That's true, but I don't think that's the right way to look at it.
Nate Send a noteboard - 07/11/2012 05:18:52 PM
The people who are becoming seniors used to be younger people. That's always been true, of course. Every generation that's ever grown old was once young. But if the youth of each generation push for slightly more social freedom, I don't think that trend is entirely dulled by age. I don't think that every young person who supports more freedoms and rights turns into a cynical old person who would automatically support a conservative outlook. Obviously there's a general trend whereby older people are typically more conservative relative to younger people, but in my mind the key is the word relative. The people who will be 65 in 2016 are 61 right now. The people who will be 65 in 2024 are 53 right now. And so on. I think the idea that the parties have to shift with the electorate will in small ways be affected by that.
The people who are seniors right now were raised in the 30s and 40s, when there were different values than today, and some of those are the values the Republican Party attempts to speak to. But the seniors of tomorrow will have been raised in the 50s. And the seniors after that will have been raised in the 60s. Values were shifting throughout that time, and I think that any political party that wants to have broad appeal will need to in some ways anticipate and shift with that. And of course, at some point the top-heavy population graph will shift and seniors of any generation will be a smaller relative proportion of the total electorate again than they are today, so even if somehow all seniors continue to be more religious and conservative (which may be the case, but my instincts tell me it will be a diminishing trend), there will be fewer of them once the baby boomers pass through seniority and out the other side. That's probably 30 years out still, but I think it speaks to the idea that the Republican Party can't continue to endorse hard-line religous values because they will be going out of favor with older people as well as younger people in due time.
Damn, I wrote way too much about that, and I'm not even that attached to the idea. Sorry if I sort of Joeled it up on you.
The people who are seniors right now were raised in the 30s and 40s, when there were different values than today, and some of those are the values the Republican Party attempts to speak to. But the seniors of tomorrow will have been raised in the 50s. And the seniors after that will have been raised in the 60s. Values were shifting throughout that time, and I think that any political party that wants to have broad appeal will need to in some ways anticipate and shift with that. And of course, at some point the top-heavy population graph will shift and seniors of any generation will be a smaller relative proportion of the total electorate again than they are today, so even if somehow all seniors continue to be more religious and conservative (which may be the case, but my instincts tell me it will be a diminishing trend), there will be fewer of them once the baby boomers pass through seniority and out the other side. That's probably 30 years out still, but I think it speaks to the idea that the Republican Party can't continue to endorse hard-line religous values because they will be going out of favor with older people as well as younger people in due time.
Damn, I wrote way too much about that, and I'm not even that attached to the idea. Sorry if I sort of Joeled it up on you.
Warder to starry_nite
Chapterfish — Nate's Writing Blog
http://chapterfish.wordpress.com
Chapterfish — Nate's Writing Blog
http://chapterfish.wordpress.com
What next for Romney and the Republican party?
07/11/2012 03:51:50 PM
- 1070 Views
In my view, more moderation is needed.
07/11/2012 04:17:05 PM
- 605 Views
Pretty sure seniors are growing MORE numerous, not less. You're probably right about the rest. *NM*
07/11/2012 05:03:17 PM
- 606 Views
That's true, but I don't think that's the right way to look at it.
07/11/2012 05:18:52 PM
- 619 Views
Yeah, I hear what you're saying, and I agree with the overall point.
07/11/2012 07:52:33 PM
- 889 Views
Libertarian is the way to go IMO.
07/11/2012 05:19:29 PM
- 548 Views
totally agree, i was quite disappointed Johnson didn't get better results *NM*
07/11/2012 06:15:09 PM
- 312 Views
I'd say they're pretty much done
07/11/2012 07:54:44 PM
- 554 Views
I'm not sure about that.
07/11/2012 08:04:33 PM
- 687 Views
Again, the numbers you cited will continue to shrink every year.
07/11/2012 08:25:21 PM
- 1168 Views
They're through. They've been utterly crushed, demolished, and annihilated after last night.
07/11/2012 10:34:47 PM
- 637 Views
Well Romney is retiring but no the GOP is hardly 'done'
08/11/2012 12:51:44 AM
- 522 Views
I do hope the Republican party have the same lax attitude, I love seeing them lose *NM*
08/11/2012 12:46:32 PM
- 255 Views
I imagine lots of idiots feel the same way on both sides about both parties *NM*
08/11/2012 11:05:29 PM
- 278 Views
If you're relying on the democrats crashing and burning
09/11/2012 02:45:41 PM
- 577 Views
the dems played the "wait for the repubs to crash and burn" strategy and it worked out ok this year
09/11/2012 05:01:53 PM
- 628 Views
Off topic, but is your Shift key broken?
09/11/2012 05:47:12 PM
- 538 Views
do you have similar problems when talking to people with weird hair color or clothes IRL?
09/11/2012 07:09:24 PM
- 510 Views
The Dems learned their lesson from the Gore campaign
09/11/2012 06:25:23 PM
- 629 Views
i beg to differ
09/11/2012 07:22:40 PM
- 480 Views
The facts speak for themselves
09/11/2012 07:46:20 PM
- 658 Views
Re: The facts speak for themselves
11/11/2012 01:13:05 AM
- 610 Views
i'm quite curious about one thing, since i know you're such a numbers guy
11/11/2012 02:01:31 PM
- 527 Views
Re: i'm quite curious about one thing, since i know you're such a numbers guy
11/11/2012 05:48:09 PM
- 798 Views
I've also got a question for you
11/11/2012 02:16:07 PM
- 518 Views
Re: I've also got a question for you
11/11/2012 04:51:55 PM
- 558 Views
Re: I've also got a question for you
11/11/2012 05:48:52 PM
- 662 Views
There's also the fake or exaggeration aspect that might be in play but I can't judge that
11/11/2012 06:44:16 PM
- 1029 Views
I think you were taking that statement rather literally
11/11/2012 07:36:14 PM
- 566 Views
I took it as a literal statement, the language implied as much to me...
11/11/2012 08:45:16 PM
- 639 Views
Oh, I can absolutely count on them crahsing and burning, that's a given, happens to both regularly *NM*
09/11/2012 06:28:51 PM
- 302 Views
You can't count on exploiting that
09/11/2012 06:39:47 PM
- 671 Views
'Mistakes' is subjective, sometimes you have to play your hand
11/11/2012 01:09:31 AM
- 536 Views
how are 300+ EVs "the skin of his teeth"?
08/11/2012 05:46:51 PM
- 565 Views
Because he barely won them? *NM*
08/11/2012 11:06:14 PM
- 243 Views
only OH, NC and FL are within 2% margin, i'd hardly call that "barely won"
08/11/2012 11:25:54 PM
- 562 Views
What makes you think Hillary won't be running?
08/11/2012 06:07:38 PM
- 533 Views
hillary has stated time and again she is done when she steps down as sec'y of state
08/11/2012 11:27:56 PM
- 501 Views
While I agree with the overall point that the Republican party isn't done by any means
08/11/2012 11:53:12 PM
- 473 Views
Romney is done; the last defeated nominee to be renominated was Nixon.
08/11/2012 04:53:52 PM
- 743 Views