Setting aside any and all conspiracy theories, I think the biggest thing to come out of Perrys collapse is the story I saw on PW a few weeks ago about a lot of people in the Tea Party taking a second look at Romney. Those who categorically reject Romney have transferred their enthusiasm to Cain fully intact, but there are enough who have not to nominate Romney, who is quite simply on a different level than all his primary opponents. It is like putting the Packers in the BCS poll: Even those who intensely dislike that choice must admit it dominates all others.

Cains spike is more about that than anything else; as you say, he has no money or organization, and lacks the high level party connections to develop any support beyond the Anybody but Romney brigade that the GOP primary is marginalizing every bit as much as I said it would. At the end of the day, the Republican base will show up to stop whichever Democrat they currently consider the Source of All Evil; knowing that, the Republican establishment will not let them pick a nominee the rest of America regards as a fanatic radical of dubious intelligence. That excludes nearly everyone in the GOP field except Romney; that the sanest most moderate second choices are probably Paul and Perry demonstrates just how radical the GOP has become. Bottom line is that when the old boy network party holds a primary the smart money will always be on the guy from the old boy network.