Since this comes up, you can not have a game that is just town vs cult. The DFs achieve victory by killing people off, a cult by conversion. A DF kills a townie, a cult gets more by conversion, they turn someone into a lynch voter for them too, while keeping their effective NK by conversion. A cult therefore only is viable with a DF element, since cults lose the converter when they nominate a DF unknowingly for conversion.
You also have potential defections in cult vs town. Essentially, unless you got the cult in embryo, their victory is an absolute thing.
Example:
Day 1 has 12 players, 1 cult leader and 11 townies. A townie is lynched and someone converted on the first day, now 11-1 is 9-2, day 2 probably ends with a townie lynch, 7-3, the cult now has a powerful vote ability, ensuring a high prob of another townie lynch, day 4 begins 5-4, a lynch of a cult member is still unlikely, but would make day 5 begin 4-4, victory, barring that 3-5, cult victory again.
So unless we have a number of roles designed to combat cults, we can not possible have a cult vs crew without DF option, and those anti-cult roles have done us no favors by failing to alert us to the option formally.
Since the option of a cult only comes up to explain the lack of a NK, as opposed to cult and DF, we can dismiss this option.
Now, this whole mess is started up by nobody dying last night. This is silly. There are any number of reasons, forgetting my own evidence on the matter, to explain why nobody died.
1. Someone was docced and attacked, unlikely but not flat-random unlikely, the doc and the DFs are more likely to target higher profile players, bringing the odds of this occuring down to realistic values. Much better than the 1 in 14/15 the doc had of picking the right person randomly, or 1 in 15 if they could target themself. Atleast 1 in 10, maybe 1 in 3 or 4, pretty realistic really.
2. A roleblocker, that our RB's have tended to be DFs doesn't change the fact that RBs can and often are town. The odds off this are lower than the doc-NK scenario since the DF attacker is as likely, more likely even, to be a more obscure player. When I am a DF I have others do the killing because I consider myself likely to be tracked, it also isn't unusual for the actual killer to be killed in the attack or identified, so our high-profile (i.e. the notorious strategists) will avoid making the kill themselves, no point losing your principal tactician if things go bad. So the RB option is a lower chance, but not too low, a townie RB had a 1 in 14 odd of blocking an attack last night. hardly ridicolous.
3. A bulletproof vest. We have seen this role, had a mor eprominent player had this role as a one-shot, they might well employ it on night 1, figuring that assassins are most likely to go for them in the general day 1 randomness, which usually involves the assassination of the more senior players.
4. Inability to NK. The DFs might not be able to NK on night 1, this isn't very common, but also not rare either. IIRC in game 8 the vig and mafia don both had one-shot NK ability that could not be used on night 1.
I repeat my original comment by the way, I was acted on, it was interrupted. The nature of the action is unknown to me. It could have been a cult conversion, but I sincerely doubt that. Don't bother asking me about my own role or lack there of, by the way, I won't answer that under these circumstances, considering it a bad idea, unless I felt lynch-threatened and a lynch of me today is highly unliklely. I'd advise people not to speculate about it either.
With that out of the way, we have a pair of votes on the table, and a number of players who have been silent, I ask again for everyone to speak up, and not just and empty "I'm here" before you get modkilled, frankly I'm very suspicious of the people being silent too. Besides the fact that participation is expected in this game, your silence is anti-town.
You also have potential defections in cult vs town. Essentially, unless you got the cult in embryo, their victory is an absolute thing.
Example:
Day 1 has 12 players, 1 cult leader and 11 townies. A townie is lynched and someone converted on the first day, now 11-1 is 9-2, day 2 probably ends with a townie lynch, 7-3, the cult now has a powerful vote ability, ensuring a high prob of another townie lynch, day 4 begins 5-4, a lynch of a cult member is still unlikely, but would make day 5 begin 4-4, victory, barring that 3-5, cult victory again.
So unless we have a number of roles designed to combat cults, we can not possible have a cult vs crew without DF option, and those anti-cult roles have done us no favors by failing to alert us to the option formally.
Since the option of a cult only comes up to explain the lack of a NK, as opposed to cult and DF, we can dismiss this option.
Now, this whole mess is started up by nobody dying last night. This is silly. There are any number of reasons, forgetting my own evidence on the matter, to explain why nobody died.
