If we're going to hypocop, then let's do it right, ditto any hypodoc or hyporole stuff, which I am against doing.
If we hypocop, then let me remind everyone that it is the result not the target that must be selected randomly. On day 2 the most likely investigatees will tend to be higher profile players and anyone who acted even a tad suspiciously. Thereafter it will tend to always be anyone who acted suspiciously. No one picks their target for a role action out of a hat. Consider the most probable scenario from last night, the doc decided to protect a player most likely to be assassinated, i.e. a big threat, the DFs picked a person to kill who would be a big threat, it's actually very probable for them to pick the same person, if it wasn't then the doc role would basically be a tiny upgrade on a vanilla. If you make a list of the five most dangerous players, odds are your list will be very similiar to most of the others' lists. Select your hypocop target off that list, because those are the people the cop most likely investigated, the doc most likely docced, etc. Include anyone who raised a flag yeserday for hypocop. Think about who you would have investigated, and select that person, you don't need to randomize your target, just the result. For that result, assume the DFs are around 1 in 3 of the remaining 14 players who aren't you. If you have a die lying around, 1-4 pips, innocent, 5 or 6, guilty. If you have a coin, and no dice, just make a list of four people, and get two different denomination coins, i.e. nickel and a penny. NHPH (Nickel Heads, penny heads) equals 1, (NHPT) penny tails is 2, NTPH 3, and NTPT (both tails) is 4.
And say guilty or innocent, it may well be the cop is actually getting a result of crew or imperial, or not imperial, etc, but with the now slim odds of a third party, let's assume all result basically said friend or foe and use the guilty/innocent format, the cop should do the same. Otherwise if the cop got 'crew' and posts so after a bunch 'innocent', he/she might single themselves out.
Our goal in hypocopping is to let the investigator leave a receipt of his nightly transactions without exposing himself to attack, a strictly random pattern of results off a list that includes high-prob investigatees is the best way to block any pattern analysis by the DFs.
Example (and my hypcop):
I don't know who is or isn't a DF, but I consider many players especially dangerous, if they'r eone of the DFs, I want them taken out pronto, more than their DF allies.I want a list of six targets because in my case I'm going to randomly select an investigatee from my list using a six-sided die, if I am notthe cop. My list includes the 'known threats' as I call them, people who I've been playing against for a long time and who are likely to see through my tricks and traps. In this game that's KAtie, FT, Fox, Gher, and Hobo - who also all voted for the lynch of Hopper, who was innocent (although 100% lemming so it's less valid then normal), a good DF doesn't let an opportunity pass so odds are most of them voted for Hopper. That's five and I'll round it out to 6 with beetnemesis, since he said something I at least initially considered suspicious, and many of you should be sticking my name on that 'very suspicious table' anyway. I assign them each a number 1-6 and roll, in this case I'd do this randomly this time even if I were a cop, because none of them really stand out and I don't trust my subconscious to make decisions for me sionce it usually says "Kill Gher!" I roll my die and get a 1
I investigate (or hypocop) #1, KAtie, if the cop, I wait for a result and post it to the hypocop table. If not, I roll a d6 (a die) and get a number, let's say I did this and the number was 4, by my previous 1 to 4 innnocent, 5 and 6 guilty, DK shows up innocent, and I post that.
Trust me, this is the best way to hypocop, it keeps patterns from showing.
If we hypocop, then let me remind everyone that it is the result not the target that must be selected randomly. On day 2 the most likely investigatees will tend to be higher profile players and anyone who acted even a tad suspiciously. Thereafter it will tend to always be anyone who acted suspiciously. No one picks their target for a role action out of a hat. Consider the most probable scenario from last night, the doc decided to protect a player most likely to be assassinated, i.e. a big threat, the DFs picked a person to kill who would be a big threat, it's actually very probable for them to pick the same person, if it wasn't then the doc role would basically be a tiny upgrade on a vanilla. If you make a list of the five most dangerous players, odds are your list will be very similiar to most of the others' lists. Select your hypocop target off that list, because those are the people the cop most likely investigated, the doc most likely docced, etc. Include anyone who raised a flag yeserday for hypocop. Think about who you would have investigated, and select that person, you don't need to randomize your target, just the result. For that result, assume the DFs are around 1 in 3 of the remaining 14 players who aren't you. If you have a die lying around, 1-4 pips, innocent, 5 or 6, guilty. If you have a coin, and no dice, just make a list of four people, and get two different denomination coins, i.e. nickel and a penny. NHPH (Nickel Heads, penny heads) equals 1, (NHPT) penny tails is 2, NTPH 3, and NTPT (both tails) is 4.
