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Let's talk about influenza outbreaks in the USA - copied from my post on Facebook EDIT damookster Send a noteboard - 02/03/2020 05:47:12 PM

Most people don't like history. (RAFO users excepted) It makes their head hurt. Or it interferes with their perceptions of uniqueness. But since disabusing such notions is one of my favorite pastimes, here is a history lesson I'd like to share on influenza outbreaks that have occurred in my lifetime. All citations are from the CDC website.

1957 - 1958 The Hong Kong Flu
In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.

1968 - Hong Kong Part 2
The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift.

2009 - The Swine Flu, a New Flu Virus
The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

The following comments are mine.
By contrast, as of today there have been 88 validated cases of coronavirus in the USA and 2 confirmed deaths. The President has already declared a National Health Emergency. In 2009 the Swine Flu emerged in April. Then President Obama declared a National Health Emergency in October, by which point the USA had over 2,000 confirmed deaths. This is not a criticism of the previous President. Rather of our current society and it's fascination with fear-mongering.

To sum up: (USA numbers only) Hong Kong 1, >100k deaths. Hong Kong 2, >100k deaths. Swine flu, 12,500 deaths. Coronavirus, so far 2.
Wow, let's panic!

EDIT - 4 more coronavirus deaths reported today in Washington State, bringing the current total to 6. All have been in Washington, 5 in King County and 1 in Snohomish County.

Mook

*MySmiley*



"Bustin' makes me feel good!"

Ghostbusters, by Ray Parker Jr.
This message last edited by damookster on 02/03/2020 at 08:02:32 PM
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Let's talk about influenza outbreaks in the USA - copied from my post on Facebook EDIT - 02/03/2020 05:47:12 PM 450 Views
This post is going to age poorly - 02/03/2020 08:27:24 PM 199 Views
Perhaps it will, perhaps it won't - 02/03/2020 08:57:54 PM 203 Views
This is why you can not be neutral - 02/03/2020 09:33:08 PM 183 Views
The panic isn't wholly unwarranted... - 03/03/2020 06:20:23 AM 197 Views
IIRC, it was originally believed the H1N1 virus in 2009 was the Spanish Flu come around again. - 03/03/2020 12:56:45 PM 203 Views
Italy has a large sample size and have 5% fatally rate - 12/03/2020 06:21:02 PM 262 Views
Age is another factor. But quality of medical care is not. - 12/03/2020 06:29:34 PM 176 Views
What I am most curious is to understand how many have been infected with the virus actually. - 03/03/2020 05:54:10 PM 203 Views
Indeed - 03/03/2020 06:10:40 PM 189 Views
How many people never develop any symptoms at all? - 04/03/2020 05:43:16 PM 186 Views
Take a trip to Singapore - 04/03/2020 06:03:08 PM 190 Views
There are people with the virus without a fever - 04/03/2020 06:17:09 PM 200 Views
You may want that knowledge but no one has that knowledge - 04/03/2020 11:03:18 PM 181 Views
So on May 1st, and May 30th we will know if this post age poorly or not. - 07/03/2020 05:42:19 AM 188 Views
Like George Carlin - 07/03/2020 02:47:13 PM 181 Views
Comparing influenza to Covid19 has little to no value - 12/03/2020 01:55:21 PM 248 Views

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