Gher's question should have netted something, yet when you remove me and rana, who were, at least in my case and I assume his too, basically waiting to see if anyone came up hot before pointing out the flaw, responses were very fast and universal. 6 of 13 answered within the first 3 hours, FT was next and posted in his normal time window, and the next three, Stephen, Yuna, and Bergioyn, are all in time zones that would have been very late when the question was asked and answered pretty much in their normal window. That's 10, plus me and rana, who if scum acted a bit oddly by pointing out the error when one could go with the flow and regardless can't really be indicated from delay. So... nobody sticks out, and someone should have, we should have had at least one heel dragger who didn't think of it.
Explanations... first and least likely, we have no PC scum, the scum are NPC or some particularly weird dynamic is in play... this may not be quite as improbable as it sounds, I had living non-player(s) named in my intro and I doubt that I was the only one, it is unlikely but possible the baddies are those NPCs.
The most probable is that one of the scummers realized that lie detectors are rare and most night actions never get targeted at a given player, so the threat was minimal whereas not answering was dangerous, and the others followed that lead. It's not too hard to consider the dangers involved even if you don't see the out from informed language twisting. Yet it really seems like there should be a delay, yet the responses appear to have filed in mostly as soon as people saw the question, which is why I raise the NPC villain role, even though my own NPC(s) named seem improbable candidates.
Assuming we're not essentially re-enacting some version of Shirley Jackson's The Lottery, we definitely came up with an empty net on the town alignment search. We might be able to give a light pump to the earliest responders, yet the two earliest responders also dropped their town roles as lawyer and farmer and I view that as more making them evened out then prob town, though realistically anti-town actions of that sort are seperate from scummer actions. Gher, as the poser of the question and having gone to some visible effort to write it lie-proof, along with calling a halt 'job' disclosures, is looking fairly townie right now.
Anyway, my gut's telling me we have 3 scummers and our ideal list is from the following right now:
beetnemesis
?
Yunalesca
Hobo
Fanatic-Templar
Bergioyn
Stephen
These 7 all answered in a window of time I consider sufficient to have thought out the downsides of not responding versus improbability of being lie detected, and are heightened suspects... now the other 5 are not clear, let me point out a few things:
Gher - For those who are newer or may have forgotten, Gher's a very experienced Dark Lord, and he's pretty good at it, it is entirely possible he created such a question knowing of a flaw and his allies went along with him... I consider this improbable however, due to the nature of the exploit in wording.
Fox - Fox is heavily primed to know the weaknesses of Lie Detectors, beyond his recent false claim as a lie detector he's been around a long time during a lot of our philosophical chats on advanced scummery.
Scott - This is not his first time playing mafia, so the newbie aspect doesn't apply as a strong safe.
Ranagrande - Probably one of the most treacherous and tactically skilled players we have, speaking as someone who is both well equipped to say that and has seen his scheming up close, it is entirely possible he could have decided that someone would eventually see the flaw and if he is scum all his allies had already said yes, pointing it out would garner him some prob-townie-ness and ensure the mod knew of the language loophole.
Isaac - I of course, never answered, and my victory condition says nothing about winning with the town, though I believe I am a townie, and I seriously doubt I am the only one whose victory condition did not say something straightforward like "Win with town", my RM never mentions mafia, and never mentions a VC dependent on town victory, though it is a legitimate probable interpretation. I would not have answered the question anyway, but I could not have actually done so truthfully, and again, I'd bet other players if they examined their RMs would see similar questionable VC Phrasing.
Anyway, in spite of this I believe are center 7 as opposed to our 5 outliers are our best place to look for scum today.
Explanations... first and least likely, we have no PC scum, the scum are NPC or some particularly weird dynamic is in play... this may not be quite as improbable as it sounds, I had living non-player(s) named in my intro and I doubt that I was the only one, it is unlikely but possible the baddies are those NPCs.