And say guilty or innocent, it may well be the cop is actually getting a result of crew or imperial, or not imperial, etc, but with the now slim odds of a third party, let's assume all result basically said friend or foe and use the guilty/innocent format, the cop should do the same. Otherwise if the cop got 'crew' and posts so after a bunch 'innocent', he/she might single themselves out.
Our goal in hypocopping is to let the investigator leave a receipt of his nightly transactions without exposing himself to attack, a strictly random pattern of results off a list that includes high-prob investigatees is the best way to block any pattern analysis by the DFs.
Example (and my hypcop):
I don't know who is or isn't a DF, but I consider many players especially dangerous, if they'r eone of the DFs, I want them taken out pronto, more than their DF allies.I want a list of six targets because in my case I'm going to randomly select an investigatee from my list using a six-sided die, if I am notthe cop. My list includes the 'known threats' as I call them, people who I've been playing against for a long time and who are likely to see through my tricks and traps. In this game that's KAtie, FT, Fox, Gher, and Hobo - who also all voted for the lynch of Hopper, who was innocent (although 100% lemming so it's less valid then normal), a good DF doesn't let an opportunity pass so odds are most of them voted for Hopper. That's five and I'll round it out to 6 with beetnemesis, since he said something I at least initially considered suspicious, and many of you should be sticking my name on that 'very suspicious table' anyway. I assign them each a number 1-6 and roll, in this case I'd do this randomly this time even if I were a cop, because none of them really stand out and I don't trust my subconscious to make decisions for me sionce it usually says "Kill Gher!" I roll my die and get a 1
I investigate (or hypocop) #1, KAtie, if the cop, I wait for a result and post it to the hypocop table. If not, I roll a d6 (a die) and get a number, let's say I did this and the number was 4, by my previous 1 to 4 innnocent, 5 and 6 guilty, DK shows up innocent, and I post that.
Trust me, this is the best way to hypocop, it keeps patterns from showing.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Rafia in Space - Day 2 - Well....
- 07/11/2009 06:26:13 PM
2394 Views
Interesting turn of events.
- 07/11/2009 11:23:05 PM
1017 Views
It would matter which it was...
- 08/11/2009 03:07:02 AM
848 Views
First: Well done, doc/roleblocker. Second: Think we have a cult?
- 08/11/2009 07:57:48 AM
1079 Views
Should we decide on who to hypocop?
- 08/11/2009 08:04:24 AM
960 Views
I think randomly is the way to go today.
- 08/11/2009 04:16:30 PM
1053 Views
Re: I think randomly is the way to go today.
- 08/11/2009 04:36:53 PM
1111 Views
Well, yeah, that's the small risk of hypocopping- and why everyone should try to be random
- 08/11/2009 09:11:59 PM
1113 Views
Yes, I thought it over and realized that without hypocopping we don't find the Mafia either. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 06:52:14 AM
418 Views
Can we do two hypocops?
- 09/11/2009 05:23:15 AM
1007 Views
I think there's probably about an equal chance of there being a roleblocker or a doc.
- 09/11/2009 01:34:02 PM
1003 Views
What if we have both?
- 09/11/2009 04:29:34 PM
899 Views
Right, let's get this started- Hypocop Thread
- 09/11/2009 03:26:21 PM
960 Views
I investigated Isaac, and found him to be a devourer of children and kicker of puppies. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 09:30:24 PM
478 Views
But is he innocent or guilty?
*NM*
- 09/11/2009 09:31:40 PM
493 Views
*NM*
- 09/11/2009 09:31:40 PM
493 Views
It should be intuitively obvious to even a casual observer
. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 11:19:32 PM
462 Views
. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 11:19:32 PM
462 Views
Hypocop Table - Day 2, Complete
- 09/11/2009 06:26:22 PM
1096 Views
I investigated Darth katie and found her to be for the shadow *NM*
- 09/11/2009 10:40:11 PM
495 Views
i investigated fox and ravens and foud him innocent *NM*
- 10/11/2009 09:34:48 AM
525 Views
* found
- 10/11/2009 02:16:49 PM
972 Views
Good coffee isn't made of mud.
