def-town status while being scummier than a truck stop restroom... and none of us actually stuck our proverbial necks out on that one, our behavior was very pro-active but effectively indistinguishable from how we'd behave if we were scum, which in all probability one of us. Beyond that, nobody's been bizarrely reluctant to divulge info... in all likelihood as soon as Rana noticed "Confound" in my message and said he saw a keyword, the scum caught, saw it, and relaxed... so we haven't had anything to see and if anything the scum would have been very inclined to enthusiastically participate, hoping to score some townie cred and crossing their fingers a town role might have a different poem and out their self for a lynch or NK.
In terms of our breakdown, I suspect we're 2-faction, we're pretty small for 2 NKs and I don't think FT likes cults. We'll find out eventually but FT does tend to aim away from the traditional on NKs as the Cairhien game showed, so we can't rule it out but I think for now we should assume we're pretty basic and 2 factions. We probably have 2 or 3 scum, so let's discuss the random lynch aspect on each.
If we have 3 scum, the odds of anyone being one are 30% and the odds of any combo of 2 are 9% and 3 at 2.7%, 30% is actually fairly okay-ish odds for a random lynch, it's not ideal but still likely better than a no lynch, if barely, if we're at 2 scum then it's 20% and any given combo is 4%... 20% is bad odds for a random lynch, if we assume the normal 1 cop and 1 NK night actions. If it's 2, we're better of no lynching until the cop has dirt or can exclude people to better the odds... in a base game, every townie life can be considered an extra half day before LyLo arrives and an extra person to decrease the scums odds of nailing the cop by random NK. This is why I generally support day 1 No Lynches over random Lynch... unfortunately this group regards the words "No Lynch" in the same way people hear phrases like "Can't make an omelette's without breaking a few eggs", instantly dismissing the idea, so we're likely to come up with a random lynch today... I won't back one, I will back semi-random and of course anything with evidence on it, but currently I see none and I personally don't have any avenues of investigation I feel we can explore. Further, I gather our roles won't be explained on death so everyone who dies effectively contributes less in death than normal... my advice to the town is essentially A) Come up with some avenue of investigation, B) Blitz Claim, in code, and hope for something, C) Vote No Lynch, or D) select someone randomly to vote for... and that is my order of preference too.
As I don't see anyone coming up with an A, I'd encourage B - or some variation thereof - on the grounds that it would at the very least make for a fairly quick game.
Blitz claim in code? On Day 1? HELL NO! I say throw that option out the window. If anything hiding our roles means more because even if they kill the cop, the scum wouldn't know they did. The less knowledge they have, the better. Using your letters, I favor everything: A, C, D, B.
Go Hokies!
CS/CpE. Yay engineering!
CS/CpE. Yay engineering!
Game 24, Day 1
11/10/2011 07:10:06 AM
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Voting record:
11/10/2011 07:11:21 AM
- 1359 Views
Also, writing this poetry was awesome, thank you very much.
11/10/2011 07:32:56 AM
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Are you trying to preemptively win the poetry contest I had planned for my next game? *NM*
11/10/2011 07:51:06 PM
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...did anyone else read that first verse and think this was a Diablo themed game? *NM*
11/10/2011 02:36:46 PM
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Other ways to use the RM poem:
11/10/2011 02:50:19 PM
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That seems doable
11/10/2011 04:02:35 PM
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Your keyword
11/10/2011 07:06:38 PM
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Re: Your keyword
11/10/2011 07:16:19 PM
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I also have a keyword.
11/10/2011 07:34:50 PM
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Some stats:
11/10/2011 07:04:28 PM
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Probably not coincidence...
11/10/2011 07:33:20 PM
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Mine as well.
11/10/2011 09:40:35 PM
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Same here.