The most probable is that one of the scummers realized that lie detectors are rare and most night actions never get targeted at a given player, so the threat was minimal whereas not answering was dangerous, and the others followed that lead. It's not too hard to consider the dangers involved even if you don't see the out from informed language twisting. Yet it really seems like there should be a delay, yet the responses appear to have filed in mostly as soon as people saw the question, which is why I raise the NPC villain role, even though my own NPC(s) named seem improbable candidates.
Assuming we're not essentially re-enacting some version of Shirley Jackson's The Lottery, we definitely came up with an empty net on the town alignment search. We might be able to give a light pump to the earliest responders, yet the two earliest responders also dropped their town roles as lawyer and farmer and I view that as more making them evened out then prob town, though realistically anti-town actions of that sort are seperate from scummer actions. Gher, as the poser of the question and having gone to some visible effort to write it lie-proof, along with calling a halt 'job' disclosures, is looking fairly townie right now.
Anyway, my gut's telling me we have 3 scummers and our ideal list is from the following right now:
beetnemesis
?
Yunalesca
Hobo
Fanatic-Templar
Bergioyn
Stephen
These 7 all answered in a window of time I consider sufficient to have thought out the downsides of not responding versus improbability of being lie detected, and are heightened suspects... now the other 5 are not clear, let me point out a few things:
Gher - For those who are newer or may have forgotten, Gher's a very experienced Dark Lord, and he's pretty good at it, it is entirely possible he created such a question knowing of a flaw and his allies went along with him... I consider this improbable however, due to the nature of the exploit in wording.
Fox - Fox is heavily primed to know the weaknesses of Lie Detectors, beyond his recent false claim as a lie detector he's been around a long time during a lot of our philosophical chats on advanced scummery.
Scott - This is not his first time playing mafia, so the newbie aspect doesn't apply as a strong safe.
Ranagrande - Probably one of the most treacherous and tactically skilled players we have, speaking as someone who is both well equipped to say that and has seen his scheming up close, it is entirely possible he could have decided that someone would eventually see the flaw and if he is scum all his allies had already said yes, pointing it out would garner him some prob-townie-ness and ensure the mod knew of the language loophole.
Isaac - I of course, never answered, and my victory condition says nothing about winning with the town, though I believe I am a townie, and I seriously doubt I am the only one whose victory condition did not say something straightforward like "Win with town", my RM never mentions mafia, and never mentions a VC dependent on town victory, though it is a legitimate probable interpretation. I would not have answered the question anyway, but I could not have actually done so truthfully, and again, I'd bet other players if they examined their RMs would see similar questionable VC Phrasing.
Anyway, in spite of this I believe are center 7 as opposed to our 5 outliers are our best place to look for scum today.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Mafia 21: Sunrise and Spelling
- 28/01/2011 06:19:23 AM
4600 Views
Got my role and stuff
- 28/01/2011 04:03:05 PM
1722 Views
All right then, first line of inquiry: Are you a person?
- 29/01/2011 12:24:04 AM
1773 Views
I bet it's going to turn out that there is no Mafia
- 30/01/2011 01:37:06 AM
1760 Views
What makes you think that? *NM*
- 30/01/2011 01:54:27 AM
1051 Views
Because DK is obviously an artistic soul, who wants to hold a mirror up to reality
- 30/01/2011 05:42:35 AM
1759 Views
Okay, so we have pretty much established that we are all human and have something of a character.
- 30/01/2011 05:04:07 PM
1785 Views
Damn, I'm missing a Katie game. Stupid broken laptop. *NM*
- 30/01/2011 10:34:20 PM
1188 Views
I doubt names could be dangerous
- 31/01/2011 05:09:05 AM
1819 Views
Man... you'd think someone would have come up with a good Day One strategy by now *NM*
- 31/01/2011 05:32:09 AM
1024 Views
Let's lynch someone!
- 31/01/2011 12:30:47 PM
1801 Views
Now, now...
- 31/01/2011 05:39:47 PM
1801 Views
KILL THE LAWYER
- 31/01/2011 05:59:10 PM
1732 Views
I'm not advocating giving out job titles, but I'll release mine too.