- 10/11/2009 02:39:37 PM
951 Views
Re: Good coffee isn't made of mud.
- 10/11/2009 07:45:06 PM
976 Views
Mmm I love the smell of coffee.
- 10/11/2009 10:19:19 PM
1099 Views
I did what ever you do and Napolean is for the dark side of the force... *NM*
- 10/11/2009 01:08:10 AM
497 Views
Napole<b>o</b>n. I'm saving your life here.
*NM*
- 10/11/2009 08:10:08 AM
565 Views
*NM*
- 10/11/2009 08:10:08 AM
565 Views
Stop!
- 10/11/2009 10:12:26 AM
974 Views
Re: Stop!
- 10/11/2009 10:21:46 AM
978 Views
So you're saying that
- 10/11/2009 02:05:39 PM
1178 Views
Forget about it
- 10/11/2009 05:12:31 PM
979 Views
Got new password, all is well
- 10/11/2009 05:13:37 PM
1042 Views
So, what next?
- 11/11/2009 07:06:37 AM
879 Views
Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
- 11/11/2009 06:15:33 PM
874 Views
Re: Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
- 11/11/2009 09:00:53 PM
985 Views
Well, that doesn't really help.
- 11/11/2009 09:31:20 PM
1008 Views
And with no dead people...
- 11/11/2009 10:26:29 PM
892 Views
I'm definitely not convinced this makes Isaac innocent.
- 11/11/2009 11:36:06 PM
1085 Views
Well... this is essentially a Day 1 reboot. I suppose we could just do another random lynch
- 12/11/2009 03:44:22 AM
1113 Views
I guess.
- 12/11/2009 06:04:22 AM
993 Views
Hm... ok, let's take a look at posting habits
- 12/11/2009 06:58:10 AM
982 Views
I wasn't asking the roleblocker to claim. I just voiced the possibility. *NM*
- 13/11/2009 05:30:45 AM
556 Views
Questions about the hypocop
- 12/11/2009 10:17:35 PM
1252 Views
I see nothing wrong.
- 12/11/2009 11:34:10 PM
993 Views
It probably should have been more random.
- 13/11/2009 12:05:11 AM
901 Views
Re: It probably should have been more random.
- 13/11/2009 12:39:52 AM
1126 Views
Okay.
- 13/11/2009 02:10:21 AM
1146 Views
To me it seems that from that Darth Katie and Issac are innocent...
- 13/11/2009 12:14:02 AM
1057 Views
Ok, I really think we should stop this before we do any more damage then has already been done...
- 13/11/2009 12:25:39 AM
1014 Views
I usually have to strangle the Day 1 No-lynch option, which makes me very visible
.
- 13/11/2009 04:32:28 AM
918 Views
.
- 13/11/2009 04:32:28 AM
918 Views
Actually...
- 13/11/2009 09:38:54 AM
1013 Views
The only reason I voted for him was cause Is aw his death as a win-win sutuation.
- 13/11/2009 06:13:03 PM
956 Views
It seems to me
- 13/11/2009 01:49:32 AM
948 Views
Well, I did notice that...
- 13/11/2009 04:37:43 AM
1139 Views
While that's true...
- 13/11/2009 05:28:54 AM
1058 Views
I meant no implication whatsoever. I was asked what I noticed, and I noticed that.
- 13/11/2009 06:55:18 AM
1130 Views
We should choose hypocopped people in the future to prevent events like this. *NM*
- 13/11/2009 06:09:18 AM
542 Views
I think that would limit the cop too much.
- 13/11/2009 09:37:49 PM
913 Views
I think it worked well in your gaem. Where we chose two, and hypocopped one of those. *NM*
- 14/11/2009 08:17:37 AM
446 Views
Yeah, but there were two definite suspects then.
- 14/11/2009 03:17:30 PM
915 Views
Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects. *NM*
- 14/11/2009 08:00:19 PM
620 Views
Re: Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects.
- 14/11/2009 09:00:24 PM
1065 Views
By the way...
- 13/11/2009 01:22:15 AM
1035 Views
Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
- 13/11/2009 06:11:30 PM
1000 Views
Re: Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
- 13/11/2009 06:22:05 PM
943 Views
Yeah, I doubt we're going to find out what he was before the day ends.
