If we're going to hypocop, then let's do it right, ditto any hypodoc or hyporole stuff, which I am against doing.
If we hypocop, then let me remind everyone that it is the result not the target that must be selected randomly. On day 2 the most likely investigatees will tend to be higher profile players and anyone who acted even a tad suspiciously. Thereafter it will tend to always be anyone who acted suspiciously. No one picks their target for a role action out of a hat. Consider the most probable scenario from last night, the doc decided to protect a player most likely to be assassinated, i.e. a big threat, the DFs picked a person to kill who would be a big threat, it's actually very probable for them to pick the same person, if it wasn't then the doc role would basically be a tiny upgrade on a vanilla. If you make a list of the five most dangerous players, odds are your list will be very similiar to most of the others' lists. Select your hypocop target off that list, because those are the people the cop most likely investigated, the doc most likely docced, etc. Include anyone who raised a flag yeserday for hypocop. Think about who you would have investigated, and select that person, you don't need to randomize your target, just the result. For that result, assume the DFs are around 1 in 3 of the remaining 14 players who aren't you. If you have a die lying around, 1-4 pips, innocent, 5 or 6, guilty. If you have a coin, and no dice, just make a list of four people, and get two different denomination coins, i.e. nickel and a penny. NHPH (Nickel Heads, penny heads) equals 1, (NHPT) penny tails is 2, NTPH 3, and NTPT (both tails) is 4.
And say guilty or innocent, it may well be the cop is actually getting a result of crew or imperial, or not imperial, etc, but with the now slim odds of a third party, let's assume all result basically said friend or foe and use the guilty/innocent format, the cop should do the same. Otherwise if the cop got 'crew' and posts so after a bunch 'innocent', he/she might single themselves out.
Our goal in hypocopping is to let the investigator leave a receipt of his nightly transactions without exposing himself to attack, a strictly random pattern of results off a list that includes high-prob investigatees is the best way to block any pattern analysis by the DFs.
Example (and my hypcop):
I don't know who is or isn't a DF, but I consider many players especially dangerous, if they'r eone of the DFs, I want them taken out pronto, more than their DF allies.I want a list of six targets because in my case I'm going to randomly select an investigatee from my list using a six-sided die, if I am notthe cop. My list includes the 'known threats' as I call them, people who I've been playing against for a long time and who are likely to see through my tricks and traps. In this game that's KAtie, FT, Fox, Gher, and Hobo - who also all voted for the lynch of Hopper, who was innocent (although 100% lemming so it's less valid then normal), a good DF doesn't let an opportunity pass so odds are most of them voted for Hopper. That's five and I'll round it out to 6 with beetnemesis, since he said something I at least initially considered suspicious, and many of you should be sticking my name on that 'very suspicious table' anyway. I assign them each a number 1-6 and roll, in this case I'd do this randomly this time even if I were a cop, because none of them really stand out and I don't trust my subconscious to make decisions for me sionce it usually says "Kill Gher!" I roll my die and get a 1
I investigate (or hypocop) #1, KAtie, if the cop, I wait for a result and post it to the hypocop table. If not, I roll a d6 (a die) and get a number, let's say I did this and the number was 4, by my previous 1 to 4 innnocent, 5 and 6 guilty, DK shows up innocent, and I post that.
Trust me, this is the best way to hypocop, it keeps patterns from showing.
If we hypocop, then let me remind everyone that it is the result not the target that must be selected randomly. On day 2 the most likely investigatees will tend to be higher profile players and anyone who acted even a tad suspiciously. Thereafter it will tend to always be anyone who acted suspiciously. No one picks their target for a role action out of a hat. Consider the most probable scenario from last night, the doc decided to protect a player most likely to be assassinated, i.e. a big threat, the DFs picked a person to kill who would be a big threat, it's actually very probable for them to pick the same person, if it wasn't then the doc role would basically be a tiny upgrade on a vanilla. If you make a list of the five most dangerous players, odds are your list will be very similiar to most of the others' lists. Select your hypocop target off that list, because those are the people the cop most likely investigated, the doc most likely docced, etc. Include anyone who raised a flag yeserday for hypocop. Think about who you would have investigated, and select that person, you don't need to randomize your target, just the result. For that result, assume the DFs are around 1 in 3 of the remaining 14 players who aren't you. If you have a die lying around, 1-4 pips, innocent, 5 or 6, guilty. If you have a coin, and no dice, just make a list of four people, and get two different denomination coins, i.e. nickel and a penny. NHPH (Nickel Heads, penny heads) equals 1, (NHPT) penny tails is 2, NTPH 3, and NTPT (both tails) is 4.