- 31/01/2011 07:04:05 PM
1788 Views
This needs to stop, IMO.
- 01/02/2011 12:46:59 AM
1767 Views
I agree with this
- 01/02/2011 04:57:59 PM
1682 Views
But didn't we see from the intro that there are no clever mafia? *NM*
- 01/02/2011 11:53:29 PM
941 Views
A quick idea:
- 01/02/2011 09:46:45 PM
1791 Views
I am aligned with the town *NM*
- 03/02/2011 12:46:10 AM
994 Views
However
- 03/02/2011 12:49:54 AM
1741 Views
Re: However
- 03/02/2011 01:00:46 AM
1804 Views
On that score
- 03/02/2011 11:12:08 AM
1673 Views
I see...so you think it was uselss?
- 03/02/2011 04:38:28 PM
1813 Views
Son of a
- 02/02/2011 12:51:51 AM
1683 Views
oh no!
- 02/02/2011 04:57:48 AM
1773 Views
I have good news, actually!
- 02/02/2011 02:23:06 PM
1690 Views
Re: I have good news, actually!
- 02/02/2011 03:42:16 PM
1673 Views
We had the first snow day today in 11 years.
*NM*
- 02/02/2011 04:22:00 PM
950 Views
*NM*
- 02/02/2011 04:22:00 PM
950 Views
In 11 years? o.O
- 02/02/2011 04:46:07 PM
1603 Views
Ah, it snows here all the time.
- 02/02/2011 05:38:17 PM
1784 Views
It's always a question of infrastructure.
- 02/02/2011 05:46:32 PM
1737 Views
I had my first snow day the day before my schools thanksgiving break this year.
- 02/02/2011 07:13:33 PM
1725 Views
You americans are all too soft!
- 02/02/2011 09:47:21 PM
1843 Views
- 02/02/2011 09:47:21 PM
1843 Views
Hey I'm under three feet now!
- 02/02/2011 11:00:42 PM
1650 Views
Vote: Stephen
- 02/02/2011 05:31:47 PM
1717 Views
Why not be suspicious of isaac then?
- 02/02/2011 05:42:12 PM
1713 Views
and what complete twat uses his/her full name on the internet? its asking for trouble
- 02/02/2011 07:04:07 PM
1694 Views
Meh, I'm always suspicious of Isaac
- 03/02/2011 07:52:48 PM
1777 Views
Guys! Murder!
- 03/02/2011 07:54:11 PM
1756 Views
Well, it still is your day, seeing as you are all alive and everything *NM*
- 03/02/2011 08:55:23 PM
942 Views
Re: Well, it still is your day, seeing as you are all alive and everything
- 03/02/2011 11:48:03 PM
1817 Views
I was badly paraphrasing a quote from WoT
- 04/02/2011 12:14:36 AM
1806 Views
Quote found:
- 04/02/2011 12:20:48 AM
1772 Views
I find myself concerned about our apparent enemy
- 05/02/2011 01:59:12 AM
2042 Views
Re: I find myself concerned about our apparent enemy
- 05/02/2011 03:13:18 AM
1737 Views
I really don't wee where this accusation is coming from.
- 05/02/2011 06:50:38 PM
1790 Views
I think you protest too much
- 05/02/2011 08:34:40 PM
1921 Views
Re: I think you protest too much
- 05/02/2011 10:11:50 PM
1770 Views
Re: I think you protest too much
- 05/02/2011 10:31:40 PM
1750 Views
Okay. A few things:
- 05/02/2011 07:49:46 PM
1789 Views
Re: Okay. A few things:
- 05/02/2011 08:05:49 PM
1621 Views
If there was a cult, then it could change if someone was recruited
- 05/02/2011 08:58:23 PM
1611 Views
What Beet said. Also look at Judas and Saulus on Mafiawiki. I'll link it.
- 05/02/2011 09:08:37 PM
1770 Views
Potentially
- 05/02/2011 09:25:26 PM
1624 Views
I feel like this akin to Hypocopping. It's not game-breaking.
