There are good reasons to push for a lynch on day 1, but we do not benefit from a dead townie, so it's major advantage is that when we go no lynch a lot it yanks teeth from the threat to go after people who aren't assisting us in finding info. We do not absolutely have to lop of someone's head on day 1 just to prove we're willing to.



Give Nothing? You think it's a freakish coincidence that we've never killed a DF on day 1 of a single game I've been a DF in? Never even came close. Decreasing our number of chances for a kill is not a bad thing, for the same reason a weapon set to single shot is better than one on full auto, especially when firing at a crowd composed mostly of people you don't want to hit. By this logic, no vig should ever miss a chance to make a night kill. If there are X players, his odds of killing a DF are better than random because he'll always be shooting a X-1 instead of X, since he's not a DF. Also, you're prior demonstrations ignore that night does not belong to the scummers, it belongs to those with night actions, which usually includes more townies than scum.



You mean when I copped him that night? Or when I pointed out near the beginning of the day that we were doing to many no lynches, and it was causing a lot of shy voters.



I can list of a number of reasons why it was the right move at the time, an action isn't mistake just because later info makes it the wrong one, let me remind you, I did cop him and get a guilty hit back. Had it gone one to day 2, I likely would have been able to use that to first isolate a number of people as prob-town and prob-scum, then get a lynch.



Yes, that's rather expected, but I think you should probably take moment to remind yourself that odds are most players will rightfully interpret this as you simply voting from an opportunity to do so, not from any legitimate reason to think I'm a DF.



I did give reasons, you're ignoring them. You're also, with your vote, blatant ignoring something else: If I am a DF, how do I possibly profit from this? Considering I just said, and the evidence is entirely on my side, that every time I've been a DF I've viewed a day 1 lynch as a free kill. What, am I now a strategic incompetent, sacrificing one of my best tools? Or maybe it's exactly as I said, I've never corrected this because I do view day 1 no lynches as usually a bad idea and the two times I was town when it mattered I had good lynch candidates and didn't want to give shy-voters a reason to back out.



The voting record used to be very handy, regrettably its not very common of late for the day 1 record to indicate DF-dom, last game on day 1 a townie was lynched and only one of the four DFs voted for him, vote records can be useful, but to be blunt, a dead townie he is not acting anti-town is not worth a single vote-record. Also, again, as I've said, it is when you think there is a high probability of two factions that it stops being a great idea, because scummers can easily vote for each other and NK each other. We don't learn too much in that situation.



There are ways to get a vote record without killing someone, you know that, a dead townie by themself is not wort the record in a case like this, and you are ignoring much of what I said, because you want a chance to lynch me, or you'd note that my exceptions are exactly what you just said, voting for people who smell of scum or anti-town. I never, ever said we should no lynch when we have reasonable candidates. But what do you suggest? Hey let's lynch Napoleon because he voted for me, or me because I OMGUS'd him and pointed out that I believe there are rare occasions where a day 1 no lynch can potentially make sense? Maybe we can whack Talic because because beet thinks one of his five settings indicates piracy? No, I have also not suggested we no lynch today, I said that if we have two NK factions it is a potential possibility. Your evidence on me right now is at best, 'holds an incorrect view', yet I maintain it, there are situations in which it may be an acceptable, even preferable course. I win a lot because I never discard any idea or tactic out of hand, I examine it in detail and figure out if it can be used in spite of it's weaknesses. Besides which, as I indicated in the header, regardless of whether or not it is always bad, or maybe sometimes useful, we have a lot of new players, and they need to know why, not just 'because we say so'. Situations change, in recent games the DFs have adapted, they know the vote record can condemn them, and so they adapt, we need to too. And that means examining our options.




This is completely wrong? You said above you don't support random lynches, if you remove people who don't smell of scum or anti-town, all you have is random. And I do treat players as innocent until at least indicated guilty, most of them are. I don't mind purging anti-town players, but by this logic, again, the vig kills on night 1. Yes, normally it is in our best interest to lynch, and I firmly believe in lynching if we have scummer or anti-town or anti-game behavior, in the absence of that - very rare - then the no lynch is plausible as an option. You keep ignoring every qualifier I put on it and acting as though my saying it's up for discussion means I said 'yes, we must vote to no lynch right now!', and it's either because you just want me lynched, regardless of your or my alignment, or your scum and you don't think you can get a NK on me.




Saying it doesn't make it true, you can't run reasonable stats to predict with when you don't know the elements involved, and we don't. If we have good reason to think we're in a classic, all vanilla and chocolate with a single cop, then yes, it is almost invariably in our best interests to lynch. Given individual scenarios, I can show you how random lynch on day 1 can in cases hurt the town, you are also ignoring that I've pointed out that these kind of thin day 1 lynches posed zero threat to the DFs in the past. There's not a single new player in this game, that means there's not a single player who doesn't know the vote record can screw them if they pile on a townie lynch. It may still help us, every little bit of info can, but we can't just whack of people's heads for no reason at all, heck, that is anti-game, because the game is about deduction, about evidence and defense, what defense will someone mount if they realize that they're the one who did something that could barely be interpreted as anti-town or scummy? They're dead, they know it, because unless they can show someone else is more guilty-looking you'll lop their head off no matter how good their defense is. Just leaving it as an option gives scummers a reason to defend their own because they think there is a decent chance they might preserve them, otherwise, it's bus-city. There are always advantages to almost every tactic, the vast majority of the time a lynch is in our best interest and we do find a good reason to target someone, but we don't need to throw the idea out out of hand. You've just said even discussing it is grounds for a lynch, or is just because I said it?






Gain: single scummer faction gets no lynch of a townie on day 1, cop cops one of them, docs blocks their kill.

Gain: Two NK factions, no lynch, one of them, or both, target the other

Gain: Cop clears someone as prob or def town, or finds a guilty, a townie dies, but not two.

It all depends on the circumstance, usually it's not a good idea, a wasted chance, but sometimes it makes more sense to hold your shot for a better chance. In a single NK game every townie represents half a day of play, or half a chance for a lynch, it makes sense to lynch when you have some decent evidence of anti-town or scummy behavior, if not, no, keep pressing, most of the time - which is why I said our flexible deadlines eliminate much of the need - you can keep pressing all the way to the end, so a no lynch waste valuable game day, but this need not always be the case, often as a scummer you can press into that void of slump and exhaustion and drag a lynch off on slim reasoning, people will vote for almost anything just to get the day over, sometimes long days result in more info coming out than you want to, roles get exposed or others claim to avoid being a random target. A drop of vanilla a day keeps the NK away.

Finally, over and over, why? IF I am a DF why have I said all this? Do you deny that if I were a DF it would be in my interest to have a day 1 lynch? No one is likely to die right now to explain this away as a desperate gamble to save them. Don't you think I'd maybe try a normal defense or distraction first? And who am I defending? Myself from Napoleon's random vote? Oh, yes that made me feel endangered, Napoleon from my own OMGUS vote? Oh, I know, Talic from Beetnemesis's vote, because me and Talic are DF buddies and I couldn't think of anyway to shake off the ironclad evidence that one of his five settings proves he's a pirate, and not a budweiser frog or Duffman.