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So, what now? Isaac Send a noteboard - 10/11/2011 12:49:12 AM
First, we have to consider whether Rana or I are telling the truth, coding yourself as cop on Day 1 when you're not is a big risk, and not on my estimate one I'd have taken as a scummer, but it is one I would have considered seriously for this game format if I was scum. I'm assuming neither Yuna or ? are cops or they'd have said as much, we'll need to wait to see if any of the other 4 claim cop, Stephen, Fox, beet, or Hieshyn... as that would change the analysis a lot on possible weirdness. We could simply have a psycho cop and a regular cop or both of us might be nuts in the same or different fashion, and I can't see testing ?/Kron or Beet to destruction to find out which, though the former would be my choice since Rana has a case, if one I consider thin, on ?/Kron whereas my reasons for selecting beet were strictly threat analysis. We need everyone to confirm they aren't a cop first though.

Assuming Rana and I are both telling the truth, then I'd say the odds of us having 3 scum are low, as one or more flawed investigators is a heck of an anti-town bent to throw on top of 3 scum in a 10 player game. Such being the case, both of us basically had a 1 in 4 chance of finding a scummer in our investigations, having 8 people each to pick from, and a 1 in 16 if we're both sane of having gotten two different people who were both guilty, which is worsened since my target as previously mentioned seems unaligned to rana's target. It's actually pretty good odds we're both nuts, since the odds of the 'true cop' getting a scummer result weren't great. We also don't know what kinda nuts either or both of us might be, we could have the 'get the opposite result' insane cop, or the 'get guilty all the time' cop, or one of the variations often seen in themed games like Whitecloak Inquisitor who gets guilty results off any darkfriend or channeler/warder. I'd not be surprised if the poem shed some light on this too, and the flavor of it already fed my suspiscion of nuts. Either way, it's a good thing we know now... we can also assume ?'s old character wasn't a cop, as he was town and said he had no active ability, we don't and won't know about DK though.

Personally I think we're both telling the truth, that seems most probable, and I doubted my result more because I've been a psycho-cop before and because unlike Rana I didn't have prior suspicions involved in my choice, to him, he suspected his target and got the answer he expected, to me, it was an improbable result to be distrusted and I suppose one could argue that I went looking for evidence to support my own expectations :P
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Game 24, Day 2 - Game has ended - 06/11/2011 06:04:27 PM 1391 Views
I'm actually a bit surprised by the choice of ? - 06/11/2011 07:34:57 PM 1245 Views
Yes, it was an oversight. He was a townie. *NM* - 06/11/2011 08:01:11 PM 524 Views
Voting record: - 07/11/2011 05:25:40 PM 1150 Views
Was he suspicious of anyone yesterday? - 07/11/2011 02:52:26 PM 951 Views
Re: Was he suspicious of anyone yesterday? - 07/11/2011 03:36:31 PM 1118 Views
I think a second look at our poetry is in order too, now we have more of it - 07/11/2011 12:43:21 AM 1086 Views
... and the two things - 07/11/2011 01:29:31 AM 1098 Views
I object to this plan. - 07/11/2011 02:07:35 AM 994 Views
UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 02:59:27 PM 882 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 06:23:42 PM 1015 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 08:17:53 PM 927 Views
Wait, would everyone be picking their own two letters? Ah, ok, it's not as dangerous as I thought - 07/11/2011 08:20:32 PM 917 Views