- 05/02/2011 10:34:21 PM
1826 Views
Big difference
- 05/02/2011 10:51:45 PM
1766 Views
Maybe a variation...
- 06/02/2011 12:25:37 AM
1742 Views
I can't see how that would work
- 06/02/2011 01:32:51 AM
1691 Views
I'm tending to agree with you after thinking about it, but yes. Lets wait until post-game to discuss *NM*
- 06/02/2011 01:59:32 AM
1054 Views
This day has been dragginf rather long.
- 05/02/2011 10:04:42 PM
1763 Views
duh! vote for someone
- 05/02/2011 10:09:16 PM
1725 Views
I still think we should lynch Stephen
- 05/02/2011 10:57:23 PM
1772 Views
Didn't realise the point of the game was to sate your ego, and thirst for fame.
- 06/02/2011 12:11:25 AM
1740 Views
I see some options right now.
- 07/02/2011 06:34:11 PM
1825 Views
We have a lot of people talking in the intro.
- 07/02/2011 09:15:14 PM
1741 Views
I'm probably the "weathered farmer" *NM*
- 07/02/2011 09:51:13 PM
1081 Views
"All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 07/02/2011 10:58:00 PM
1745 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 07/02/2011 11:07:59 PM
1807 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 07/02/2011 11:48:37 PM
1789 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 08/02/2011 12:25:31 AM
1724 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 08/02/2011 01:10:23 AM
1752 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 08/02/2011 01:21:53 AM
1782 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 08/02/2011 10:59:15 PM
1583 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 09/02/2011 12:07:25 AM
1569 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 09/02/2011 12:24:25 AM
1601 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 09/02/2011 02:37:45 AM
1696 Views
Re: "All right Katie what's this all about?" The one with the pitch fork?
- 09/02/2011 10:06:46 PM
1641 Views
Probably? Did your RM have you saying something, or were you just basing it off of the farmer fact? *NM*
- 08/02/2011 01:20:46 AM
932 Views
As mentioned above, I was jsut basing it off of the farmer fact.
- 08/02/2011 01:22:46 AM
1822 Views
I'd want to double check, but...
- 07/02/2011 10:04:03 PM
1633 Views
I also speak in the intro. Probably should have said that in my last post. *NM*
- 08/02/2011 01:19:17 AM
1050 Views
By the end of the week, I plan on voting for someone.
- 09/02/2011 06:24:48 PM
1627 Views
I think we should vote for someone who hasn't been participating much.
- 10/02/2011 06:17:55 AM
1708 Views
Isn't that always the plan when we run out of ideas on who to lynch? *NM*
- 10/02/2011 06:44:02 AM
972 Views
Well, sometimes it's no-lynch, but I'm not going to suggest that, obviously
.
- 10/02/2011 07:36:19 AM
1707 Views
.
- 10/02/2011 07:36:19 AM
1707 Views
Good with me.
- 10/02/2011 10:49:25 PM
1752 Views
Re: Good with me.
- 10/02/2011 10:58:52 PM
1698 Views
Are we really down to random lynch?
- 10/02/2011 08:47:16 AM
1770 Views
Why we should vote for you.
- 11/02/2011 04:26:05 PM
1858 Views
I feel like it might come down to voting for you
- 12/02/2011 12:47:13 AM
1729 Views
- 12/02/2011 12:47:13 AM
1729 Views
Re: I feel like it might come down to voting for you
- 12/02/2011 07:07:29 PM
1663 Views
- 12/02/2011 07:07:29 PM
1663 Views
Re: I feel like it might come down to voting for you
- 12/02/2011 07:59:55 PM
1816 Views
- 12/02/2011 07:59:55 PM
1816 Views
Hm, let's take a look at the numbers...
- 13/02/2011 05:17:19 PM
1793 Views
Re: Hm, let's take a look at the numbers...
- 13/02/2011 05:25:11 PM
1744 Views
Now that I have two votes...
- 13/02/2011 05:57:39 PM
1689 Views
He has a point *NM*
- 13/02/2011 06:31:07 PM
956 Views
Haha do I talk about reading the future in entrails that often? As for the rest...
