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So, what now? Isaac Send a noteboard - 10/11/2011 12:49:12 AM
First, we have to consider whether Rana or I are telling the truth, coding yourself as cop on Day 1 when you're not is a big risk, and not on my estimate one I'd have taken as a scummer, but it is one I would have considered seriously for this game format if I was scum. I'm assuming neither Yuna or ? are cops or they'd have said as much, we'll need to wait to see if any of the other 4 claim cop, Stephen, Fox, beet, or Hieshyn... as that would change the analysis a lot on possible weirdness. We could simply have a psycho cop and a regular cop or both of us might be nuts in the same or different fashion, and I can't see testing ?/Kron or Beet to destruction to find out which, though the former would be my choice since Rana has a case, if one I consider thin, on ?/Kron whereas my reasons for selecting beet were strictly threat analysis. We need everyone to confirm they aren't a cop first though.

Assuming Rana and I are both telling the truth, then I'd say the odds of us having 3 scum are low, as one or more flawed investigators is a heck of an anti-town bent to throw on top of 3 scum in a 10 player game. Such being the case, both of us basically had a 1 in 4 chance of finding a scummer in our investigations, having 8 people each to pick from, and a 1 in 16 if we're both sane of having gotten two different people who were both guilty, which is worsened since my target as previously mentioned seems unaligned to rana's target. It's actually pretty good odds we're both nuts, since the odds of the 'true cop' getting a scummer result weren't great. We also don't know what kinda nuts either or both of us might be, we could have the 'get the opposite result' insane cop, or the 'get guilty all the time' cop, or one of the variations often seen in themed games like Whitecloak Inquisitor who gets guilty results off any darkfriend or channeler/warder. I'd not be surprised if the poem shed some light on this too, and the flavor of it already fed my suspiscion of nuts. Either way, it's a good thing we know now... we can also assume ?'s old character wasn't a cop, as he was town and said he had no active ability, we don't and won't know about DK though.

Personally I think we're both telling the truth, that seems most probable, and I doubted my result more because I've been a psycho-cop before and because unlike Rana I didn't have prior suspicions involved in my choice, to him, he suspected his target and got the answer he expected, to me, it was an improbable result to be distrusted and I suppose one could argue that I went looking for evidence to support my own expectations :P
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Game 24, Day 2 - Game has ended - 06/11/2011 06:04:27 PM 1278 Views
I'm actually a bit surprised by the choice of ? - 06/11/2011 07:34:57 PM 1143 Views
Yes, it was an oversight. He was a townie. *NM* - 06/11/2011 08:01:11 PM 473 Views
Voting record: - 07/11/2011 05:25:40 PM 1042 Views
Was he suspicious of anyone yesterday? - 07/11/2011 02:52:26 PM 839 Views
Re: Was he suspicious of anyone yesterday? - 07/11/2011 03:36:31 PM 1000 Views
I think a second look at our poetry is in order too, now we have more of it - 07/11/2011 12:43:21 AM 973 Views
... and the two things - 07/11/2011 01:29:31 AM 990 Views
I object to this plan. - 07/11/2011 02:07:35 AM 888 Views
UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 02:59:27 PM 780 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 06:23:42 PM 909 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 08:17:53 PM 811 Views
Wait, would everyone be picking their own two letters? Ah, ok, it's not as dangerous as I thought - 07/11/2011 08:20:32 PM 814 Views