1. Someone was docced and attacked, unlikely but not flat-random unlikely, the doc and the DFs are more likely to target higher profile players, bringing the odds of this occuring down to realistic values. Much better than the 1 in 14/15 the doc had of picking the right person randomly, or 1 in 15 if they could target themself. Atleast 1 in 10, maybe 1 in 3 or 4, pretty realistic really.
2. A roleblocker, that our RB's have tended to be DFs doesn't change the fact that RBs can and often are town. The odds off this are lower than the doc-NK scenario since the DF attacker is as likely, more likely even, to be a more obscure player. When I am a DF I have others do the killing because I consider myself likely to be tracked, it also isn't unusual for the actual killer to be killed in the attack or identified, so our high-profile (i.e. the notorious strategists) will avoid making the kill themselves, no point losing your principal tactician if things go bad. So the RB option is a lower chance, but not too low, a townie RB had a 1 in 14 odd of blocking an attack last night. hardly ridicolous.
3. A bulletproof vest. We have seen this role, had a mor eprominent player had this role as a one-shot, they might well employ it on night 1, figuring that assassins are most likely to go for them in the general day 1 randomness, which usually involves the assassination of the more senior players.
4. Inability to NK. The DFs might not be able to NK on night 1, this isn't very common, but also not rare either. IIRC in game 8 the vig and mafia don both had one-shot NK ability that could not be used on night 1.
I repeat my original comment by the way, I was acted on, it was interrupted. The nature of the action is unknown to me. It could have been a cult conversion, but I sincerely doubt that. Don't bother asking me about my own role or lack there of, by the way, I won't answer that under these circumstances, considering it a bad idea, unless I felt lynch-threatened and a lynch of me today is highly unliklely. I'd advise people not to speculate about it either.
With that out of the way, we have a pair of votes on the table, and a number of players who have been silent, I ask again for everyone to speak up, and not just and empty "I'm here" before you get modkilled, frankly I'm very suspicious of the people being silent too. Besides the fact that participation is expected in this game, your silence is anti-town.
Stand Back!! Im going to attempt science!!
Partaker of the Elixir of True seeing, and Yuna's most trusted advisor.
Partaker of the Elixir of True seeing, and Yuna's most trusted advisor.
Rafia in Space - Day 2 - Well....
- 07/11/2009 06:26:13 PM
2465 Views
Interesting turn of events.
- 07/11/2009 11:23:05 PM
1082 Views
It would matter which it was...
- 08/11/2009 03:07:02 AM
925 Views
First: Well done, doc/roleblocker. Second: Think we have a cult?
- 08/11/2009 07:57:48 AM
1157 Views
Should we decide on who to hypocop?
- 08/11/2009 08:04:24 AM
1033 Views
I think randomly is the way to go today.
- 08/11/2009 04:16:30 PM
1116 Views
Re: I think randomly is the way to go today.
- 08/11/2009 04:36:53 PM
1181 Views
Well, yeah, that's the small risk of hypocopping- and why everyone should try to be random
- 08/11/2009 09:11:59 PM
1183 Views
Yes, I thought it over and realized that without hypocopping we don't find the Mafia either. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 06:52:14 AM
450 Views
Can we do two hypocops?
- 09/11/2009 05:23:15 AM
1074 Views
I think there's probably about an equal chance of there being a roleblocker or a doc.
- 09/11/2009 01:34:02 PM
1084 Views
What if we have both?
- 09/11/2009 04:29:34 PM
964 Views
Right, let's get this started- Hypocop Thread
- 09/11/2009 03:26:21 PM
1039 Views
I investigated Isaac, and found him to be a devourer of children and kicker of puppies. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 09:30:24 PM
514 Views
But is he innocent or guilty?
*NM*
- 09/11/2009 09:31:40 PM
532 Views
*NM*
- 09/11/2009 09:31:40 PM
532 Views
It should be intuitively obvious to even a casual observer
. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 11:19:32 PM
495 Views
. *NM*
- 09/11/2009 11:19:32 PM
495 Views
Hypocop Table - Day 2, Complete
- 09/11/2009 06:26:22 PM
1173 Views
I investigated Darth katie and found her to be for the shadow *NM*
- 09/11/2009 10:40:11 PM
529 Views
i investigated fox and ravens and foud him innocent *NM*
- 10/11/2009 09:34:48 AM
562 Views
* found
- 10/11/2009 02:16:49 PM
1045 Views
Good coffee isn't made of mud.