And say guilty or innocent, it may well be the cop is actually getting a result of crew or imperial, or not imperial, etc, but with the now slim odds of a third party, let's assume all result basically said friend or foe and use the guilty/innocent format, the cop should do the same. Otherwise if the cop got 'crew' and posts so after a bunch 'innocent', he/she might single themselves out.
Our goal in hypocopping is to let the investigator leave a receipt of his nightly transactions without exposing himself to attack, a strictly random pattern of results off a list that includes high-prob investigatees is the best way to block any pattern analysis by the DFs.
Example (and my hypcop):
I don't know who is or isn't a DF, but I consider many players especially dangerous, if they'r eone of the DFs, I want them taken out pronto, more than their DF allies.I want a list of six targets because in my case I'm going to randomly select an investigatee from my list using a six-sided die, if I am notthe cop. My list includes the 'known threats' as I call them, people who I've been playing against for a long time and who are likely to see through my tricks and traps. In this game that's KAtie, FT, Fox, Gher, and Hobo - who also all voted for the lynch of Hopper, who was innocent (although 100% lemming so it's less valid then normal), a good DF doesn't let an opportunity pass so odds are most of them voted for Hopper. That's five and I'll round it out to 6 with beetnemesis, since he said something I at least initially considered suspicious, and many of you should be sticking my name on that 'very suspicious table' anyway. I assign them each a number 1-6 and roll, in this case I'd do this randomly this time even if I were a cop, because none of them really stand out and I don't trust my subconscious to make decisions for me sionce it usually says "Kill Gher!" I roll my die and get a 1
I investigate (or hypocop) #1, KAtie, if the cop, I wait for a result and post it to the hypocop table. If not, I roll a d6 (a die) and get a number, let's say I did this and the number was 4, by my previous 1 to 4 innnocent, 5 and 6 guilty, DK shows up innocent, and I post that.
Trust me, this is the best way to hypocop, it keeps patterns from showing.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Rafia in Space - Day 2 - Well....
07/11/2009 06:26:13 PM
- 2100 Views
Interesting turn of events.
07/11/2009 11:23:05 PM
- 748 Views
It would matter which it was...
08/11/2009 03:07:02 AM
- 588 Views
Should we decide on who to hypocop?
08/11/2009 08:04:24 AM
- 681 Views
I think randomly is the way to go today.
08/11/2009 04:16:30 PM
- 786 Views
Re: I think randomly is the way to go today.
08/11/2009 04:36:53 PM
- 839 Views
Well, yeah, that's the small risk of hypocopping- and why everyone should try to be random
08/11/2009 09:11:59 PM
- 844 Views
Yes, I thought it over and realized that without hypocopping we don't find the Mafia either. *NM*
09/11/2009 06:52:14 AM
- 270 Views
Can we do two hypocops?
09/11/2009 05:23:15 AM
- 750 Views
I think there's probably about an equal chance of there being a roleblocker or a doc.
09/11/2009 01:34:02 PM
- 749 Views
What if we have both?
09/11/2009 04:29:34 PM
- 629 Views
Right, let's get this started- Hypocop Thread
09/11/2009 03:26:21 PM
- 686 Views
I investigated Isaac, and found him to be a devourer of children and kicker of puppies. *NM*
09/11/2009 09:30:24 PM
- 347 Views
But is he innocent or guilty? *NM*
09/11/2009 09:31:40 PM
- 359 Views
It should be intuitively obvious to even a casual observer . *NM*
09/11/2009 11:19:32 PM
- 342 Views
Hypocop Table - Day 2, Complete
09/11/2009 06:26:22 PM
- 803 Views
I investigated Darth katie and found her to be for the shadow *NM*
09/11/2009 10:40:11 PM
- 354 Views
i investigated fox and ravens and foud him innocent *NM*
10/11/2009 09:34:48 AM
- 403 Views
* found
10/11/2009 02:16:49 PM
- 690 Views
Good coffee isn't made of mud.