Yes *NM* - 07/11/2011 08:41:04 PM 463 Views
and follow that to the logical conclusion... - 07/11/2011 08:40:43 PM 1067 Views
no *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:19:20 PM 499 Views
FT already banned it *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:20:45 PM 457 Views
I know, I'm just voicing my opinion *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:27:34 PM 387 Views
Besides the ban, I can't see why you'd object - 07/11/2011 06:44:14 PM 846 Views
errrm, i don't think no is a strong enough word for this *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:58:09 PM 591 Views
? will be replacing Kronin... - 07/11/2011 01:56:08 AM 857 Views
Vote: ? - 07/11/2011 02:33:43 PM 1032 Views
Re: Vote: ? - 07/11/2011 02:42:15 PM 1153 Views
I'll echo that vote. - 07/11/2011 06:15:21 PM 1026 Views
He could have just been being polite - 07/11/2011 06:34:30 PM 1197 Views
Very good point, I think a roleclaim from ?, using Kronin's coded roleclaim from yesterday - 07/11/2011 08:22:45 PM 986 Views
? can't decode Kronin's RC, and he wouldn't be allowed to give his own - 07/11/2011 08:45:50 PM 913 Views
yeah I could go ahead and roleclaim if you want... - 07/11/2011 08:56:41 PM 861 Views
No, I don't want you to claim - 07/11/2011 08:57:47 PM 790 Views
Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:06:06 PM 826 Views
Re: Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:06:23 PM 885 Views
Re: Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:09:04 PM 857 Views
I oh got confused. - 08/11/2011 02:41:46 AM 908 Views
That is not the case against Kronin. - 07/11/2011 09:48:52 PM 721 Views
I don't think substitution is enough - 07/11/2011 10:25:27 PM 988 Views
Anybody else get a chuckle out of this? *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:36:28 PM 446 Views
Ignore the *NM* *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:43:16 PM 438 Views
doubly so... - 07/11/2011 06:49:05 PM 1002 Views
out of what? *NM* - 07/11/2011 07:51:06 PM 431 Views
Shrug, I think we should still get a roleclaim from ?/Kronin - 08/11/2011 01:51:24 PM 962 Views
I coded a claim above...in response to Isaac I think... - 08/11/2011 08:46:07 PM 898 Views
Re: I coded a claim above...in response to Isaac I think... - 08/11/2011 09:39:45 PM 959 Views
Heh. Die? Die! His username makes that weird. *NM* - 08/11/2011 10:55:22 PM 488 Views
eh - 08/11/2011 10:40:47 PM 928 Views
What am I missing here? - 08/11/2011 02:32:14 PM 924 Views
Re: What am I missing here? - 08/11/2011 08:38:19 PM 936 Views
Semi-RBIRL - 09/11/2011 05:26:11 AM 847 Views
Vote: Beetnemesis - 09/11/2011 10:24:06 PM 1029 Views
RC decode - 09/11/2011 10:35:52 PM 992 Views
Bah, now I have to claim as well - 09/11/2011 10:46:37 PM 883 Views
All right, let's proceed sanely then - 09/11/2011 10:51:12 PM 872 Views
OK, Unvote - 09/11/2011 11:23:35 PM 781 Views
decoding: - 09/11/2011 11:22:31 PM 917 Views
Would you mind walking through that last step? - 09/11/2011 11:44:30 PM 880 Views
Not at all. - 10/11/2011 12:09:09 AM 883 Views
Okay I confirm your decode then - 10/11/2011 12:16:22 AM 861 Views
... *NM* - 10/11/2011 01:59:58 PM 540 Views
Woah. Problems. - 09/11/2011 11:32:40 PM 814 Views
there is something really fishy going on... *NM* - 09/11/2011 11:34:09 PM 447 Views
what? - 09/11/2011 11:32:45 PM 704 Views
Re: what? - 09/11/2011 11:34:16 PM 748 Views
Actually, there's a strong chance neither is lying - 09/11/2011 11:53:35 PM 1068 Views
So, what now? - 10/11/2011 12:49:12 AM 1154 Views
Is or Is Not a Cop (Table) - 10/11/2011 12:52:52 AM 926 Views
I am not a cop. *NM* - 10/11/2011 01:04:38 AM 369 Views
I'm the daycop. Vote: Ranagrande. - 10/11/2011 01:41:59 AM 870 Views