- 12/02/2011 04:34:50 AM
1708 Views
I'll be the first to admit that a Lie Detector Role is unlikely to appear in this game.
- 14/02/2011 08:13:15 PM
1766 Views
DEADLINE
- 13/02/2011 06:45:07 PM
1732 Views
I know already that I'm going to be RBIRL next weekend (friday-sunday). *NM*
- 13/02/2011 08:20:27 PM
945 Views
I'd like Isaac to clarify one of his posts from earlier.
- 13/02/2011 10:09:02 PM
1784 Views
It's tricky to clarify paranoid ramblings
- 14/02/2011 12:30:51 AM
1826 Views
Hmm, I don't know.
- 14/02/2011 01:05:05 AM
1681 Views
Did you just accuse me?
- 14/02/2011 01:09:43 AM
1685 Views
- 14/02/2011 01:09:43 AM
1685 Views
Re: Did you just accuse me?
- 14/02/2011 01:34:47 AM
1789 Views
- 14/02/2011 01:34:47 AM
1789 Views
Re: Did you just accuse me?
- 14/02/2011 01:59:50 AM
1624 Views
- 14/02/2011 01:59:50 AM
1624 Views
I can't say I have any questions for you.
- 14/02/2011 02:04:41 AM
1834 Views
It is rather difficult for me to rebut an accusation of that sort
- 14/02/2011 02:10:49 AM
1688 Views
Could someone clarify what this 'slip up' was by the way?
- 14/02/2011 01:17:59 AM
1779 Views
My biggest confusion,
- 14/02/2011 04:43:47 AM
1592 Views
Okay
- 14/02/2011 05:14:55 AM
1711 Views
Speaking Parts (Table)
- 15/02/2011 02:17:25 AM
1706 Views
Further consideration of my vote. Unvote, Vote: Bergioyn
- 15/02/2011 03:10:42 AM
1797 Views
Bergioyn has been ticking the back of my mind for a good chunk of the game.
- 15/02/2011 04:13:58 AM
1715 Views
Yeah, I think if elections were today, Bergioyn would get my vote. *NM*
- 15/02/2011 05:46:34 AM
994 Views
If your reason for voting me is that I have third least posts, shouldn't you be voting for whoever
- 15/02/2011 03:28:18 PM
1728 Views
Well, odds are no one is lying about speaking roles (Table)
- 15/02/2011 04:25:15 PM
1684 Views
Agreed.
- 15/02/2011 04:30:58 PM
1671 Views
Usually - also I guess I have a plan
- 15/02/2011 04:52:40 PM
1764 Views
I honestly don't know how useful your first list is
- 15/02/2011 06:06:39 PM
1829 Views
I agree with beet here. I don't see your list as being all that good. *NM*
- 15/02/2011 09:43:00 PM
1001 Views
There's room for legit objection to the list, I made some, but I note the 3 who object aren't on it
- 16/02/2011 04:15:16 AM
1779 Views
So, why don't you suspect Fox and Ravens, again?
- 16/02/2011 05:27:36 AM
1747 Views
I'd thought that was fairly clear
- 16/02/2011 06:05:28 AM
1726 Views
Ehhh I don't think this requires as much deliberation as you think.
- 16/02/2011 06:29:06 AM
1691 Views
Hard to tell, if a scummer who had answered could let us know we'd have data
- 16/02/2011 06:51:10 AM
1775 Views
- 16/02/2011 06:51:10 AM
1775 Views
No, that's ridiculous.
- 15/02/2011 08:14:26 PM
1757 Views
Your rebuttal seems rather off the mark
- 16/02/2011 04:09:49 AM
1770 Views
Hmm? My objection had nothing to do with the pool of candidates.
- 16/02/2011 08:03:15 AM
1784 Views
Re: Well, odds are no one is lying about speaking roles.
- 15/02/2011 09:40:45 PM
1696 Views
Re: Well, odds are no one is lying about speaking roles.