10/11/2009 02:39:37 PM
- 698 Views
Re: Good coffee isn't made of mud.
10/11/2009 07:45:06 PM
- 686 Views
Mmm I love the smell of coffee.
10/11/2009 10:19:19 PM
- 795 Views
I did what ever you do and Napolean is for the dark side of the force... *NM*
10/11/2009 01:08:10 AM
- 364 Views
Napole<b>o</b>n. I'm saving your life here. *NM*
10/11/2009 08:10:08 AM
- 441 Views
Stop!
10/11/2009 10:12:26 AM
- 706 Views
Re: Stop!
10/11/2009 10:21:46 AM
- 697 Views
So you're saying that
10/11/2009 02:05:39 PM
- 928 Views
Forget about it
10/11/2009 05:12:31 PM
- 719 Views
Got new password, all is well
10/11/2009 05:13:37 PM
- 763 Views
So, what next?
11/11/2009 07:06:37 AM
- 627 Views
Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
11/11/2009 06:15:33 PM
- 621 Views
Re: Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
11/11/2009 09:00:53 PM
- 724 Views
Well, that doesn't really help.
11/11/2009 09:31:20 PM
- 790 Views
And with no dead people...
11/11/2009 10:26:29 PM
- 647 Views
I'm definitely not convinced this makes Isaac innocent.
11/11/2009 11:36:06 PM
- 826 Views
Well... this is essentially a Day 1 reboot. I suppose we could just do another random lynch
12/11/2009 03:44:22 AM
- 842 Views
I guess.
12/11/2009 06:04:22 AM
- 754 Views
Hm... ok, let's take a look at posting habits
12/11/2009 06:58:10 AM
- 705 Views
I wasn't asking the roleblocker to claim. I just voiced the possibility. *NM*
13/11/2009 05:30:45 AM
- 425 Views
Questions about the hypocop
12/11/2009 10:17:35 PM
- 984 Views
I see nothing wrong.
12/11/2009 11:34:10 PM
- 717 Views
It probably should have been more random.
13/11/2009 12:05:11 AM
- 634 Views
Re: It probably should have been more random.
13/11/2009 12:39:52 AM
- 883 Views
To me it seems that from that Darth Katie and Issac are innocent...
13/11/2009 12:14:02 AM
- 776 Views
Ok, I really think we should stop this before we do any more damage then has already been done...
13/11/2009 12:25:39 AM
- 735 Views
I usually have to strangle the Day 1 No-lynch option, which makes me very visible .
13/11/2009 04:32:28 AM
- 667 Views
Actually...
13/11/2009 09:38:54 AM
- 766 Views
The only reason I voted for him was cause Is aw his death as a win-win sutuation.
13/11/2009 06:13:03 PM
- 691 Views
It seems to me
13/11/2009 01:49:32 AM
- 702 Views
Well, I did notice that...
13/11/2009 04:37:43 AM
- 856 Views
While that's true...
13/11/2009 05:28:54 AM
- 801 Views
I meant no implication whatsoever. I was asked what I noticed, and I noticed that.
13/11/2009 06:55:18 AM
- 883 Views
We should choose hypocopped people in the future to prevent events like this. *NM*
13/11/2009 06:09:18 AM
- 424 Views
I think that would limit the cop too much.
13/11/2009 09:37:49 PM
- 639 Views
I think it worked well in your gaem. Where we chose two, and hypocopped one of those. *NM*
14/11/2009 08:17:37 AM
- 322 Views
Yeah, but there were two definite suspects then.
14/11/2009 03:17:30 PM
- 634 Views
Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects. *NM*
14/11/2009 08:00:19 PM
- 494 Views
Re: Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects.
14/11/2009 09:00:24 PM
- 777 Views
By the way...
13/11/2009 01:22:15 AM
- 815 Views
Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
13/11/2009 06:11:30 PM
- 743 Views
Re: Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
13/11/2009 06:22:05 PM
- 683 Views
Yeah, I doubt we're going to find out what he was before the day ends.