- 10/11/2009 02:39:37 PM
1023 Views
Re: Good coffee isn't made of mud.
- 10/11/2009 07:45:06 PM
1043 Views
Mmm I love the smell of coffee.
- 10/11/2009 10:19:19 PM
1177 Views
I did what ever you do and Napolean is for the dark side of the force... *NM*
- 10/11/2009 01:08:10 AM
539 Views
Napole<b>o</b>n. I'm saving your life here.
*NM*
- 10/11/2009 08:10:08 AM
599 Views
*NM*
- 10/11/2009 08:10:08 AM
599 Views
Stop!
- 10/11/2009 10:12:26 AM
1049 Views
Re: Stop!
- 10/11/2009 10:21:46 AM
1045 Views
So you're saying that
- 10/11/2009 02:05:39 PM
1248 Views
Forget about it
- 10/11/2009 05:12:31 PM
1053 Views
Got new password, all is well
- 10/11/2009 05:13:37 PM
1112 Views
So, what next?
- 11/11/2009 07:06:37 AM
953 Views
Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
- 11/11/2009 06:15:33 PM
950 Views
Re: Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
- 11/11/2009 09:00:53 PM
1077 Views
Well, that doesn't really help.
- 11/11/2009 09:31:20 PM
1075 Views
And with no dead people...
- 11/11/2009 10:26:29 PM
952 Views
I'm definitely not convinced this makes Isaac innocent.
- 11/11/2009 11:36:06 PM
1151 Views
Well... this is essentially a Day 1 reboot. I suppose we could just do another random lynch
- 12/11/2009 03:44:22 AM
1180 Views
I guess.
- 12/11/2009 06:04:22 AM
1059 Views
Hm... ok, let's take a look at posting habits
- 12/11/2009 06:58:10 AM
1053 Views
I wasn't asking the roleblocker to claim. I just voiced the possibility. *NM*
- 13/11/2009 05:30:45 AM
596 Views
Questions about the hypocop
- 12/11/2009 10:17:35 PM
1335 Views
I see nothing wrong.
- 12/11/2009 11:34:10 PM
1071 Views
It probably should have been more random.
- 13/11/2009 12:05:11 AM
962 Views
Re: It probably should have been more random.
- 13/11/2009 12:39:52 AM
1209 Views
Okay.
- 13/11/2009 02:10:21 AM
1219 Views
To me it seems that from that Darth Katie and Issac are innocent...
- 13/11/2009 12:14:02 AM
1130 Views
Ok, I really think we should stop this before we do any more damage then has already been done...
- 13/11/2009 12:25:39 AM
1076 Views
I usually have to strangle the Day 1 No-lynch option, which makes me very visible
.
- 13/11/2009 04:32:28 AM
986 Views
.
- 13/11/2009 04:32:28 AM
986 Views
Actually...
- 13/11/2009 09:38:54 AM
1074 Views
The only reason I voted for him was cause Is aw his death as a win-win sutuation.
- 13/11/2009 06:13:03 PM
1022 Views
It seems to me
- 13/11/2009 01:49:32 AM
1019 Views
Well, I did notice that...
- 13/11/2009 04:37:43 AM
1205 Views
While that's true...
- 13/11/2009 05:28:54 AM
1131 Views
I meant no implication whatsoever. I was asked what I noticed, and I noticed that.
- 13/11/2009 06:55:18 AM
1208 Views
We should choose hypocopped people in the future to prevent events like this. *NM*
- 13/11/2009 06:09:18 AM
573 Views
I think that would limit the cop too much.
- 13/11/2009 09:37:49 PM
992 Views
I think it worked well in your gaem. Where we chose two, and hypocopped one of those. *NM*
- 14/11/2009 08:17:37 AM
481 Views
Yeah, but there were two definite suspects then.
- 14/11/2009 03:17:30 PM
991 Views
Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects. *NM*
- 14/11/2009 08:00:19 PM
655 Views
Re: Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects.
- 14/11/2009 09:00:24 PM
1135 Views
By the way...
- 13/11/2009 01:22:15 AM
1104 Views
Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
- 13/11/2009 06:11:30 PM
1057 Views
Re: Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
- 13/11/2009 06:22:05 PM
1002 Views
Yeah, I doubt we're going to find out what he was before the day ends.
- 13/11/2009 07:19:48 PM
1149 Views
Question
- 13/11/2009 08:11:43 PM
1261 Views
I guess the no night-kill is what has people uncertain.
