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This is why you can not be neutral Roland00 Send a noteboard - 02/03/2020 09:33:08 PM

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Right now the morbidity seems high because we have no clue how many mild or asymptomatic cases there have been. Nor will we until it's all over.

Both the Hong Kong virus and the Swine Flu were more contagious than the typical flu. Both were also new variations.


This is why you can not be neutral, saying maybe it will maybe it will not is a faux neutrality saying A and B are equal costs. But since human lives are irreplaceable, you can not undo death, then wasting money, wasting attention, wasting concern is the true prudent and conservative action to perform. For getting it wrong has irreplaceable consequences.

This is scary stuff for you can not be truly prudent or vigilant as an individual instead it is about social trust, social institutions, and so on in order to prepare for these catastrophes you must be comfortable with waste, with people blaming you for action, for a black swan even is far worse. And when a black swan event occurs you will still be scapegoated no matter if you did 98% right and the 2% wrong there was no way for you to know.

But it is better to fail with your boots on, than to fail with your pants off.

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Let's talk about influenza outbreaks in the USA - copied from my post on Facebook EDIT damookster - 02/03/2020 05:47:12 PM 449 Views
This post is going to age poorly Roland00 - 02/03/2020 08:27:24 PM 199 Views
Perhaps it will, perhaps it won't damookster - 02/03/2020 08:57:54 PM 203 Views
This is why you can not be neutral Roland00 - 02/03/2020 09:33:08 PM 183 Views
Mookie how familiar are you with the Pandora Box myth?The original jar story is ithalf full or empty Roland00 - 02/03/2020 09:36:42 PM 185 Views
Not sure of the relevance but I'm quite sure you'll tell me. damookster - 02/03/2020 10:07:47 PM 187 Views
The panic isn't wholly unwarranted... fionwe1987 - 03/03/2020 06:20:23 AM 196 Views
IIRC, it was originally believed the H1N1 virus in 2009 was the Spanish Flu come around again. damookster - 03/03/2020 12:56:45 PM 203 Views
Italy has a large sample size and have 5% fatally rate random thoughts - 12/03/2020 06:21:02 PM 262 Views
Age is another factor. But quality of medical care is not. fionwe1987 - 12/03/2020 06:29:34 PM 175 Views
What I am most curious is to understand how many have been infected with the virus actually. The Shrike - 03/03/2020 05:54:10 PM 203 Views
Indeed damookster - 03/03/2020 06:10:40 PM 189 Views
How many people never develop any symptoms at all? Tom - 04/03/2020 05:43:16 PM 186 Views
Take a trip to Singapore damookster - 04/03/2020 06:03:08 PM 189 Views
There are people with the virus without a fever Tom - 04/03/2020 06:17:09 PM 200 Views
You may want that knowledge but no one has that knowledge Roland00 - 04/03/2020 11:03:18 PM 181 Views
Right. And the more there are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers, the worse it can get fionwe1987 - 07/03/2020 12:35:33 PM 176 Views
So on May 1st, and May 30th we will know if this post age poorly or not. Roland00 - 07/03/2020 05:42:19 AM 188 Views
Like George Carlin damookster - 07/03/2020 02:47:13 PM 181 Views
Comparing influenza to Covid19 has little to no value random thoughts - 12/03/2020 01:55:21 PM 248 Views
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