EBWOP: here's the code. - 10/11/2011 01:43:00 AM 730 Views
Decode confirmed - 10/11/2011 02:08:26 AM 743 Views
Yeah, forgot to say I used Vignere. *NM* - 10/11/2011 02:18:31 AM 439 Views
EBWOP again - 10/11/2011 01:44:04 AM 712 Views
Stand by for the moment - 10/11/2011 01:49:38 AM 893 Views
Jesus...I REALLY need to read everything before I start posting. - 10/11/2011 01:54:11 AM 894 Views
Add to that the next follow up, that ? might previously have been a Day Cop too - 10/11/2011 02:04:29 AM 943 Views
It's possible... - 10/11/2011 02:18:02 AM 864 Views
Re: It's possible... - 10/11/2011 02:30:00 AM 1186 Views
I am a daycop. I found Isaac innocent. *NM* - 10/11/2011 02:02:05 PM 486 Views
We still need you role decode *NM* - 10/11/2011 06:19:53 PM 409 Views
(I did, in my other message) - 10/11/2011 07:18:43 PM 706 Views
Okay, got ya, decode confirmed *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:02:55 PM 424 Views
i am a cop - 10/11/2011 07:00:14 PM 725 Views
and my decode - 10/11/2011 07:14:38 PM 896 Views
Yep, decode confirmed *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:06:16 PM 488 Views
Also, which ? did you check? - 10/11/2011 08:08:05 PM 802 Views
original ? - 10/11/2011 08:10:30 PM 909 Views
Thanks *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:11:13 PM 402 Views
Not a cop *NM* - 10/11/2011 11:48:27 PM 656 Views
To the decode-mobile! *plays 60s Batman music* - 11/11/2011 02:32:06 PM 791 Views
Let's take another look at that poem - 10/11/2011 01:44:36 AM 979 Views
Hahaha I have to read all of these posts, but FT, you're insane. - 10/11/2011 01:58:01 PM 952 Views
FT IS insane. Turns out I was missing something after all. *NM* - 10/11/2011 09:59:56 PM 388 Views
OK! Here we go: - 10/11/2011 02:23:10 PM 955 Views
Re: OK! Here we go: - 10/11/2011 05:52:25 PM 1022 Views
I think it's time to consider mass RC - 10/11/2011 08:15:36 PM 804 Views
Sure... - 10/11/2011 09:19:49 PM 1058 Views
There's a lot of options still, and decode confirmed by the way - 10/11/2011 09:48:05 PM 1053 Views
I have been nominated! - 10/11/2011 10:30:37 PM 927 Views
Thanks - 10/11/2011 10:36:36 PM 980 Views
My pleasure *NM* - 10/11/2011 10:44:23 PM 379 Views
*NM* - 10/11/2011 11:21:59 PM 411 Views
Not saying that that is right of course... - 10/11/2011 11:23:23 PM 883 Views
Hmm... - 10/11/2011 11:20:50 PM 750 Views
I totally agree. - 10/11/2011 09:54:25 PM 801 Views
The wasy I see it, anybody not claiming cop is going to get lynched - 10/11/2011 11:57:24 PM 935 Views
Lying and claiming cop when you can't decode your RC will get you lynched faster. *NM* - 11/11/2011 12:33:05 AM 414 Views
Which I didn't do *NM* - 11/11/2011 02:05:30 AM 449 Views
I know, I know. - 11/11/2011 03:57:51 AM 775 Views
Fox, did you get a response on your investigation? *NM* - 11/11/2011 12:20:12 AM 500 Views
I hadn't performed one yet. - 11/11/2011 12:34:48 AM 882 Views
Isaac - 11/11/2011 02:00:18 AM 980 Views
Or me - 11/11/2011 02:07:10 AM 897 Views
I'd recommend ? - 11/11/2011 02:15:24 AM 755 Views
Bring it. - 11/11/2011 03:10:14 AM 804 Views
Someone who has already been copped - 11/11/2011 03:57:08 AM 747 Views
I'll investigate ? because yuna's the other daycop - 11/11/2011 04:00:49 AM 757 Views
Wait a minute....I meant that I would be testing it against rana. Not yuna - 11/11/2011 01:39:16 PM 1037 Views
no i'm not, im a normal cop *NM* - 11/11/2011 09:18:23 PM 482 Views
I had everything messed up anyway *NM* - 12/11/2011 10:45:54 PM 427 Views
Vote: Beetnemisis/RBIRL - 11/11/2011 02:04:35 AM 826 Views
Hey people sorry for the unexpected RBIRL - 11/11/2011 11:47:11 AM 985 Views
RBIRL here too. - 11/11/2011 01:34:45 PM 748 Views
