To my mind, they WILL attack. It's not a question of if, it's a question of when. If Netanyahu is smart, he will force the issue prior to the election because afterwards Barry won't help him at all, and he knows it. Late May seems the most likely time in my opinion. Netanyahu can say he gave sanctions almost 3 months more to work, and yet it's early enough that it affects the campaign in a major way in the US.

The Iranians will retaliate. The only question is whether they will actually attack any US assets, international shipping, etc. Although I agree with Admiral Dempsey that they are a "rational actor", they are becoming less rational with every day.

This isn't like the Greek debt default, where everyone was committed to a particular outcome because the others were too unpredictable. You can't count on Israeli and Iranian restraint.