First, the easy part: Recall when Sammael threatens Demandred to stay out of his (Sammael's) way. Sammael thinks that events down south have Demandred's markings all over them. We are not told what Sammael meant by "events down south" nor are we told whether or not Sammael was correct.

In other words, we should be considering the possibility that Sammael was wrong. What if Demandred never was orchestrating events down south. Sammael has been known to be wrong on many occassions and Sammael's comment always seemed to me more of an attempt by Sammael to figure out where Demandred might be by luring Demandred into commenting on Sammael's threat.

I personally think Sammael had no idea where Demandred is located at and Sammael was frustrated by the turmoil in Murandy. Sammael then thought if he accused Demandred of interfering that Demandred (or Semirhage or Mesaana) might deny Sammael's accusation. Sammael was hoping he could get a response out of one of them so that he could judge whether or not events in Murandy really were the work of Demandred or some other force(s).

Again, I don't think Demandred actually is in Murandy. I think Sammael was just guessing and he guessed wrong.

Second, I agree with the above posters that Padan Fain is probably at work in Murandy. The best evidence of this is the super pack of darkhounds on the hunt. If they were after Perrin, Masema, or the Shaido we would have heard of it or seen it. The absence of evidence tells us the super pack was not hunting Perrin or Masema or the Shaido.

I can eliminate most of the other main characters at this point in the story for a very simple reason. All the main guys (except Lan) can travel. It would be absolutely futile to send Darkhounds after Rand (or anyone else who can travel or who has access to traveling) because the darkhounds would never be able to catch the trail when all of a sudden the trail ends and the prey is a thousand miles away. Thus, the darkhounds can only be after non-traveling people.

That only leaves possible targets as: Mat, Tuon, or Padan Fain. Mat has a gollum after him already. I suppose Mat could have a gollum and the darkhounds after him, but I don't think so. Tuon, like traveling channelers can get on a raken or to'raken and the darkhounds would lose her scent trail with no idea of where to go next. Thus, I think she should be eliminated. That leaves Padan Fain as the only probable target of the darkhounds. The question is whether or not Padan Fain's magic tricks will work on darkhounds like they do on Mydraal.

Padan Fain fits geographically as the target of the darkhounds because of his close proximity to the darkhounds when we saw them last near Perrin's camp.

Anyway, I agree with the original and other posters that something obviously is happening in Murandy. I don't think King Roedran orchestrated events all on his own. After Padan Fain's failure in Far Madding I think Padan Fain went north to Lugard for reasons yet to be revealed. You have to think too about Padan Fain's mission in life is to get Rand. I think Fain wants to force Rand to come for him again and the only way Fain knows how to do this is to establish a base of power and become a threat once more to Rand or Rand's allies. Fain chose the only power base left unoccupied by the Forsaken, namely Murandy.

I admit I still have no idea where Demandred is. My guesses for Demandred's whereabouts are either 1) leading an army from the Aisle of Madmen or 2) leading the trollocs. I don't see Moridin leading the trollocs at Tarmon Gaidon because we all know he will be busy doing other things (e.g. fighting Rand). I don't think Moridin has enough time to manage the trollocs. Somebody has to do that and that somebody could be Demandred. The army that Demandred says will be ready could simply be the trolloc army.