Yes *NM* - 07/11/2011 08:41:04 PM 514 Views
and follow that to the logical conclusion... - 07/11/2011 08:40:43 PM 1172 Views
no *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:19:20 PM 541 Views
FT already banned it *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:20:45 PM 518 Views
I know, I'm just voicing my opinion *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:27:34 PM 440 Views
Besides the ban, I can't see why you'd object - 07/11/2011 06:44:14 PM 956 Views
errrm, i don't think no is a strong enough word for this *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:58:09 PM 639 Views
? will be replacing Kronin... - 07/11/2011 01:56:08 AM 957 Views
Vote: ? - 07/11/2011 02:33:43 PM 1134 Views
Re: Vote: ? - 07/11/2011 02:42:15 PM 1279 Views
I'll echo that vote. - 07/11/2011 06:15:21 PM 1136 Views
He could have just been being polite - 07/11/2011 06:34:30 PM 1325 Views
Very good point, I think a roleclaim from ?, using Kronin's coded roleclaim from yesterday - 07/11/2011 08:22:45 PM 1091 Views
? can't decode Kronin's RC, and he wouldn't be allowed to give his own - 07/11/2011 08:45:50 PM 1012 Views
yeah I could go ahead and roleclaim if you want... - 07/11/2011 08:56:41 PM 980 Views
No, I don't want you to claim - 07/11/2011 08:57:47 PM 902 Views
Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:06:06 PM 927 Views
Re: Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:06:23 PM 980 Views
Re: Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:09:04 PM 953 Views
I oh got confused. - 08/11/2011 02:41:46 AM 1016 Views
That is not the case against Kronin. - 07/11/2011 09:48:52 PM 832 Views
I don't think substitution is enough - 07/11/2011 10:25:27 PM 1083 Views
Anybody else get a chuckle out of this? *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:36:28 PM 498 Views
Ignore the *NM* *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:43:16 PM 491 Views
doubly so... - 07/11/2011 06:49:05 PM 1106 Views
out of what? *NM* - 07/11/2011 07:51:06 PM 483 Views
Shrug, I think we should still get a roleclaim from ?/Kronin - 08/11/2011 01:51:24 PM 1070 Views
I coded a claim above...in response to Isaac I think... - 08/11/2011 08:46:07 PM 1002 Views
Re: I coded a claim above...in response to Isaac I think... - 08/11/2011 09:39:45 PM 1065 Views
Heh. Die? Die! His username makes that weird. *NM* - 08/11/2011 10:55:22 PM 535 Views
eh - 08/11/2011 10:40:47 PM 1031 Views
What am I missing here? - 08/11/2011 02:32:14 PM 1027 Views
Re: What am I missing here? - 08/11/2011 08:38:19 PM 1036 Views
Semi-RBIRL - 09/11/2011 05:26:11 AM 950 Views
Vote: Beetnemesis - 09/11/2011 10:24:06 PM 1151 Views
RC decode - 09/11/2011 10:35:52 PM 1091 Views
Bah, now I have to claim as well - 09/11/2011 10:46:37 PM 992 Views
All right, let's proceed sanely then - 09/11/2011 10:51:12 PM 983 Views
OK, Unvote - 09/11/2011 11:23:35 PM 898 Views
decoding: - 09/11/2011 11:22:31 PM 1030 Views
Would you mind walking through that last step? - 09/11/2011 11:44:30 PM 986 Views
Not at all. - 10/11/2011 12:09:09 AM 987 Views
Okay I confirm your decode then - 10/11/2011 12:16:22 AM 976 Views
... *NM* - 10/11/2011 01:59:58 PM 576 Views
Woah. Problems. - 09/11/2011 11:32:40 PM 917 Views
there is something really fishy going on... *NM* - 09/11/2011 11:34:09 PM 495 Views
what? - 09/11/2011 11:32:45 PM 801 Views
Re: what? - 09/11/2011 11:34:16 PM 870 Views
Actually, there's a strong chance neither is lying - 09/11/2011 11:53:35 PM 1182 Views
So, what now? - 10/11/2011 12:49:12 AM 1252 Views
Is or Is Not a Cop (Table) - 10/11/2011 12:52:52 AM 1039 Views
I am not a cop. *NM* - 10/11/2011 01:04:38 AM 418 Views
I'm the daycop. Vote: Ranagrande. - 10/11/2011 01:41:59 AM 976 Views