- 15/02/2011 10:30:44 PM
1676 Views
I think "unusually erudite hobo" is right in DK's sense of humor *NM*
- 16/02/2011 12:37:32 AM
1032 Views
Yeah, I thought the same thing. But that would be a very DK thing to do.
- 16/02/2011 04:18:09 PM
1787 Views
So does anyone want to hazard a guess as to what roles we do have?
- 15/02/2011 09:24:59 PM
1719 Views
PS those roles were taken from the mafiascum wiki's list of basic roles *NM*
- 15/02/2011 09:26:04 PM
1060 Views
Sure.
- 15/02/2011 09:37:38 PM
1813 Views
Re: Sure.
- 15/02/2011 10:25:16 PM
1770 Views
Too many mafia are usually a hindrance, actually.
- 15/02/2011 10:56:59 PM
1740 Views
Plus, remember that their win condition is "Achieve a majority in the town"
- 16/02/2011 12:40:50 AM
1704 Views
Re: Sure.
- 15/02/2011 11:04:55 PM
1762 Views
I wouldn't
- 16/02/2011 12:09:38 AM
1715 Views
Oh, Darth_Katie's was the game we started off lylo?
- 16/02/2011 01:13:04 AM
1749 Views
I think that was one of Kronin's games you're thinking of.
- 16/02/2011 01:56:21 AM
1889 Views
I'm torn here.
- 16/02/2011 08:59:23 PM
1766 Views
So, it seems like the two candidates are ranagrande and Bergioyn
- 17/02/2011 12:06:48 AM
1685 Views
Unvote
- 17/02/2011 01:26:24 AM
1700 Views
If this is the general feeling. I shall go along. *NM*
- 17/02/2011 01:36:06 AM
1018 Views
Cool. If you, stephen, and a couple more people vote, we'll have a lynch *NM*
- 17/02/2011 02:58:49 AM
1043 Views
This is crap.
- 17/02/2011 07:31:46 AM
1755 Views
Pretty much
- 17/02/2011 03:07:00 PM
1816 Views
Also, I'm not sure if we 7 votes yet but let's not have anymore votes for the moment
- 17/02/2011 03:16:34 PM
1722 Views
Okay, Vote Table, L-1 apparently
- 17/02/2011 03:58:43 PM
1720 Views
Yeah.
- 17/02/2011 08:39:50 PM
1676 Views
Rc
- 17/02/2011 07:54:22 PM
1798 Views
I'll hold off the hammer for the moment
- 18/02/2011 12:01:52 AM
1766 Views
I doubt that'll happen.
- 18/02/2011 02:52:04 AM
1769 Views
Your discussing nothing. Unvote, Vote: Bergioyn *NM*
- 18/02/2011 04:28:17 PM
1052 Views
How odd...
- 18/02/2011 04:48:28 PM
1731 Views
I think he was just impatient and frustrated *NM*
- 18/02/2011 05:12:01 PM
1038 Views
he's not the only one
- 18/02/2011 06:45:22 PM
1680 Views
Yeah, but ending it early and cutting off discussion and planning doesn't help.
- 18/02/2011 07:26:14 PM
1872 Views
But suicide?
- 18/02/2011 09:29:27 PM
1748 Views
Well, let's be hypotetical here.
- 18/02/2011 09:32:45 PM
1730 Views
...Scum...? *NM*
- 18/02/2011 10:36:33 PM
1034 Views
That is really weird
- 18/02/2011 06:38:15 PM
1657 Views
Too late, I got there first
*NM*
- 18/02/2011 08:45:22 PM
1062 Views
*NM*
- 18/02/2011 08:45:22 PM
1062 Views
No rule against being the super hammer! *NM*
- 18/02/2011 08:56:21 PM
993 Views
Technically, Day ends with the lynch, so we shouldn't be posting at all.
- 18/02/2011 09:46:38 PM
1643 Views
Re: Technically, Day ends with the lynch, so we shouldn't be posting at all.
- 18/02/2011 10:03:11 PM
1712 Views


*NM*