13/11/2009 07:19:48 PM
- 790 Views
Question
13/11/2009 08:11:43 PM
- 872 Views
I guess the no night-kill is what has people uncertain.
13/11/2009 09:08:09 PM
- 801 Views
I just don't like lynching people randomly.
13/11/2009 09:44:59 PM
- 829 Views
Well, we didn't discuss it because, in the end, it almost didn't matter
13/11/2009 10:27:29 PM
- 664 Views
Alright, let's look at those votes then
14/11/2009 10:56:08 AM
- 827 Views
Re: Alright, let's look at those votes then
14/11/2009 08:02:50 PM
- 788 Views
I'm getting antsy
15/11/2009 02:46:48 AM
- 778 Views
Why Ranagrande?
15/11/2009 03:01:00 AM
- 638 Views
Dunno. Gut feeling. Maybe because he killed me last game!
15/11/2009 08:03:09 AM
- 716 Views
I'm getting kind of antsy too.
15/11/2009 03:56:41 PM
- 844 Views
All right
15/11/2009 06:56:33 PM
- 698 Views
It's up now.
15/11/2009 08:22:58 PM
- 755 Views
Well, it does remind me of the MHael Steve incident a number of games back...
16/11/2009 05:57:11 AM
- 665 Views
Yes, I've been thinking of game 3 too
16/11/2009 06:16:13 AM
- 776 Views
Vote Table
15/11/2009 08:18:37 PM
- 790 Views
I think you're right
15/11/2009 09:26:47 PM
- 851 Views
Sure, I'll mount an accusation
15/11/2009 11:16:07 PM
- 804 Views
Ok it semms I have to clarify a little...
15/11/2009 11:23:09 PM
- 951 Views
Am I suspicious just because I haven't posted much, or is there a different reason? *NM*
17/11/2009 03:24:21 AM
- 481 Views
Quick defense
16/11/2009 05:52:58 AM
- 796 Views
Also: I support hypocopping Fanatic Templar or ranagrande
16/11/2009 05:57:24 AM
- 675 Views
I'm inclined to vote for beetnemesis.
16/11/2009 06:34:15 AM
- 792 Views
I actually tend to agree here.
16/11/2009 07:07:48 PM
- 806 Views
Psh. If I was a DF, I would have backed away from ranagrande as soon as people questioned it
17/11/2009 12:41:07 AM
- 768 Views
But you're backing away from Ranagrande now.
17/11/2009 01:16:17 AM
- 799 Views
I am not! Ranagrande is creepy!
17/11/2009 02:31:03 AM
- 795 Views
You totally suggested we lynch Ranagrande.
17/11/2009 04:25:12 AM
- 762 Views
Hm... ok, but that was really more idle discussion that a focused push for lynch
17/11/2009 05:50:44 AM
- 683 Views
Oh! I remember what I wanted to say!
17/11/2009 02:44:30 AM
- 770 Views
But why keep trying to divert attention to a Cult?
17/11/2009 03:35:28 AM
- 775 Views
Honestly? I just thought it sounded cool. Also, it supported the "no night kill" thing
17/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
- 902 Views
Cult vs crew is a cult win
18/11/2009 03:11:36 AM
- 825 Views
Hm? Was someone saying there were no DFs?
18/11/2009 03:19:35 AM
- 645 Views
I think what some of us are looking for here...
18/11/2009 03:28:25 AM
- 673 Views
Ahem. *Raises hand on stack of Terry Pratchett's "The Truth"*
18/11/2009 05:46:09 AM
- 664 Views
That's messed up
18/11/2009 05:50:01 AM
- 626 Views
I just finished rereading it last night
18/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
- 691 Views
Not really, but there was a debate about whether there could be a cult AND DFs...
18/11/2009 04:41:33 AM
- 799 Views
It is an interesting conundrum.
17/11/2009 05:06:04 AM
- 853 Views
P.S. I'm sorry if being indirectly called a lady is offensive to you.
17/11/2009 05:18:49 AM
- 727 Views
It's like politics.
17/11/2009 06:31:04 PM
- 819 Views
Honestly, I blame my new job
18/11/2009 05:52:28 AM
- 700 Views
Re: Honestly, I blame my new job
18/11/2009 09:23:34 AM
- 708 Views
No...