EBWOP: here's the code. - 10/11/2011 01:43:00 AM 833 Views
Decode confirmed - 10/11/2011 02:08:26 AM 871 Views
Yeah, forgot to say I used Vignere. *NM* - 10/11/2011 02:18:31 AM 499 Views
EBWOP again - 10/11/2011 01:44:04 AM 810 Views
Stand by for the moment - 10/11/2011 01:49:38 AM 1001 Views
Jesus...I REALLY need to read everything before I start posting. - 10/11/2011 01:54:11 AM 1005 Views
Add to that the next follow up, that ? might previously have been a Day Cop too - 10/11/2011 02:04:29 AM 1063 Views
It's possible... - 10/11/2011 02:18:02 AM 961 Views
Re: It's possible... - 10/11/2011 02:30:00 AM 1292 Views
I am a daycop. I found Isaac innocent. *NM* - 10/11/2011 02:02:05 PM 540 Views
We still need you role decode *NM* - 10/11/2011 06:19:53 PM 457 Views
(I did, in my other message) - 10/11/2011 07:18:43 PM 811 Views
Okay, got ya, decode confirmed *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:02:55 PM 509 Views
i am a cop - 10/11/2011 07:00:14 PM 848 Views
and my decode - 10/11/2011 07:14:38 PM 987 Views
Yep, decode confirmed *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:06:16 PM 530 Views
Also, which ? did you check? - 10/11/2011 08:08:05 PM 905 Views
original ? - 10/11/2011 08:10:30 PM 1003 Views
Thanks *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:11:13 PM 450 Views
Not a cop *NM* - 10/11/2011 11:48:27 PM 700 Views
To the decode-mobile! *plays 60s Batman music* - 11/11/2011 02:32:06 PM 899 Views
Let's take another look at that poem - 10/11/2011 01:44:36 AM 1088 Views
Hahaha I have to read all of these posts, but FT, you're insane. - 10/11/2011 01:58:01 PM 1071 Views
FT IS insane. Turns out I was missing something after all. *NM* - 10/11/2011 09:59:56 PM 426 Views
OK! Here we go: - 10/11/2011 02:23:10 PM 1044 Views
Re: OK! Here we go: - 10/11/2011 05:52:25 PM 1119 Views
I think it's time to consider mass RC - 10/11/2011 08:15:36 PM 942 Views
Sure... - 10/11/2011 09:19:49 PM 1161 Views
There's a lot of options still, and decode confirmed by the way - 10/11/2011 09:48:05 PM 1144 Views
I have been nominated! - 10/11/2011 10:30:37 PM 1036 Views
Thanks - 10/11/2011 10:36:36 PM 1088 Views
My pleasure *NM* - 10/11/2011 10:44:23 PM 425 Views
*NM* - 10/11/2011 11:21:59 PM 461 Views
Not saying that that is right of course... - 10/11/2011 11:23:23 PM 992 Views
Hmm... - 10/11/2011 11:20:50 PM 834 Views
I totally agree. - 10/11/2011 09:54:25 PM 898 Views
The wasy I see it, anybody not claiming cop is going to get lynched - 10/11/2011 11:57:24 PM 1028 Views
Lying and claiming cop when you can't decode your RC will get you lynched faster. *NM* - 11/11/2011 12:33:05 AM 455 Views
Which I didn't do *NM* - 11/11/2011 02:05:30 AM 504 Views
I know, I know. - 11/11/2011 03:57:51 AM 883 Views
Fox, did you get a response on your investigation? *NM* - 11/11/2011 12:20:12 AM 534 Views
I hadn't performed one yet. - 11/11/2011 12:34:48 AM 984 Views
Isaac - 11/11/2011 02:00:18 AM 1098 Views
Or me - 11/11/2011 02:07:10 AM 1002 Views
I'd recommend ? - 11/11/2011 02:15:24 AM 858 Views
Bring it. - 11/11/2011 03:10:14 AM 895 Views
Someone who has already been copped - 11/11/2011 03:57:08 AM 851 Views
I'll investigate ? because yuna's the other daycop - 11/11/2011 04:00:49 AM 872 Views
Wait a minute....I meant that I would be testing it against rana. Not yuna - 11/11/2011 01:39:16 PM 1147 Views
no i'm not, im a normal cop *NM* - 11/11/2011 09:18:23 PM 543 Views
I had everything messed up anyway *NM* - 12/11/2011 10:45:54 PM 474 Views
Vote: Beetnemisis/RBIRL - 11/11/2011 02:04:35 AM 920 Views
Hey people sorry for the unexpected RBIRL - 11/11/2011 11:47:11 AM 1101 Views
RBIRL here too. - 11/11/2011 01:34:45 PM 850 Views