- 13/11/2009 07:19:48 PM
1069 Views
Question
- 13/11/2009 08:11:43 PM
1161 Views
I guess the no night-kill is what has people uncertain.
- 13/11/2009 09:08:09 PM
1073 Views
I just don't like lynching people randomly.
- 13/11/2009 09:44:59 PM
1093 Views
Well, we didn't discuss it because, in the end, it almost didn't matter
- 13/11/2009 10:27:29 PM
927 Views
Alright, let's look at those votes then
- 14/11/2009 10:56:08 AM
1095 Views
Re: Alright, let's look at those votes then
- 14/11/2009 08:02:50 PM
1044 Views
I'm getting antsy
- 15/11/2009 02:46:48 AM
1037 Views
Why Ranagrande?
- 15/11/2009 03:01:00 AM
900 Views
Dunno. Gut feeling. Maybe because he killed me last game!
- 15/11/2009 08:03:09 AM
978 Views
- 15/11/2009 08:03:09 AM
978 Views
I'm getting kind of antsy too.
- 15/11/2009 03:56:41 PM
1119 Views
All right
- 15/11/2009 06:56:33 PM
971 Views
It's up now.
- 15/11/2009 08:22:58 PM
1035 Views
Well, it does remind me of the MHael Steve incident a number of games back...
- 16/11/2009 05:57:11 AM
951 Views
Yes, I've been thinking of game 3 too
- 16/11/2009 06:16:13 AM
1031 Views
Vote Table
- 15/11/2009 08:18:37 PM
1065 Views
I think you're right
- 15/11/2009 09:26:47 PM
1134 Views
Sure, I'll mount an accusation
- 15/11/2009 11:16:07 PM
1092 Views
Ok it semms I have to clarify a little...
- 15/11/2009 11:23:09 PM
1214 Views
Am I suspicious just because I haven't posted much, or is there a different reason? *NM*
- 17/11/2009 03:24:21 AM
608 Views
Quick defense
- 16/11/2009 05:52:58 AM
1059 Views
Also: I support hypocopping Fanatic Templar or ranagrande
- 16/11/2009 05:57:24 AM
935 Views
I'm inclined to vote for beetnemesis.
- 16/11/2009 06:34:15 AM
1076 Views
I actually tend to agree here.
- 16/11/2009 07:07:48 PM
1102 Views
Psh. If I was a DF, I would have backed away from ranagrande as soon as people questioned it
- 17/11/2009 12:41:07 AM
1008 Views
But you're backing away from Ranagrande now.
- 17/11/2009 01:16:17 AM
1052 Views
I am not! Ranagrande is creepy!
- 17/11/2009 02:31:03 AM
1092 Views
You totally suggested we lynch Ranagrande.
- 17/11/2009 04:25:12 AM
1028 Views
Hm... ok, but that was really more idle discussion that a focused push for lynch
- 17/11/2009 05:50:44 AM
971 Views
Oh! I remember what I wanted to say!
- 17/11/2009 02:44:30 AM
1035 Views
But why keep trying to divert attention to a Cult?
- 17/11/2009 03:35:28 AM
1014 Views
Honestly? I just thought it sounded cool. Also, it supported the "no night kill" thing
- 17/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
1200 Views
Cult vs crew is a cult win
- 18/11/2009 03:11:36 AM
1120 Views
Hm? Was someone saying there were no DFs?
- 18/11/2009 03:19:35 AM
919 Views
I think what some of us are looking for here...
- 18/11/2009 03:28:25 AM
930 Views
Ahem. *Raises hand on stack of Terry Pratchett's "The Truth"*
- 18/11/2009 05:46:09 AM
955 Views
That's messed up
- 18/11/2009 05:50:01 AM
905 Views
I just finished rereading it last night
- 18/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
972 Views
Not really, but there was a debate about whether there could be a cult AND DFs...
- 18/11/2009 04:41:33 AM
1035 Views
It is an interesting conundrum.
- 17/11/2009 05:06:04 AM
1105 Views
P.S. I'm sorry if being indirectly called a lady is offensive to you.
- 17/11/2009 05:18:49 AM
993 Views
- 17/11/2009 05:18:49 AM
993 Views
It's like politics.