12/10/2011 01:47:39 AM
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I'm honestly 50% expecting all townies to have the same message *NM*
12/10/2011 02:35:59 AM
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I think we should all code our keyword
11/10/2011 09:36:15 PM
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Sure, lets do that, but I suggest a variation
11/10/2011 10:22:48 PM
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Re: Sure, lets do that, but I suggest a variation
11/10/2011 11:46:00 PM
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Wait we can code however we want right?
12/10/2011 01:50:58 AM
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I'm having a tough time figuring out how this works
13/10/2011 04:19:32 PM
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Here ya are
12/10/2011 07:34:38 PM
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Sorry I have to do this but RBIRL
12/10/2011 12:55:26 AM
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Still missing codes from Yuna, Darth Katie, Hieshyn and Stephen *NM*
13/10/2011 02:47:07 PM
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sorry, new commute and longer hours
13/10/2011 07:10:25 PM
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I've always wondered- how long does it take to build things in minecraft?
13/10/2011 10:24:27 PM
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Okay, we're just waiting on Katie now, and she doesn't need to encode it...
13/10/2011 08:45:38 PM
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Right...
14/10/2011 02:21:29 AM
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Oookay...
15/10/2011 12:44:27 AM
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Ah, I knew I should have read the whole thread before posting.
15/10/2011 04:44:12 AM
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Okay... I think we can proceed then... everyone please decode in reply to here (Table)
15/10/2011 05:07:31 AM
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be careful this vehicle is decoding
15/10/2011 08:13:13 PM
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Yeah, how did you encode this?
16/10/2011 03:30:29 AM
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She didn't use Vigenere.
16/10/2011 03:50:23 AM
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all that and we all have the same word?
16/10/2011 07:26:02 PM
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Right. Um. Now what? *NM*
16/10/2011 08:23:07 PM
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Technically still waiting on Hieshyn, but that would appear to be the million dollar question *NM*
16/10/2011 08:30:57 PM
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i will bet you a snail to your million dollars that its the same
16/10/2011 09:20:45 PM
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I'll pass on that bet
16/10/2011 09:25:48 PM
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Re: I'll pass on that bet
16/10/2011 10:45:02 PM
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Agreed, but move on to what?
16/10/2011 10:49:10 PM
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Oh, come now.
17/10/2011 05:02:14 PM
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Right. Well, the poems probably won't give us any info
17/10/2011 05:14:31 PM
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Re: Right. Well, the poems probably won't give us any info
17/10/2011 08:31:58 PM
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Hahaha reading that made my head hurt
18/10/2011 12:52:13 AM
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Re: Hahaha reading that made my head hurt
18/10/2011 03:09:30 AM
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Whats to keep us from decoding it early? *NM*
18/10/2011 05:57:06 PM
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Well...nothing...except honor. And all posts do show the number of view they received.
18/10/2011 08:30:02 PM
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hmm, sounds like we found our scum
18/10/2011 05:55:08 PM
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? *NM*
18/10/2011 05:59:19 PM
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sorry wrong spot
18/10/2011 06:01:14 PM
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Still confused on how you arrived at that conclusion... *NM*
18/10/2011 06:15:46 PM
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notice you are still my vote
18/10/2011 07:48:39 PM
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Are you accusing lil ol me or beet? *NM*
18/10/2011 08:38:17 PM
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You, though its not much of an accusation
18/10/2011 08:49:01 PM
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Okay now that that is cleared up I can address it...
18/10/2011 09:00:23 PM
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Ok so if we all got the same keyword
17/10/2011 07:14:15 PM
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i don't get it either, blame beet. timewasting nonsense is his forte *NM*
17/10/2011 09:34:12 PM
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Hahaha ouch. It did have a purpose, though- if someone had a different poem.
18/10/2011 12:56:44 AM
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Lazy... LIKE A FOX! *NM*
18/10/2011 02:04:40 AM
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While I'm thinking of it
18/10/2011 02:40:39 AM
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Hmm. Sure, go ahead.
18/10/2011 03:31:20 AM
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Okay thanks... is everyone else good with this?