- 13/11/2009 09:08:09 PM
1137 Views
I just don't like lynching people randomly.
- 13/11/2009 09:44:59 PM
1153 Views
Well, we didn't discuss it because, in the end, it almost didn't matter
- 13/11/2009 10:27:29 PM
996 Views
Alright, let's look at those votes then
- 14/11/2009 10:56:08 AM
1165 Views
Re: Alright, let's look at those votes then
- 14/11/2009 08:02:50 PM
1116 Views
I'm getting antsy
- 15/11/2009 02:46:48 AM
1108 Views
Why Ranagrande?
- 15/11/2009 03:01:00 AM
966 Views
Dunno. Gut feeling. Maybe because he killed me last game!
- 15/11/2009 08:03:09 AM
1050 Views
- 15/11/2009 08:03:09 AM
1050 Views
I'm getting kind of antsy too.
- 15/11/2009 03:56:41 PM
1187 Views
All right
- 15/11/2009 06:56:33 PM
1037 Views
It's up now.
- 15/11/2009 08:22:58 PM
1115 Views
Well, it does remind me of the MHael Steve incident a number of games back...
- 16/11/2009 05:57:11 AM
1028 Views
Yes, I've been thinking of game 3 too
- 16/11/2009 06:16:13 AM
1098 Views
Vote Table
- 15/11/2009 08:18:37 PM
1135 Views
I think you're right
- 15/11/2009 09:26:47 PM
1231 Views
Sure, I'll mount an accusation
- 15/11/2009 11:16:07 PM
1157 Views
Ok it semms I have to clarify a little...
- 15/11/2009 11:23:09 PM
1283 Views
Am I suspicious just because I haven't posted much, or is there a different reason? *NM*
- 17/11/2009 03:24:21 AM
642 Views
Quick defense
- 16/11/2009 05:52:58 AM
1132 Views
Also: I support hypocopping Fanatic Templar or ranagrande
- 16/11/2009 05:57:24 AM
1003 Views
I'm inclined to vote for beetnemesis.
- 16/11/2009 06:34:15 AM
1146 Views
I actually tend to agree here.
- 16/11/2009 07:07:48 PM
1164 Views
Psh. If I was a DF, I would have backed away from ranagrande as soon as people questioned it
- 17/11/2009 12:41:07 AM
1075 Views
But you're backing away from Ranagrande now.
- 17/11/2009 01:16:17 AM
1113 Views
I am not! Ranagrande is creepy!
- 17/11/2009 02:31:03 AM
1168 Views
You totally suggested we lynch Ranagrande.
- 17/11/2009 04:25:12 AM
1098 Views
Hm... ok, but that was really more idle discussion that a focused push for lynch
- 17/11/2009 05:50:44 AM
1038 Views
Oh! I remember what I wanted to say!
- 17/11/2009 02:44:30 AM
1098 Views
But why keep trying to divert attention to a Cult?
- 17/11/2009 03:35:28 AM
1075 Views
Honestly? I just thought it sounded cool. Also, it supported the "no night kill" thing
- 17/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
1260 Views
Cult vs crew is a cult win
- 18/11/2009 03:11:36 AM
1180 Views
Hm? Was someone saying there were no DFs?
- 18/11/2009 03:19:35 AM
977 Views
I think what some of us are looking for here...
- 18/11/2009 03:28:25 AM
997 Views
Ahem. *Raises hand on stack of Terry Pratchett's "The Truth"*
- 18/11/2009 05:46:09 AM
1031 Views
That's messed up
- 18/11/2009 05:50:01 AM
967 Views
I just finished rereading it last night
- 18/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
1053 Views
Not really, but there was a debate about whether there could be a cult AND DFs...
- 18/11/2009 04:41:33 AM
1110 Views
Okay, that clears things up. Thanks. *NM*
- 18/11/2009 05:14:04 AM
507 Views
It is an interesting conundrum.
- 17/11/2009 05:06:04 AM
1170 Views
P.S. I'm sorry if being indirectly called a lady is offensive to you.
- 17/11/2009 05:18:49 AM
1072 Views
- 17/11/2009 05:18:49 AM
1072 Views
It's like politics.
- 17/11/2009 06:31:04 PM
1152 Views
Honestly, I blame my new job
- 18/11/2009 05:52:28 AM
990 Views
Re: Honestly, I blame my new job
- 18/11/2009 09:23:34 AM
1003 Views
No...