- 17/11/2009 06:31:04 PM
1083 Views
Honestly, I blame my new job
- 18/11/2009 05:52:28 AM
923 Views
Re: Honestly, I blame my new job
- 18/11/2009 09:23:34 AM
937 Views
No...
- 18/11/2009 12:47:40 PM
951 Views
actually
- 18/11/2009 01:15:00 PM
914 Views
Simply because you don't see any hard evidence is not enough of a reason not to vote.
- 18/11/2009 05:26:18 PM
1065 Views
I may be swayed to vote here because as FT or Isaac had said (i forget which),
- 18/11/2009 06:43:15 PM
1211 Views
I agree he looks pretty suspicious,
- 17/11/2009 03:39:18 AM
1070 Views
That would be a reasonable conclusion...
- 17/11/2009 04:54:47 AM
1083 Views
RBIRL 'til Thursday.
- 15/11/2009 11:10:49 PM
871 Views
reason why i voted for hopper yesterday
- 16/11/2009 03:22:22 AM
1077 Views
Well, any reason for voting for Hopper was basically a good reason.
- 16/11/2009 05:32:22 AM
1089 Views
RBIRL until Wednesday.
- 16/11/2009 02:09:34 PM
1000 Views
Didn't pass the test.
- 18/11/2009 03:09:29 PM
911 Views
Failed by one point, I might add. Curses. *NM*
- 18/11/2009 03:10:39 PM
542 Views
Apparently that both sucks and blows at the same time. But sorry man. Good luck on Monday. *NM*
- 18/11/2009 09:52:36 PM
497 Views
Actually people...
- 18/11/2009 08:53:08 PM
1043 Views
Re: Actually people...
- 18/11/2009 09:44:53 PM
1043 Views
Re: Actually people...
- 19/11/2009 02:36:59 PM
991 Views
Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
- 18/11/2009 10:55:11 PM
979 Views
Re: Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
- 19/11/2009 02:54:19 PM
1083 Views
Ok i have to say something or i will be killed
- 18/11/2009 11:30:38 PM
1167 Views
Considering I am going to die anyway...........
- 18/11/2009 11:36:14 PM
1065 Views
Have you completely gone off your bloody gourd?
- 19/11/2009 01:58:32 AM
949 Views
I suppose I actually have to write an analysis now..... Darned honor...... It'll be short though....
- 19/11/2009 02:38:22 AM
1361 Views
I have a proposition, that might be amenable to everyone
- 19/11/2009 02:53:04 AM
1196 Views
Whenever anyone asks for one more night, one more day...
- 19/11/2009 03:37:32 AM
1089 Views
But... that's the OPPOSITE of the intended reaction!
- 19/11/2009 04:12:02 AM
1160 Views
This right here is making me vote for you:
- 19/11/2009 03:16:00 PM
1114 Views
Fair enough
- 19/11/2009 05:33:28 PM
1133 Views
Re: Wreaking Havoc
- 19/11/2009 08:09:18 PM
1106 Views
Super-killing machine would be the coolest role ever
- 19/11/2009 10:53:04 PM
1049 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
- 19/11/2009 11:24:25 PM
1125 Views
Re: DEATH UNICORN!
- 20/11/2009 01:33:39 AM
980 Views
I want to be in that band.
- 20/11/2009 03:16:29 AM
945 Views
!!!
- 20/11/2009 04:18:07 PM
935 Views
YES.
- 20/11/2009 06:01:21 PM
1325 Views
Narwhals, Narwhals, swimming in the ocea, causin a commotion, Coz they are so awesome...
- 20/11/2009 09:30:09 PM
966 Views
I may just be digging myself a deep grave...
- 19/11/2009 08:37:38 PM
1019 Views
I dunno ... it's hard for me to say.
- 19/11/2009 11:10:55 PM
985 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
- 19/11/2009 11:12:33 PM
1167 Views
Umm ... this does not belong here. Whoopsies! *NM*
- 19/11/2009 11:23:40 PM
496 Views
beetnemesis has been Lynched.
- 20/11/2009 04:23:15 AM
932 Views
Lol Isaac didn't even vote!
- 20/11/2009 04:42:58 AM
1162 Views
Blackout
- 20/11/2009 11:21:48 PM
1289 Views
I'm off to explore the universe on my ethereal Death Unicorn- Farewell!
- 21/11/2009 12:59:20 AM
1281 Views


Better luck next time!
*NM*