18/11/2009 12:47:40 PM
- 693 Views
actually
18/11/2009 01:15:00 PM
- 661 Views
Simply because you don't see any hard evidence is not enough of a reason not to vote.
18/11/2009 05:26:18 PM
- 782 Views
I may be swayed to vote here because as FT or Isaac had said (i forget which),
18/11/2009 06:43:15 PM
- 930 Views
I agree he looks pretty suspicious,
17/11/2009 03:39:18 AM
- 803 Views
That would be a reasonable conclusion...
17/11/2009 04:54:47 AM
- 765 Views
RBIRL 'til Thursday.
15/11/2009 11:10:49 PM
- 597 Views
reason why i voted for hopper yesterday
16/11/2009 03:22:22 AM
- 794 Views
Well, any reason for voting for Hopper was basically a good reason.
16/11/2009 05:32:22 AM
- 821 Views
RBIRL until Wednesday.
16/11/2009 02:09:34 PM
- 720 Views
Didn't pass the test.
18/11/2009 03:09:29 PM
- 619 Views
Failed by one point, I might add. Curses. *NM*
18/11/2009 03:10:39 PM
- 410 Views
Apparently that both sucks and blows at the same time. But sorry man. Good luck on Monday. *NM*
18/11/2009 09:52:36 PM
- 354 Views
Actually people...
18/11/2009 08:53:08 PM
- 757 Views
Re: Actually people...
18/11/2009 09:44:53 PM
- 795 Views
Re: Actually people...
19/11/2009 02:36:59 PM
- 712 Views
Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
18/11/2009 10:55:11 PM
- 725 Views
Re: Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
19/11/2009 02:54:19 PM
- 817 Views
Ok i have to say something or i will be killed
18/11/2009 11:30:38 PM
- 902 Views
Considering I am going to die anyway...........
18/11/2009 11:36:14 PM
- 806 Views
Have you completely gone off your bloody gourd?
19/11/2009 01:58:32 AM
- 679 Views
I suppose I actually have to write an analysis now..... Darned honor...... It'll be short though....
19/11/2009 02:38:22 AM
- 1090 Views
I have a proposition, that might be amenable to everyone
19/11/2009 02:53:04 AM
- 963 Views
Whenever anyone asks for one more night, one more day...
19/11/2009 03:37:32 AM
- 828 Views
But... that's the OPPOSITE of the intended reaction!
19/11/2009 04:12:02 AM
- 898 Views
This right here is making me vote for you:
19/11/2009 03:16:00 PM
- 830 Views
Fair enough
19/11/2009 05:33:28 PM
- 854 Views
Re: Wreaking Havoc
19/11/2009 08:09:18 PM
- 822 Views
Super-killing machine would be the coolest role ever
19/11/2009 10:53:04 PM
- 740 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
19/11/2009 11:24:25 PM
- 849 Views
Re: DEATH UNICORN!
20/11/2009 01:33:39 AM
- 692 Views
I want to be in that band.
20/11/2009 03:16:29 AM
- 675 Views
!!!
20/11/2009 04:18:07 PM
- 665 Views
YES.
20/11/2009 06:01:21 PM
- 1045 Views
Narwhals, Narwhals, swimming in the ocea, causin a commotion, Coz they are so awesome...
20/11/2009 09:30:09 PM
- 703 Views
I may just be digging myself a deep grave...
19/11/2009 08:37:38 PM
- 755 Views
I dunno ... it's hard for me to say.
19/11/2009 11:10:55 PM
- 736 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
19/11/2009 11:12:33 PM
- 906 Views
Umm ... this does not belong here. Whoopsies! *NM*
19/11/2009 11:23:40 PM
- 368 Views
beetnemesis has been Lynched.
20/11/2009 04:23:15 AM
- 668 Views
Lol Isaac didn't even vote!
20/11/2009 04:42:58 AM
- 859 Views
Blackout
20/11/2009 11:21:48 PM
- 1053 Views
I'm off to explore the universe on my ethereal Death Unicorn- Farewell!
21/11/2009 12:59:20 AM
- 1037 Views