The biggest question is really what does North Korea see as crossing the Rubicon. I do believe there some obvious red lines that even North Korea won't cross, initially firing artillery or missiles at Seoul or crossing the DMZ toward the south - because those actions will blatantly lead to all out conflict.
That's true, although I don't feel the regime has any fear of collapse as long as they have guaranteed aid coming from China. And China won't cut off aid because of fear the regime would collapse.
That's why I feel it's important that we need to look at this situation calmly and plan our moves accordingly. As I said, this can easily slip from one's control. I do feel all regimes, no matter how bat-shit crazy and eccentric, have a strong self-preservation streak. After all, if they didn't care about their survival, they wouldn't last very long.
A manufactured crisis only remains a crisis for a while; the longer the situation drags on the closer it comes to becoming just a new status quo. If the North must continually increase the pressure just to manufacture a "new" crisis, at some point it will reach a point where the regime must go to war or collapse.
That's true, although I don't feel the regime has any fear of collapse as long as they have guaranteed aid coming from China. And China won't cut off aid because of fear the regime would collapse.
Additionally, the closer each "crisis" comes to actual war, the greater the chance of accidentally starting a full war - someone shoots a gun, artillery is fired in response, leading to return fire, then a natural escalation...
That's why I feel it's important that we need to look at this situation calmly and plan our moves accordingly. As I said, this can easily slip from one's control. I do feel all regimes, no matter how bat-shit crazy and eccentric, have a strong self-preservation streak. After all, if they didn't care about their survival, they wouldn't last very long.
Oh, by the way...has anyone noticed how close the Korean peninsula is to war?
- 24/05/2010 02:04:12 PM
1228 Views
I was wondering when something would be posted about this
- 24/05/2010 02:49:54 PM
920 Views
- 24/05/2010 02:49:54 PM
920 Views
But does North Korea really listen to China that much anymore?
- 24/05/2010 02:55:04 PM
864 Views
that might well be a good point
- 24/05/2010 03:20:32 PM
824 Views
The explaination I have heard...
- 24/05/2010 09:05:40 PM
872 Views
Kim made one of his rare trips outside of North Korea about two weeks ago.
- 26/05/2010 07:49:18 AM
823 Views
yah, it doesn't look to be a good situation
- 24/05/2010 02:50:08 PM
837 Views
If there were a war with North Korea the US has the resources to deal with it.
- 24/05/2010 02:56:39 PM
862 Views
mm. well I don't much like that either, to be honest.
- 24/05/2010 03:00:29 PM
835 Views
Still scary and you know that using those would escalate everything.
- 24/05/2010 03:26:12 PM
797 Views
Korea is directly in our sphere of influence
- 24/05/2010 03:37:18 PM
755 Views
I meant "we" in a personal sense, not a national sense.
- 24/05/2010 05:36:40 PM
911 Views
In a personal sense, we could hijack a nuclear silo and shoot an ICBM at Pyongyang.
- 24/05/2010 05:50:52 PM
729 Views
- 24/05/2010 05:50:52 PM
729 Views
That would totally blow my cover of being a nerdy little grandma.
- 24/05/2010 09:37:28 PM
755 Views
A part of me says just get it over with
- 24/05/2010 03:21:06 PM
732 Views
I agree that if war is inevitable, it is much better to start it at a time of our choosing.
- 24/05/2010 03:48:36 PM
894 Views
I'm trying not to. *NM*
- 24/05/2010 05:25:06 PM
315 Views
I try to block it out with thought's of a puppet singing "I'm So Ronery". *NM*
- 24/05/2010 10:59:23 PM
327 Views
No one wants to resume the Korean War.
- 24/05/2010 11:27:12 PM
871 Views
China does.
- 25/05/2010 12:29:11 AM
830 Views
No, they don't
- 25/05/2010 12:54:49 AM
840 Views
Well, it would be more accurate to say they want a conflict, yes.
- 25/05/2010 01:15:23 AM
844 Views
No, they don't
- 25/05/2010 01:24:17 AM
818 Views
I'm saying the Cold War isn't over, since it was never about capitalism vs. communism to begin.
- 25/05/2010 01:41:28 AM
856 Views
North Korea is not acting suicidal? Are you kidding?
- 25/05/2010 02:41:29 AM
782 Views
The internal political dynamic in North Korea is such that they constantly need a crisis.
- 25/05/2010 03:03:59 AM
810 Views
You are missing the main point.
- 25/05/2010 03:36:37 AM
855 Views
I'm not saying it's nothing new.
- 25/05/2010 03:57:40 AM
819 Views
Your response highlights the ultimate problem: the crisis will have to keep getting bigger.
- 25/05/2010 07:44:19 PM
768 Views
Yes, that is the danger.
- 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM
905 Views
Yes, I've been watching with morbid curiosity and a little sick feeling in my stomach.
- 25/05/2010 02:47:53 AM
865 Views