18/10/2011 03:39:24 AM
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Go ahead and post. At this point, I'd be very surprised if it's not the same. *NM*
18/10/2011 03:54:49 PM
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Well that's not very nice, FT! *NM*
18/10/2011 03:53:53 PM
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We all know the Ravens do all the work in that partnership . *NM*
19/10/2011 04:47:33 AM
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We didn't have any other leads
18/10/2011 02:39:34 AM
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Well if we all got the same one that seems to point toward it just being flavor *NM*
18/10/2011 05:58:28 PM
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Okay, our two poems
18/10/2011 08:55:29 PM
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Same same same! UGH this doesn't help us!
19/10/2011 01:15:03 AM
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Patience is a virtue Our options are 4-fold as I see it
19/10/2011 03:58:04 AM
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Re: Patience is a virtue Our options are 4-fold as I see it
19/10/2011 04:16:09 PM
- 1355 Views
Re: Patience is a virtue Our options are 4-fold as I see it
19/10/2011 09:32:58 PM
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Basically, everyone roleclaiming Day 1 to prevent the scum from planning anything *NM*
20/10/2011 01:25:14 AM
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What do you think of an AB meld?
20/10/2011 02:16:19 PM
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i only have the one poem
19/10/2011 07:21:53 PM
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Man, we have been spoiled by clue-heavy games
20/10/2011 01:34:48 AM
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Re: Man, we have been spoiled by clue-heavy games
20/10/2011 02:07:39 AM
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Yeah okay so we won't lynch Hieshyn
20/10/2011 08:40:18 PM
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SO you are going with a random lynch?
20/10/2011 08:38:46 PM
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Re: SO you are going with a random lynch?
20/10/2011 09:50:34 PM
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Re: SO you are going with a random lynch?
20/10/2011 10:51:14 PM
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lolwut?
21/10/2011 01:31:27 AM
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Not that I really want to delve into this...
21/10/2011 05:39:56 AM
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"Claiming" vanilla is BARELY anti-town.
21/10/2011 07:44:26 AM
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Re: "Claiming" vanilla is BARELY anti-town.
21/10/2011 01:14:57 PM
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I think we probably need to push onward here... (edit)
21/10/2011 05:48:00 AM
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I guess that works.
21/10/2011 07:45:53 AM
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It's not exactly ideal but we've got little else
21/10/2011 12:30:25 PM
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Re: It's not exactly ideal but we've got little else
21/10/2011 01:18:48 PM
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Re: It's not exactly ideal but we've got little else
21/10/2011 01:39:18 PM
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Re: It's not exactly ideal but we've got little else
21/10/2011 01:50:16 PM
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hey! how comes you get to edit? *NM*
21/10/2011 09:36:41 AM
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I'm special... actually I thought I'd found a bug and it was the only way to check
21/10/2011 12:21:22 PM
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Wow, lookit all the new posts
21/10/2011 02:57:17 PM
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First of all here's your table:
21/10/2011 03:13:19 PM
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Coding role messages: Aye or Nay? (Table)
21/10/2011 11:40:50 PM
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Nay *NM*
22/10/2011 01:43:07 AM
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Mind if you explain why you voted Nay? *NM*
22/10/2011 02:09:57 AM
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I'm generally against roleclaiming.
22/10/2011 02:20:44 AM
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Well... if we force someone to roleclaim before they're lynched, we'll know
22/10/2011 03:48:05 PM
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I don't see much point, and I think even tomorrow would be too early to reveal.
24/10/2011 04:11:17 AM
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Plan E
22/10/2011 02:02:16 AM
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I'm not sure I see a point in coding the accusations... I think I may have a Plan F though
22/10/2011 07:34:05 PM
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Incidentally note that there are two seperate pieces to Plan F
22/10/2011 07:36:55 PM
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Both. Although anything seems just as plausible as everything else right now. *NM*
22/10/2011 09:13:09 PM
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Neither.