I'm thinking either Hieshyn or ? - 11/11/2011 04:32:16 PM 898 Views
It kinda seems like Hieshyn and ? are our logical lynch targets, plus Cop (Table) - 11/11/2011 10:09:52 PM 1103 Views
Fox investigated ? and found him innocent *NM* - 11/11/2011 10:41:39 PM 408 Views
Vote: ? - 11/11/2011 10:46:43 PM 763 Views
Yeah, that seems logical next step, Vote: ? - 13/11/2011 02:59:25 AM 1085 Views
mrr, vote ? then *NM* - 13/11/2011 10:27:49 AM 582 Views
Think my vote was on ? already. - 13/11/2011 04:26:49 PM 885 Views
Vote: ? *NM* - 14/11/2011 02:27:20 AM 524 Views
That should be lynch with yours, so... - 14/11/2011 03:07:36 AM 817 Views
? Has been lynched - 14/11/2011 03:50:31 AM 973 Views
Game ends. - 14/11/2011 10:25:04 PM 850 Views
Role list: - 14/11/2011 10:26:32 PM 891 Views
Jeeez. - 14/11/2011 11:43:47 PM 846 Views
Kronin originally RC as a Tracker so we might have done better if we had been able to continue *NM* - 15/11/2011 12:06:07 AM 423 Views
Not even cause tracker is still the odd man out. - 15/11/2011 12:20:17 AM 848 Views
That might have worked but everyone would have had targets - 15/11/2011 02:20:43 AM 935 Views
Maybe, but I still would have known he was guilty. *NM* - 15/11/2011 02:55:43 AM 396 Views
You were paranoid, amusingly enough. - 15/11/2011 02:59:43 AM 857 Views
Ya there was no hope for us *NM* - 15/11/2011 12:04:06 AM 431 Views
YAY! - 14/11/2011 10:48:54 PM 831 Views
Wow. *NM* - 15/11/2011 01:09:28 AM 489 Views
Also I would like to be added to the list of future Moderator - 15/11/2011 12:07:51 AM 717 Views
You'd have first dibs via our order of precedence system - 15/11/2011 02:05:04 AM 970 Views
Also whoever Mods should probably post a recruitment thread on some other NBs - 15/11/2011 02:50:02 AM 893 Views
I expect my next game to draw in some new players. - 15/11/2011 02:58:59 AM 858 Views
More is better, okay that would be Hieshyn or Beet then, unless ? wants to toss in - 15/11/2011 03:26:25 AM 838 Views
Nope I'm not ready to mod yet... - 15/11/2011 08:29:24 PM 770 Views
hey - 15/11/2011 09:46:28 PM 722 Views
It's Hieshyn's if he wants it, otherwise I can go next. - 15/11/2011 12:40:13 PM 887 Views
I'm not ready to go next - 15/11/2011 02:43:07 PM 964 Views
Aight, I think it's me then. - 15/11/2011 03:15:21 PM 729 Views
Re: Aight, I think it's me then. - 15/11/2011 04:09:07 PM 926 Views
Deathless Mafia? Is that a thing? SQUEE, Mistborn! *NM* - 15/11/2011 10:15:49 PM 385 Views
If it wasn't a thing before, it is now! *NM* - 15/11/2011 10:53:14 PM 386 Views
ooooh - 15/11/2011 11:27:26 PM 770 Views
You've got a week to read the last 2....GO, GO, GO!! *NM* - 15/11/2011 11:43:21 PM 410 Views
hah! i could read both in two days - 16/11/2011 07:56:58 PM 799 Views
Just for you, the game shall be spoiler free! *NM* - 16/11/2011 12:12:24 AM 382 Views
Speaking of which, any timeline yet? - 19/11/2011 07:25:11 PM 789 Views
Sounds fantastic - 16/11/2011 12:10:06 AM 937 Views
That could also be fantastic. *NM* - 16/11/2011 12:13:29 AM 432 Views
I AM ALL SORTS OF PUMPED. *NM* - 16/11/2011 09:11:38 PM 454 Views
Though may or may not actually be playing... *NM* - 16/11/2011 09:11:58 PM 388 Views
Before the next game starts, we probably need to discuss RC coding - 15/11/2011 02:15:27 AM 1069 Views
Yeah, I really didn't like that idea. - 15/11/2011 02:58:21 AM 1159 Views
An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:08:17 AM 975 Views
Re: An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:36:38 AM 865 Views
Re: An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:43:39 AM 1207 Views
I really didn't like it either. - 16/11/2011 06:20:33 PM 854 Views
I liked my plan: Random voting ftw! *NM* - 16/11/2011 06:29:07 PM 426 Views

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