- 18/11/2009 12:47:40 PM
1031 Views
actually
- 18/11/2009 01:15:00 PM
988 Views
Simply because you don't see any hard evidence is not enough of a reason not to vote.
- 18/11/2009 05:26:18 PM
1125 Views
I may be swayed to vote here because as FT or Isaac had said (i forget which),
- 18/11/2009 06:43:15 PM
1284 Views
I agree he looks pretty suspicious,
- 17/11/2009 03:39:18 AM
1137 Views
That would be a reasonable conclusion...
- 17/11/2009 04:54:47 AM
1159 Views
RBIRL 'til Thursday.
- 15/11/2009 11:10:49 PM
945 Views
reason why i voted for hopper yesterday
- 16/11/2009 03:22:22 AM
1147 Views
Well, any reason for voting for Hopper was basically a good reason.
- 16/11/2009 05:32:22 AM
1162 Views
RBIRL until Wednesday.
- 16/11/2009 02:09:34 PM
1071 Views
Didn't pass the test.
- 18/11/2009 03:09:29 PM
982 Views
Failed by one point, I might add. Curses. *NM*
- 18/11/2009 03:10:39 PM
582 Views
Apparently that both sucks and blows at the same time. But sorry man. Good luck on Monday. *NM*
- 18/11/2009 09:52:36 PM
530 Views
Actually people...
- 18/11/2009 08:53:08 PM
1119 Views
Re: Actually people...
- 18/11/2009 09:44:53 PM
1112 Views
Re: Actually people...
- 19/11/2009 02:36:59 PM
1065 Views
Re: Actually people...
- 19/11/2009 03:06:16 PM
1069 Views
Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
- 18/11/2009 10:55:11 PM
1054 Views
Re: Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
- 19/11/2009 02:54:19 PM
1158 Views
Ok i have to say something or i will be killed
- 18/11/2009 11:30:38 PM
1243 Views
Considering I am going to die anyway...........
- 18/11/2009 11:36:14 PM
1136 Views
Have you completely gone off your bloody gourd?
- 19/11/2009 01:58:32 AM
1027 Views
I suppose I actually have to write an analysis now..... Darned honor...... It'll be short though....
- 19/11/2009 02:38:22 AM
1431 Views
I have a proposition, that might be amenable to everyone
- 19/11/2009 02:53:04 AM
1268 Views
Whenever anyone asks for one more night, one more day...
- 19/11/2009 03:37:32 AM
1160 Views
But... that's the OPPOSITE of the intended reaction!
- 19/11/2009 04:12:02 AM
1233 Views
This right here is making me vote for you:
- 19/11/2009 03:16:00 PM
1182 Views
Fair enough
- 19/11/2009 05:33:28 PM
1192 Views
Re: Wreaking Havoc
- 19/11/2009 08:09:18 PM
1177 Views
Super-killing machine would be the coolest role ever
- 19/11/2009 10:53:04 PM
1121 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
- 19/11/2009 11:24:25 PM
1194 Views
Re: DEATH UNICORN!
- 20/11/2009 01:33:39 AM
1058 Views
I want to be in that band.
- 20/11/2009 03:16:29 AM
1021 Views
!!!
- 20/11/2009 04:18:07 PM
1007 Views
YES.
- 20/11/2009 06:01:21 PM
1398 Views
Narwhals, Narwhals, swimming in the ocea, causin a commotion, Coz they are so awesome...
- 20/11/2009 09:30:09 PM
1032 Views
I may just be digging myself a deep grave...
- 19/11/2009 08:37:38 PM
1086 Views
I dunno ... it's hard for me to say.
- 19/11/2009 11:10:55 PM
1054 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
- 19/11/2009 11:12:33 PM
1236 Views
Umm ... this does not belong here. Whoopsies! *NM*
- 19/11/2009 11:23:40 PM
529 Views
beetnemesis has been Lynched.
- 20/11/2009 04:23:15 AM
1002 Views
Lol Isaac didn't even vote!
- 20/11/2009 04:42:58 AM
1232 Views
Blackout
- 20/11/2009 11:21:48 PM
1376 Views
I'm off to explore the universe on my ethereal Death Unicorn- Farewell!
- 21/11/2009 12:59:20 AM
1355 Views


Better luck next time!
*NM*