I'm thinking either Hieshyn or ? - 11/11/2011 04:32:16 PM 979 Views
It kinda seems like Hieshyn and ? are our logical lynch targets, plus Cop (Table) - 11/11/2011 10:09:52 PM 1191 Views
Fox investigated ? and found him innocent *NM* - 11/11/2011 10:41:39 PM 457 Views
Vote: ? - 11/11/2011 10:46:43 PM 863 Views
Yeah, that seems logical next step, Vote: ? - 13/11/2011 02:59:25 AM 1206 Views
mrr, vote ? then *NM* - 13/11/2011 10:27:49 AM 627 Views
Think my vote was on ? already. - 13/11/2011 04:26:49 PM 1022 Views
Vote: ? *NM* - 14/11/2011 02:27:20 AM 577 Views
That should be lynch with yours, so... - 14/11/2011 03:07:36 AM 910 Views
? Has been lynched - 14/11/2011 03:50:31 AM 1088 Views
Game ends. - 14/11/2011 10:25:04 PM 949 Views
Role list: - 14/11/2011 10:26:32 PM 989 Views
Jeeez. - 14/11/2011 11:43:47 PM 958 Views
Kronin originally RC as a Tracker so we might have done better if we had been able to continue *NM* - 15/11/2011 12:06:07 AM 472 Views
Not even cause tracker is still the odd man out. - 15/11/2011 12:20:17 AM 952 Views
That might have worked but everyone would have had targets - 15/11/2011 02:20:43 AM 1053 Views
Maybe, but I still would have known he was guilty. *NM* - 15/11/2011 02:55:43 AM 444 Views
You were paranoid, amusingly enough. - 15/11/2011 02:59:43 AM 959 Views
Ya there was no hope for us *NM* - 15/11/2011 12:04:06 AM 475 Views
YAY! - 14/11/2011 10:48:54 PM 939 Views
Wow. *NM* - 15/11/2011 01:09:28 AM 527 Views
Also I would like to be added to the list of future Moderator - 15/11/2011 12:07:51 AM 830 Views
You'd have first dibs via our order of precedence system - 15/11/2011 02:05:04 AM 1074 Views
Also whoever Mods should probably post a recruitment thread on some other NBs - 15/11/2011 02:50:02 AM 996 Views
I expect my next game to draw in some new players. - 15/11/2011 02:58:59 AM 962 Views
More is better, okay that would be Hieshyn or Beet then, unless ? wants to toss in - 15/11/2011 03:26:25 AM 937 Views
Nope I'm not ready to mod yet... - 15/11/2011 08:29:24 PM 874 Views
hey - 15/11/2011 09:46:28 PM 826 Views
It's Hieshyn's if he wants it, otherwise I can go next. - 15/11/2011 12:40:13 PM 995 Views
I'm not ready to go next - 15/11/2011 02:43:07 PM 1073 Views
Aight, I think it's me then. - 15/11/2011 03:15:21 PM 846 Views
Re: Aight, I think it's me then. - 15/11/2011 04:09:07 PM 1020 Views
Deathless Mafia? Is that a thing? SQUEE, Mistborn! *NM* - 15/11/2011 10:15:49 PM 427 Views
If it wasn't a thing before, it is now! *NM* - 15/11/2011 10:53:14 PM 432 Views
ooooh - 15/11/2011 11:27:26 PM 866 Views
You've got a week to read the last 2....GO, GO, GO!! *NM* - 15/11/2011 11:43:21 PM 467 Views
hah! i could read both in two days - 16/11/2011 07:56:58 PM 900 Views
Just for you, the game shall be spoiler free! *NM* - 16/11/2011 12:12:24 AM 430 Views
Speaking of which, any timeline yet? - 19/11/2011 07:25:11 PM 898 Views
Sounds fantastic - 16/11/2011 12:10:06 AM 1059 Views
That could also be fantastic. *NM* - 16/11/2011 12:13:29 AM 471 Views
I AM ALL SORTS OF PUMPED. *NM* - 16/11/2011 09:11:38 PM 497 Views
Though may or may not actually be playing... *NM* - 16/11/2011 09:11:58 PM 439 Views
Before the next game starts, we probably need to discuss RC coding - 15/11/2011 02:15:27 AM 1191 Views
Yeah, I really didn't like that idea. - 15/11/2011 02:58:21 AM 1292 Views
An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:08:17 AM 1103 Views
Re: An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:36:38 AM 984 Views
Re: An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:43:39 AM 1323 Views
I really didn't like it either. - 16/11/2011 06:20:33 PM 955 Views
I liked my plan: Random voting ftw! *NM* - 16/11/2011 06:29:07 PM 484 Views

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