23/10/2011 04:31:47 AM
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I have to disagree entirely, your arguments don't make sense to me
23/10/2011 04:57:53 AM
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Likewise
23/10/2011 08:28:47 AM
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So you admit there's nothing but advantage to coding our roles?
23/10/2011 01:40:08 PM
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I think we should do both.
24/10/2011 05:00:23 AM
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The Consoldiated Plan G
24/10/2011 02:04:23 PM
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The Random List (Table)
24/10/2011 02:07:46 PM
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Sounds good.
24/10/2011 02:59:17 PM
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Re: Sounds good.
24/10/2011 03:23:48 PM
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this is too confusing *NM*
24/10/2011 08:11:08 PM
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I was worried about that but I think we're about as simplified as we can get...
24/10/2011 08:37:49 PM
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Your encoded RC (Table)
24/10/2011 02:14:12 PM
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Your Encoded Target (Table)
24/10/2011 02:17:11 PM
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RBIRL
25/10/2011 04:41:32 PM
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Samesies - RBIRL
25/10/2011 04:57:47 PM
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Totally RBIRL here also.
25/10/2011 08:07:31 PM
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Relatively RBIRL... *NM*
25/10/2011 09:06:43 PM
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Pretty RBIRL... *NM*
26/10/2011 05:05:44 PM
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I'm not putting up 5 RBIRL
26/10/2011 07:56:14 PM
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I said relatively.
26/10/2011 08:33:10 PM
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I should be alright by the evening (note it is now thursday in ireland) *NM*
27/10/2011 12:52:29 AM
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Random Accusations (Table)
28/10/2011 04:30:48 PM
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The Case against Yunalesca
28/10/2011 04:34:33 PM
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do i rebut now? *NM*
28/10/2011 07:07:59 PM
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Certainly, the formalism is just to try to keep things neat and tidy with 10 accusations impending
28/10/2011 07:10:00 PM
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God damn it. I accidently used my random target as my target above. (sorry, ?)
28/10/2011 04:56:12 PM
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My accusation against ?
29/10/2011 02:18:54 AM
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Weak.
29/10/2011 02:42:56 AM
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Beetnemesis: The Man, The Myth, The Legend.
30/10/2011 01:11:26 AM
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The (lack of a) case for Fox and Ravens
30/10/2011 04:30:06 PM
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So you can't find a case for me so that makes me auto suspicious?
30/10/2011 10:44:56 PM
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Its more like I can't find anything suspicious but I'm forced to accuse you anyway *NM*
31/10/2011 01:57:45 AM
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Vote: Yunalesca
30/10/2011 03:19:21 PM
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i've been busy, hold your horsies *NM*
30/10/2011 11:15:51 PM
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So now we have your answer and...
31/10/2011 12:13:59 AM
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So if she isn't
31/10/2011 12:52:02 AM
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Well, I see four options
31/10/2011 08:49:00 PM
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1 and 2 seem best.
01/11/2011 02:55:51 AM
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Can I ask why?
01/11/2011 07:51:40 PM
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Let's just lynch DK and be done with it, Vote: Darth Katie
02/11/2011 02:03:49 AM
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As it's still Day 1, I have hopes of replacing her with the lynch/night kill dead.
02/11/2011 02:48:50 AM
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Re: As it's still Day 1, I have hopes of replacing her with the lynch/night kill dead.
02/11/2011 03:03:38 AM
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Huh, so you did. I apparently missed that entire post, my apologies.
02/11/2011 06:59:19 AM
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Is it a good idea to lynch a modkill target?
02/11/2011 02:17:30 PM
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I'm with Isaac on this one
02/11/2011 02:50:53 PM
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There's no reason for lynching me over anyone else who's being minimally active.1
02/11/2011 10:23:26 PM
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Darth_Katie has been lynched
03/11/2011 05:45:12 PM
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